So many people on this site calling this a "trap-game"...yet the line continues to climb even with Jordy getting hurt...
Maybe the "trap" is thinking the Bears at home getting 6 or 6.5 is good value 
lookahead on tap. 
First. Saying that
Rodgers has “struggled” v Vic Fangio is an inaccurate statement. Rodgers faced Fangio 4 times when Fangio was
the DC for San Francisco. In those four
games Rodgers had a 64.4% completion percentage, averaged 284 yards passing,
while having an 8/3 TD/INT Ratio. And you
must factor in that this was going up against a San Francisco defense that was
the best in the NFL at the time.
Second. Saying that
GBs defense is “garbage” this year is also inaccurate. At this point, all we have to gauge is their
preseason, and the Packers never fielded the defense that will be starting this
coming Sunday. Not mentioning the precautionary
steps taken with Matthews, the Packers experimented with many different
combinations in their back-end due to the loss of Sam Shields. Therefore, they had a couple different rookies
playing the corner and nickel spots to determine what combination would look
best. Now. I’m not saying that the Packers defense is
top 5 (but probably top 10). They still
have really good players at all three levels, and have two things that you need
in order to field a good defense; a solid corner and pass rusher(s). And it doesn’t hurt that BJ Raji is back in
the fold, slimmed down and ready to go.
Third. Saying that
the Packers where 3-3 on the road last year doesn’t apply to this game. Green Bay has OWNED Chicago in Chicago. Since Cutlers arrival in Chicago, the Packers
have played the Bears 12 times (6 in Chicago). and are 11-1. Furthermore, road games can’t be calculated
as just numbers. You have to look at who
they played as well. For instance, take
the Saints game for example. The Packers
lost to the Saints last season on the road.
But it was a Sunday night game with New Orleans needing a win badly due
to their poor start. Not many teams can
just stroll into a national televised night game, in that atmosphere against
Drew Brees, and come out with a win. Jay
Culter is no Drew Brees. The Packers
also lost to the Seahawks on the road last season. And, I don’t think I have to go into grave
detail on how hard it is to play in that Stadium, especially the first game of
the season when Seattle was raising the Super Bowl Banner. So basically, stating that Green Bay was “such
and such” on the road last season can be mis-leading. It’s not like they went on the road and
played Jacksonville, Oakland and the Browns.
You have to take into consideration the road losses and the situation
behind those losses.
Fourth. Mike McCarthy
has stated multiple times this fall camp that Green Bay needs to get off to a
fast start (due to their recent struggles the last 3 years at the beginning of
the season).. ..There is reason for
this. Green Bay understands that to get
back to the Super Bowl the playoffs need to go through Lambeau (going back to
Seattle in order to make the Super Bowl is not the ideal situation). Thus, starting off the season on a high note with
a win vs Chicago is the first step. Now,
does equate to a “cover” (?) well, no.
But, it does lead to a more focused team, understanding the gravity of
the game, even though it may only be the first game.
Lastly. Chicago just
doesn’t match up well with Green Bay.
Period. Their defense is still
too porous against Rodgers and because of that they have to rely on Jay Cutler
to match scores. This is where the
Bears get in trouble. All the news coming
out of the Bears camp is that Adam Gase has installed a more “ball control”
offense, with Cutler hitting his check-downs more and taking less chances with the
football; stressing “No Turnovers!” That’s
great. The problem is, what happens when
you’re down 10 to 14 points? The
pressure will be put back on Jay Cutler, where he hasn’t exactly been stellar. Sure, the Bears can run Forte and try to keep
Rodgers off the field, and that could work.. ..for awhile. But at some point, Rodgers is going to get
his and Chicago will need to rely on Culter to make plays, something he has
been incapable of doing time and time again.
In the end, this game isn’t about home underdogs, road
favorites or even Jordy Nelson’s injury.
It comes down to the match up.
And the matchup is awful for Chicago (which the trends obviously point
out). Last season, the Packers outscored
the Bears 93-31 in both contests. That
is a 62 point difference. Now all of a
sudden in one year with a new coach, brand new system on both sides of the
football, an influx of new players learning those systems, the loss of
experienced leaders and the same quarterback who had a 75.5 QBR with 3
touchdowns and 4 interceptions in the two meetings last season; we are supposed
to believe that Chicago has made up a 62 point difference? I guess that is for the gamblers to decide,
but I know one thing… .. If you sort through all the trash, the trends point
to Green Bay.
First. Saying that
Rodgers has “struggled” v Vic Fangio is an inaccurate statement. Rodgers faced Fangio 4 times when Fangio was
the DC for San Francisco. In those four
games Rodgers had a 64.4% completion percentage, averaged 284 yards passing,
while having an 8/3 TD/INT Ratio. And you
must factor in that this was going up against a San Francisco defense that was
the best in the NFL at the time.
Second. Saying that
GBs defense is “garbage” this year is also inaccurate. At this point, all we have to gauge is their
preseason, and the Packers never fielded the defense that will be starting this
coming Sunday. Not mentioning the precautionary
steps taken with Matthews, the Packers experimented with many different
combinations in their back-end due to the loss of Sam Shields. Therefore, they had a couple different rookies
playing the corner and nickel spots to determine what combination would look
best. Now. I’m not saying that the Packers defense is
top 5 (but probably top 10). They still
have really good players at all three levels, and have two things that you need
in order to field a good defense; a solid corner and pass rusher(s). And it doesn’t hurt that BJ Raji is back in
the fold, slimmed down and ready to go.
Third. Saying that
the Packers where 3-3 on the road last year doesn’t apply to this game. Green Bay has OWNED Chicago in Chicago. Since Cutlers arrival in Chicago, the Packers
have played the Bears 12 times (6 in Chicago). and are 11-1. Furthermore, road games can’t be calculated
as just numbers. You have to look at who
they played as well. For instance, take
the Saints game for example. The Packers
lost to the Saints last season on the road.
But it was a Sunday night game with New Orleans needing a win badly due
to their poor start. Not many teams can
just stroll into a national televised night game, in that atmosphere against
Drew Brees, and come out with a win. Jay
Culter is no Drew Brees. The Packers
also lost to the Seahawks on the road last season. And, I don’t think I have to go into grave
detail on how hard it is to play in that Stadium, especially the first game of
the season when Seattle was raising the Super Bowl Banner. So basically, stating that Green Bay was “such
and such” on the road last season can be mis-leading. It’s not like they went on the road and
played Jacksonville, Oakland and the Browns.
You have to take into consideration the road losses and the situation
behind those losses.
Fourth. Mike McCarthy
has stated multiple times this fall camp that Green Bay needs to get off to a
fast start (due to their recent struggles the last 3 years at the beginning of
the season).. ..There is reason for
this. Green Bay understands that to get
back to the Super Bowl the playoffs need to go through Lambeau (going back to
Seattle in order to make the Super Bowl is not the ideal situation). Thus, starting off the season on a high note with
a win vs Chicago is the first step. Now,
does equate to a “cover” (?) well, no.
But, it does lead to a more focused team, understanding the gravity of
the game, even though it may only be the first game.
Lastly. Chicago just
doesn’t match up well with Green Bay.
Period. Their defense is still
too porous against Rodgers and because of that they have to rely on Jay Cutler
to match scores. This is where the
Bears get in trouble. All the news coming
out of the Bears camp is that Adam Gase has installed a more “ball control”
offense, with Cutler hitting his check-downs more and taking less chances with the
football; stressing “No Turnovers!” That’s
great. The problem is, what happens when
you’re down 10 to 14 points? The
pressure will be put back on Jay Cutler, where he hasn’t exactly been stellar. Sure, the Bears can run Forte and try to keep
Rodgers off the field, and that could work.. ..for awhile. But at some point, Rodgers is going to get
his and Chicago will need to rely on Culter to make plays, something he has
been incapable of doing time and time again.
In the end, this game isn’t about home underdogs, road
favorites or even Jordy Nelson’s injury.
It comes down to the match up.
And the matchup is awful for Chicago (which the trends obviously point
out). Last season, the Packers outscored
the Bears 93-31 in both contests. That
is a 62 point difference. Now all of a
sudden in one year with a new coach, brand new system on both sides of the
football, an influx of new players learning those systems, the loss of
experienced leaders and the same quarterback who had a 75.5 QBR with 3
touchdowns and 4 interceptions in the two meetings last season; we are supposed
to believe that Chicago has made up a 62 point difference? I guess that is for the gamblers to decide,
but I know one thing… .. If you sort through all the trash, the trends point
to Green Bay.
Pkleves,
Have more faith in your defense (haha!). GB was ranked 13th to 15th
in total defense last season (depending on what you read) and were in the top
ten in a couple major categories (3rd down defense is very
important). Don’t get me wrong, I don’t
think you’re looking at a defense like the Buffalo Bills or Seattle Seahawks,
but as said, they have key pieces to field a solid defense. They do have some very good players that can
get to the quarterback (obviously a key ingredient) and have enough depth on
the back-end to make plays. I think
Clinton-Dix will take the next step personally (I understand he has to tackle
better – but that will come with time).
I also think Hyde is key to what they want to do, so he has to stay
healthy. You also have to remember, when
you have Aaron Rodgers and that offense, the defense doesn’t necessarily have
to take as many chances as other teams.. .. make teams drive the field with
consistency (and just don’t give up the big play).
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