To win the NFC (-130) and the Super Bowl (+210). I also got Seattle at +275 and -120. Yeah, it's a bit risky (guys can get hurt, lame turnovers, etc) but I'm willing to do it and here is why.
1) Seattle is the only dominant team in the playoffs. They have a heady, agile QB (who is on record, from last year, that he wants to win multiple rings, like Montana), a dominant runing back, a great defense and a very good coach.
2) They have experience and know what it takes to play at a championship level. More importantly, they look like a team that wants to repeat and win another Super Bowl.
3) They have a great home field advantage and if they make it to the SB, they are familiar with the stadium in Phoenix (as it is in their division) and have had dominant performances there (None of the AFC teams left in the playoffs even played there this year).
4) Rodgers has a partial tear in his calf. Even if they beat Dallas, he ain't beating Seattle (in Seattle) on one leg. Dallas beat Seattle in Seattle already and I have difficult time believing they can do it again in the same year.
5) Denver is fading (Payton is showing his age), the Pats don't have enough talent (or not as much as Seattle) and Indi or Baltimore would not stand a chance against the Hawks (or would provide great hedging opportunities, since they would be big underdogs).
Basically, Seattle is one win away from making these futures bets that much more attractive (and expensive). So instead of trying to play Nostradamus for the next couple of weeks, I'm just gonna take the best team to win it all. Good luck.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
To win the NFC (-130) and the Super Bowl (+210). I also got Seattle at +275 and -120. Yeah, it's a bit risky (guys can get hurt, lame turnovers, etc) but I'm willing to do it and here is why.
1) Seattle is the only dominant team in the playoffs. They have a heady, agile QB (who is on record, from last year, that he wants to win multiple rings, like Montana), a dominant runing back, a great defense and a very good coach.
2) They have experience and know what it takes to play at a championship level. More importantly, they look like a team that wants to repeat and win another Super Bowl.
3) They have a great home field advantage and if they make it to the SB, they are familiar with the stadium in Phoenix (as it is in their division) and have had dominant performances there (None of the AFC teams left in the playoffs even played there this year).
4) Rodgers has a partial tear in his calf. Even if they beat Dallas, he ain't beating Seattle (in Seattle) on one leg. Dallas beat Seattle in Seattle already and I have difficult time believing they can do it again in the same year.
5) Denver is fading (Payton is showing his age), the Pats don't have enough talent (or not as much as Seattle) and Indi or Baltimore would not stand a chance against the Hawks (or would provide great hedging opportunities, since they would be big underdogs).
Basically, Seattle is one win away from making these futures bets that much more attractive (and expensive). So instead of trying to play Nostradamus for the next couple of weeks, I'm just gonna take the best team to win it all. Good luck.
Just a tip. Perhaps the huge ML difference with Carolina changes this.
But… if you want to bet on a team to win the super bowl. You should just bet the money lines for each playoff game, and continue to roll over the winnings to the next game.
GL
Just a tip. Perhaps the huge ML difference with Carolina changes this.
But… if you want to bet on a team to win the super bowl. You should just bet the money lines for each playoff game, and continue to roll over the winnings to the next game.
Just a tip. Perhaps the huge ML difference with Carolina changes this.
But… if you want to bet on a team to win the super bowl. You should just bet the money lines for each playoff game, and continue to roll over the winnings to the next game.
GL
Generally, I agree. But having calculated the odds, I think this is a much better deal (at least for winning the NFC). Seattle is -500 against the Panthers. To win 500 I'd have to bet 2600. If they win and play Dallas at -250, I would then roll over 3100 to win 1240, for a total winnings of 1740. Meanwhile, if I bet them to win the NFC at -130 now, I bet 2600 to win 2000. Of course, the line might be lower against GB (say -200) but what if Rodgers is hurt, then it might be higher.
Quote Originally Posted by richig761:
Just a tip. Perhaps the huge ML difference with Carolina changes this.
But… if you want to bet on a team to win the super bowl. You should just bet the money lines for each playoff game, and continue to roll over the winnings to the next game.
GL
Generally, I agree. But having calculated the odds, I think this is a much better deal (at least for winning the NFC). Seattle is -500 against the Panthers. To win 500 I'd have to bet 2600. If they win and play Dallas at -250, I would then roll over 3100 to win 1240, for a total winnings of 1740. Meanwhile, if I bet them to win the NFC at -130 now, I bet 2600 to win 2000. Of course, the line might be lower against GB (say -200) but what if Rodgers is hurt, then it might be higher.
Halfway there, guys. I put another 700 on them at -138 (to win the NFC) when the Carolina ML shot up to -650. I think it was a bargain. All told, I have about 2K on Seattle to win the NFC and might add more depending on who they get. And if they win the NFC, I'll put all my winnings on them to win the SB (though I also have SB futures).
These guys are the real deal fellas and I can't understand how people don't see it. This is the most dominant team since the Niners and Cowboys of the 80's and 90's. Betting against them is simply foolish. They are playing on another level. NE/Baltimore looked like a JV game compared to how Seattle plays and hits people. The NFC West was the toughest division in all of football and these guys dominated at the end. Teams that won the AFC East and AFC West (or any other division) did not have to climb the mountain these guys did (beating the Niners(twice), Arizona(twice), and Rams(should have been twice).
Halfway there, guys. I put another 700 on them at -138 (to win the NFC) when the Carolina ML shot up to -650. I think it was a bargain. All told, I have about 2K on Seattle to win the NFC and might add more depending on who they get. And if they win the NFC, I'll put all my winnings on them to win the SB (though I also have SB futures).
These guys are the real deal fellas and I can't understand how people don't see it. This is the most dominant team since the Niners and Cowboys of the 80's and 90's. Betting against them is simply foolish. They are playing on another level. NE/Baltimore looked like a JV game compared to how Seattle plays and hits people. The NFC West was the toughest division in all of football and these guys dominated at the end. Teams that won the AFC East and AFC West (or any other division) did not have to climb the mountain these guys did (beating the Niners(twice), Arizona(twice), and Rams(should have been twice).
Terry Bradshaw, on Seattle: "Some teams all of a sudden you say to yourself, it's been what, 10 years since we had a repeat champion...they smell like being a part of history. This is not a team that's afraid of being good, and that's very important."
Bring on the Packers and the gimpy Rodgers, boys.
Terry Bradshaw, on Seattle: "Some teams all of a sudden you say to yourself, it's been what, 10 years since we had a repeat champion...they smell like being a part of history. This is not a team that's afraid of being good, and that's very important."
Not gonna start a new thread. Just gonna go with this one and give my reasons for each week's game.
The Packers had their Willis Reed moment, raised their level of play for their hall-of-fame QB to be, and got a miracle win to boot when Bryant's catch was ruled incomplete. They will have a hard time matching that intensity this week in Seattle. Dallas let GB off the hook and even Rodger's body language during and after the game should tell you that he is not exactly excited about the prospects of his team. Sure, he will give it the old college try (the guy is an unbelievable competitor) but his team will have to duplicate Sunday's effort and then some (and also get some luck to go their way) to have a chance in Seattle. In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good.
Seattle, meanwhile, is very excited to be here and to have a chance to repeat (or did you miss the game against Carolina?). These guys love the big stage. They just love it. While the Packers have 2 or 3 game changing stars, this team has 6 or 7. While the Packers are a so so road team, the Hawks are a great home team. While the Packers field 11 guys, the Hawks field 11 guys who play like 12 or 13 guys. Are they on PED's? Who knows but they play a vicious, punishing style of football. Remember what happened to my poor Niners there last year? Guys were being carted off in body bags.
Seattle is on the verge of history, and they know it. They have the chance to beat one recent SB winners (in GB) and one dynasty (in NE) and cement their place in NFL history. GB is on the verge of total collapse (with a blown calf muscle) and they know it. Russell Wilson will hear all the talk about Rodgers this week and will go out there with a chip on his shoulder. I love Wilson (this guy is my favorite QB since Joe Montana, yes, Joe Montana. Why? Because he is all about winning) and the fact that he can run will make it very tough for GB to contain him.
Finally, everyone is talking about the success Carolina had against Seattle and that Rodgers won't make the mistakes Cam made. But people forget that Cam's size and mobility is what gave Carolina a chance in that game. Rodgers is going to be a sitting duck. Also, recall what LC said in picking the Panthers. There was a lot of pressure on Seattle in that game (as heavy favorites), while Carolina was playing with house money. That won't be the case in this game. Seattle just saw Rodgers (the most dangerous QB in the league) beat the Cowboys on one leg, and they won't overlook a team with Super Bowl pedigree.
The Play: Seattle -7 for 5 units (only because I already have about 20 units on them to win the NFC)
Not gonna start a new thread. Just gonna go with this one and give my reasons for each week's game.
The Packers had their Willis Reed moment, raised their level of play for their hall-of-fame QB to be, and got a miracle win to boot when Bryant's catch was ruled incomplete. They will have a hard time matching that intensity this week in Seattle. Dallas let GB off the hook and even Rodger's body language during and after the game should tell you that he is not exactly excited about the prospects of his team. Sure, he will give it the old college try (the guy is an unbelievable competitor) but his team will have to duplicate Sunday's effort and then some (and also get some luck to go their way) to have a chance in Seattle. In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good.
Seattle, meanwhile, is very excited to be here and to have a chance to repeat (or did you miss the game against Carolina?). These guys love the big stage. They just love it. While the Packers have 2 or 3 game changing stars, this team has 6 or 7. While the Packers are a so so road team, the Hawks are a great home team. While the Packers field 11 guys, the Hawks field 11 guys who play like 12 or 13 guys. Are they on PED's? Who knows but they play a vicious, punishing style of football. Remember what happened to my poor Niners there last year? Guys were being carted off in body bags.
Seattle is on the verge of history, and they know it. They have the chance to beat one recent SB winners (in GB) and one dynasty (in NE) and cement their place in NFL history. GB is on the verge of total collapse (with a blown calf muscle) and they know it. Russell Wilson will hear all the talk about Rodgers this week and will go out there with a chip on his shoulder. I love Wilson (this guy is my favorite QB since Joe Montana, yes, Joe Montana. Why? Because he is all about winning) and the fact that he can run will make it very tough for GB to contain him.
Finally, everyone is talking about the success Carolina had against Seattle and that Rodgers won't make the mistakes Cam made. But people forget that Cam's size and mobility is what gave Carolina a chance in that game. Rodgers is going to be a sitting duck. Also, recall what LC said in picking the Panthers. There was a lot of pressure on Seattle in that game (as heavy favorites), while Carolina was playing with house money. That won't be the case in this game. Seattle just saw Rodgers (the most dangerous QB in the league) beat the Cowboys on one leg, and they won't overlook a team with Super Bowl pedigree.
The Play: Seattle -7 for 5 units (only because I already have about 20 units on them to win the NFC)
Not gonna start a new thread. Just gonna go with this one and give my reasons for each week's game.
The Packers had their Willis Reed moment, raised their level of play for their hall-of-fame QB to be, and got a miracle win to boot when Bryant's catch was ruled incomplete. They will have a hard time matching that intensity this week in Seattle. Dallas let GB off the hook and even Rodger's body language during and after the game should tell you that he is not exactly excited about the prospects of his team. Sure, he will give it the old college try (the guy is an unbelievable competitor) but his team will have to duplicate Sunday's effort and then some (and also get some luck to go their way) to have a chance in Seattle. In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good.
Seattle, meanwhile, is very excited to be here and to have a chance to repeat (or did you miss the game against Carolina?). These guys love the big stage. They just love it. While the Packers have 2 or 3 game changing stars, this team has 6 or 7. While the Packers are a so so road team, the Hawks are a great home team. While the Packers field 11 guys, the Hawks field 11 guys who play like 12 or 13 guys. Are they on PED's? Who knows but they play a vicious, punishing style of football. Remember what happened to my poor Niners there last year? Guys were being carted off in body bags.
Seattle is on the verge of history, and they know it. They have the chance to beat one recent SB winners (in GB) and one dynasty (in NE) and cement their place in NFL history. GB is on the verge of total collapse (with a blown calf muscle) and they know it. Russell Wilson will hear all the talk about Rodgers this week and will go out there with a chip on his shoulder. I love Wilson (this guy is my favorite QB since Joe Montana, yes, Joe Montana. Why? Because he is all about winning) and the fact that he can run will make it very tough for GB to contain him.
Finally, everyone is talking about the success Carolina had against Seattle and that Rodgers won't make the mistakes Cam made. But people forget that Cam's size and mobility is what gave Carolina a chance in that game. Rodgers is going to be a sitting duck. Also, recall what LC said in picking the Panthers. There was a lot of pressure on Seattle in that game (as heavy favorites), while Carolina was playing with house money. That won't be the case in this game. Seattle just saw Rodgers (the most dangerous QB in the league) beat the Cowboys on one leg, and they won't overlook a team with Super Bowl pedigree.
The Play: Seattle -7 for 5 units (only because I already have about 20 units on them to win the NFC)
People have to stop with this miracle Green bay crap. Lets just assume Dez caught that ball and Dallas took a 3 point lead (also assuming they made 2 point convert). With 4 minutes left, two timeouts, in lambeau and Aaron Rodgers leading, don't you think Packers would have at the very least kicked a FG to tie???? I'll take that bet every time, especially after watching Rodgers dismantle that Dallas D on one leg in the second half......Sure, Rodgers could have fumbled again, or he could have thrown his first pick in two years at home, but i'll take Rodgers in that situation all day and twice on sunday. Lets move on with this miracle crap.
your bet however looks good.
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Not gonna start a new thread. Just gonna go with this one and give my reasons for each week's game.
The Packers had their Willis Reed moment, raised their level of play for their hall-of-fame QB to be, and got a miracle win to boot when Bryant's catch was ruled incomplete. They will have a hard time matching that intensity this week in Seattle. Dallas let GB off the hook and even Rodger's body language during and after the game should tell you that he is not exactly excited about the prospects of his team. Sure, he will give it the old college try (the guy is an unbelievable competitor) but his team will have to duplicate Sunday's effort and then some (and also get some luck to go their way) to have a chance in Seattle. In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good.
Seattle, meanwhile, is very excited to be here and to have a chance to repeat (or did you miss the game against Carolina?). These guys love the big stage. They just love it. While the Packers have 2 or 3 game changing stars, this team has 6 or 7. While the Packers are a so so road team, the Hawks are a great home team. While the Packers field 11 guys, the Hawks field 11 guys who play like 12 or 13 guys. Are they on PED's? Who knows but they play a vicious, punishing style of football. Remember what happened to my poor Niners there last year? Guys were being carted off in body bags.
Seattle is on the verge of history, and they know it. They have the chance to beat one recent SB winners (in GB) and one dynasty (in NE) and cement their place in NFL history. GB is on the verge of total collapse (with a blown calf muscle) and they know it. Russell Wilson will hear all the talk about Rodgers this week and will go out there with a chip on his shoulder. I love Wilson (this guy is my favorite QB since Joe Montana, yes, Joe Montana. Why? Because he is all about winning) and the fact that he can run will make it very tough for GB to contain him.
Finally, everyone is talking about the success Carolina had against Seattle and that Rodgers won't make the mistakes Cam made. But people forget that Cam's size and mobility is what gave Carolina a chance in that game. Rodgers is going to be a sitting duck. Also, recall what LC said in picking the Panthers. There was a lot of pressure on Seattle in that game (as heavy favorites), while Carolina was playing with house money. That won't be the case in this game. Seattle just saw Rodgers (the most dangerous QB in the league) beat the Cowboys on one leg, and they won't overlook a team with Super Bowl pedigree.
The Play: Seattle -7 for 5 units (only because I already have about 20 units on them to win the NFC)
People have to stop with this miracle Green bay crap. Lets just assume Dez caught that ball and Dallas took a 3 point lead (also assuming they made 2 point convert). With 4 minutes left, two timeouts, in lambeau and Aaron Rodgers leading, don't you think Packers would have at the very least kicked a FG to tie???? I'll take that bet every time, especially after watching Rodgers dismantle that Dallas D on one leg in the second half......Sure, Rodgers could have fumbled again, or he could have thrown his first pick in two years at home, but i'll take Rodgers in that situation all day and twice on sunday. Lets move on with this miracle crap.
"In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down,
just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a
crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good."
Rodgers almost made no mistakes in that game, despite playing with a hammy. He threw two INT off good thrown passes. These were simply tipped into Saints hands after his receivers had the first touch. Saints scored 31 (!) points off three turnovers (2x INT, 1x 4th down) and two failed onside kicks (2x) from the Packers. They were in the 4th down situation because Davante Adams dropped a catchable pass. That game had nothing to do with the Saints defense or the Rodgers injury and it won't happen again in the next three years. Rodgers' stats in that game: 28/37; 418 yards; 10.7 YPPA.
Your statement is simply flawed.
Seahawks haven't faced a good passing team since week 10 when the Giants visited them. I hope scalabrine joins me on this statement as we both had the Giants in this game. Eli Manning - with a worse receiving corp than Rodgers has - was able to torch the Seahawks secondary and the score of 38-17 is still ridiculous. Eli Manning threw a perfect 42-yard bomb to OBJ who tipped the ball into the hands of Earl Thomas. Score would have been 24-17 Giants. When the score was 31-17 Seattle, Eli threw a pass to Randle who was obviously interfered but no flag. Giants had a shot to at least cover the spread late despite being a much worse team than the Packers on both sides of the ball.
What I want to say is, the Seahawks probably have the best defense right now, but they didn't face a passing offense ranked better than #12 since week 10 and that was Philly with Mark Sanchez coming off a huge rivalry win at Dallas. Now I should believe they are able to shut down Aaron Rodgers even if he is not at 100% ? They have played five top-10 passing offenses this season and just won two of them by more than 6 points. Both these opponents, GB then and Giants had no run game and the Giants game should have gone the other way. Eddie Lacy ran for 49.7 YPG and 3.94 YPC during the first 11 games, 99 YPG and 5.25 YPC since. Packers have adjusted run offense+defense.
To cut a long story short: I will pay to see if the Seahawks can beat the Packers by more than 7 points. I think there is a shot at a Brady/Rodgers Super Bowl to be honest.
"In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down,
just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a
crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good."
Rodgers almost made no mistakes in that game, despite playing with a hammy. He threw two INT off good thrown passes. These were simply tipped into Saints hands after his receivers had the first touch. Saints scored 31 (!) points off three turnovers (2x INT, 1x 4th down) and two failed onside kicks (2x) from the Packers. They were in the 4th down situation because Davante Adams dropped a catchable pass. That game had nothing to do with the Saints defense or the Rodgers injury and it won't happen again in the next three years. Rodgers' stats in that game: 28/37; 418 yards; 10.7 YPPA.
Your statement is simply flawed.
Seahawks haven't faced a good passing team since week 10 when the Giants visited them. I hope scalabrine joins me on this statement as we both had the Giants in this game. Eli Manning - with a worse receiving corp than Rodgers has - was able to torch the Seahawks secondary and the score of 38-17 is still ridiculous. Eli Manning threw a perfect 42-yard bomb to OBJ who tipped the ball into the hands of Earl Thomas. Score would have been 24-17 Giants. When the score was 31-17 Seattle, Eli threw a pass to Randle who was obviously interfered but no flag. Giants had a shot to at least cover the spread late despite being a much worse team than the Packers on both sides of the ball.
What I want to say is, the Seahawks probably have the best defense right now, but they didn't face a passing offense ranked better than #12 since week 10 and that was Philly with Mark Sanchez coming off a huge rivalry win at Dallas. Now I should believe they are able to shut down Aaron Rodgers even if he is not at 100% ? They have played five top-10 passing offenses this season and just won two of them by more than 6 points. Both these opponents, GB then and Giants had no run game and the Giants game should have gone the other way. Eddie Lacy ran for 49.7 YPG and 3.94 YPC during the first 11 games, 99 YPG and 5.25 YPC since. Packers have adjusted run offense+defense.
To cut a long story short: I will pay to see if the Seahawks can beat the Packers by more than 7 points. I think there is a shot at a Brady/Rodgers Super Bowl to be honest.
Suuma, as a holder of a few futures bet on the Seahawks, made earlier in the season.......I'm afraid of this game.....seeing the Panthers outgain the Hawks on Sunday.... I'm not seeing the "Legion of Boom" this year....Packers have a great chance to take this much less cover the huge spread.....though I'm rooting for the Hawks....will have to hedge this....BOL...
Suuma, as a holder of a few futures bet on the Seahawks, made earlier in the season.......I'm afraid of this game.....seeing the Panthers outgain the Hawks on Sunday.... I'm not seeing the "Legion of Boom" this year....Packers have a great chance to take this much less cover the huge spread.....though I'm rooting for the Hawks....will have to hedge this....BOL...
If you think about it, the main reason that DAL lost is because they did not take advantage of the gimpy leg of Rodgers (i.e. no pressure at all). I simply cannot see Rodgers being able to sit in the pocket in SEA like he did last week.
If Rodgers was healthy, this line would be about 4 to 5. I think 7 is about right in the circumstances.
Ultimately, my only debate is whether to take SEA -7 at -117 or to take the SEA and NE moneylines on a parlay at -125. Not sure which is better - especially since I have about 2500 on NE to make the SB
I like Seattle this Sunday.
If you think about it, the main reason that DAL lost is because they did not take advantage of the gimpy leg of Rodgers (i.e. no pressure at all). I simply cannot see Rodgers being able to sit in the pocket in SEA like he did last week.
If Rodgers was healthy, this line would be about 4 to 5. I think 7 is about right in the circumstances.
Ultimately, my only debate is whether to take SEA -7 at -117 or to take the SEA and NE moneylines on a parlay at -125. Not sure which is better - especially since I have about 2500 on NE to make the SB
Egreat counter writeup suuma. devil is in the details and youve provided great ones. i think your points are valid but those were all regular season games. seattle brings another level of play or intensity to the playoffs. this cant be accounted for by stats. secondly you have said nothing about the key matchup of the seattle offense vs the green bay deff.
Egreat counter writeup suuma. devil is in the details and youve provided great ones. i think your points are valid but those were all regular season games. seattle brings another level of play or intensity to the playoffs. this cant be accounted for by stats. secondly you have said nothing about the key matchup of the seattle offense vs the green bay deff.
finally this is a tough game to cap for gb backers cause of rodgers injury. if he has another slow start like he did at home that could be very costly. seattle wont let him off the hook for that the way dallas did.
finally this is a tough game to cap for gb backers cause of rodgers injury. if he has another slow start like he did at home that could be very costly. seattle wont let him off the hook for that the way dallas did.
I bet them at 10-1 when they went thru their mini slump. If rodgers was healthy i'd be sweating this game a bit, but since he's not i expect an epic beatdown on sunday. Im not sure he will even make it through this game to be honest, seattle can blitz in any predictable situation because their corners are good enough to not get picked apart. If dallas had any defensive playmakers at all they would have beaten rodgers handily last week as he was a shell of himself. that won't be the case sunday.
I bet them at 10-1 when they went thru their mini slump. If rodgers was healthy i'd be sweating this game a bit, but since he's not i expect an epic beatdown on sunday. Im not sure he will even make it through this game to be honest, seattle can blitz in any predictable situation because their corners are good enough to not get picked apart. If dallas had any defensive playmakers at all they would have beaten rodgers handily last week as he was a shell of himself. that won't be the case sunday.
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