Posted:
#51
Quote Originally Posted by BrewCrew82:
First off, I'm a Packer fan so let's just throw that out there. Secondly, I'm not a homer even though I've never bet against GB, but I always tell my gambling friends when to bet against GB (KC and NYG were prime examples). I'm not blind to bad lines when GB is favored by too much.
First off, I'm a Packer fan so let's just throw that out there. Secondly, I'm not a homer even though I've never bet against GB, but I always tell my gambling friends when to bet against GB (KC and NYG were prime examples). I'm not blind to bad lines when GB is favored by too much.
In this case, I think it is slightly too low and by the end of the week you will see it down to 7.5 (I doubt Vegas will give up the hook, but we will see).
Why I like GB:
1. Healthiest GB has been all year. 21 of their preferred 22 starters will be on the field (Nick Collins being the lone injury - which is a big loss).
Same can be said for the Giants. Their O-line, WR's, D-line and LB positions have been revolving doors the entire season. The number of injuries the Pack has suffered pails in comparison to what the Giants have suffered. They have finally gotten some stability on both sides of the ball.
2. GB's O-line will be at full strength with Clifton back (although he is still a bit rusty). On a slower track at Lambeau, I think GB will be able to slow down the pass rush enough to expose the Giants weak secondary (Giants will get a few sacks, but the pressure won't be relentless). To me, this is the Giants only shot at slowing (and beating) GB. With no crowd noise on offense, GB will have no issues making audibles at the line and getting off the ball better. See first game. NYG had a decent rush, but not overwhelming. GB puts up 38. Osi is back, but so is Sitton (GB's best O-lineman) and Clifton. Neither played in the first game.
The Giants defense was in shambles when these teams played the first time and it came down to the last possesssion. I don't think it's pure luck that they held the Cowboys and Falcons to a total of 14 pts.
3. GB's secondary - Yes it gives up yards, but it also led the league in INT's by a wide margin. Giants will make some plays, but I think this secondary will too.
Obviously you think the GB secondary who got torched by Eli earlier this season will play well, but the Giants secondary, who have vastly improved over the last month, will be in trouble. This is a typical homer statement.
4. Motivation - Everyone is picking the Giants because of their "momentum". Well, the disrespect card has been a year long thing. Despite being 15-1, the media has been picking at GB's faults a lot and many are picking GB to lose now (Rodgers even admitted he uses the media for motivation) . Throw in the 100% guarantee by JPP and a couple of recent events too (passing of LG TJ Lang's father and Joe Philbin's son - which admittedly may not mean much but then again this is a very tight nit team).
Motivation is not tangible. You don't think the Giants are motivated to go out and show the world they can play with anybody? Are you trying to tell me that the Packers are more motivated because JPP when asked if they would win said yes? Give me a break. I have a better word for you. How about Momentum. That is a little more real, and the Giants seem to have that on their side. Two weeks since Rodgers has played, Greg Jennings just getting back. I wouldn't be surprised to see some rust.
5. GB is 19-1 at home in their last 20. The lone loss was against Miami in OT last year when GB had 6 starters out (including Matthews and Finley). The odds of the Giants winning straight up are probably slim. Throw in that GB is 7-1 against the spread at home this year (which is the more important stat) and to me the bet favors GB.
What was the Patriots recent home record before the Giants went in there and beat them? What was their record at home coming off a SU Loss? Even better. This is football, not tennis. It's a team sport and the teams that are supposed to win, don't always win. The Giants are a better road team. They have proved that over the last half decade.
I told my friends before the wild card round that I hoped the Giants would crush Atlanta because the public (and Vegas would overreact). The line probably would have been double digits just a few weeks ago, but the Giants have beat up a few inconsistent teams so it is dropping close to the line back when they first played (which was a game to me that was a clear bet on the Giants).
In the NFC championship 4 years ago, I told as many people as I could in GB that the line was way over inflated at 7 points and of course we know what happened. There is no 36 year old QB this time, but a Green Bay QB at 28 playing at the peak of his game. Big difference.
One stat to think about favoring the Giants (they are 5-2 ATS as a dog). They are also confident and have a QB playing his best football. I just see GB coming out on fire in this game. A strong hunch on my part, but all is quiet in GB. There is no talk coming from them. I like that. They will be ready.
I'm going to let this line drop to 7.5 and then lay a nice bet on GB.
I happen to think this will be a close game either way. The Giants defense is peeking at the right time. They will be able to slow the Packers down enough. The Giants finally have a running game going and if it comes down to it, they will put the ball in Eli's hands. Not talked about much is how the Giants WR's and TE's are finally at full strength. Manningham is back healthy and is just another weapon for Eli to utilize.
Don't try to sell everybody that you are not a homer. Your post just screams HOMER. There are two sides to every game, not just the side you are rooting for.
Grab the points and the ML.
27-24 Giants
0
Hot Forum Topics
