Posted:
#26
Great thoughts this week bro.
Took HOU +3.5, GB pk, and CIN +3
Just think at the end of the day the KC/HOU game is a grinder/flip and I'll gladly take the 3.5 and pay to see KC score enough points on the road to beat a great D by margin.
Went to my notebook on the playoffs and have this one: "Up and coming teams that haven't been to the playoffs before seem to get bombed in their first game". Just anecdotal observation I had over the years and never got around to looking it up. However, I heard this week that teams that are in the playoffs after winning 4 or fewer games the year before are 2-15 SU and 1-16 ATS. I don't know if that's true as I haven't looked it up myself but I suspect it is based on what I've seen over the years. WSH fits the bill and are in trouble. I pounded GB. This is also what a call a "hindsight game"...meaning in hindsight am I going to feel like an idiot holding a certain ticket. And if I'm holding a ticket that has Kirk Cousins with a bad D to beat Aaron Rodgers then I'm going to feel moronic. Speaking of which...
AJ McCarron over Big Ben?!?!? Yes, on it's face it looks moronic. But I think the rest of the Bengals team is so solid that it mitigates the disadvantage they have at QB. Cincy has a Top 5 o-line, Top 5 skill guys, and a great pass D. Their only real weakness was run D at 4.3 YPC but there's an asterisk. Burfict is their best run defender and he missed the first 6 games of the year. He still finished 3rd on the team in tackles but Cincy gave up 4.9 YPC without him and 3.9 YPC with him in the lineup which would put them in the Top 10. Bengals also have the intangible edge to me. These guys have heard all year how their great season meant nothing unless they won a playoff game. At home as pups, with IMO the superior team and easily the best one they've had in the last 4 years I think it's a great chance to shut everyone up.
GL bro.
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That Houston line don't want to move!!! At one point, I thought it was gonna be KC -3 -150/Houston +130, and now it's -110 across the board. Regardless I'm taking Houston.....
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