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Going big on Seattle...

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im-a-unit

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Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 687

Posted: Jan. 14, 2015 - 3:43 PM ET #26

I would of give Dallas a better shot at beating Seattle more than Packers. Dallas could of matched Seattles physicality atleast on the offensive side of the ball with that good offensive line. Packers are more of a finesse team, and they wont commit to the run with Lacy. its just not in their nature. you could probably speak to this more than me. but seattles defense is good, but they just look good until chancellor knocks this sh1t out of somebody, and then they look GREAT. nobody wants to be the guy who gets that huge blow in front of 25 million people. but when it comes, seattle really gets fired up on defense. and it seems to really get in to the other teams head. which is probably why carrol plays him on the kickoff team. he blew up Tolbert in the second quarter last week. you didn't hear his name until that play, and then the defense took over. remember in last years superbowl when he blew up the Denver receiver on their second series? if he blows up Lacy or Nelson early, look out. gonna be a long day for packers.

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begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15078

Posted: Jan. 14, 2015 - 3:51 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by im-a-unit:

I would of give Dallas a better shot at beating Seattle more than Packers. Dallas could of matched Seattles physicality atleast on the offensive side of the ball with that good offensive line. Packers are more of a finesse team, and they wont commit to the run with Lacy. its just not in their nature. you could probably speak to this more than me. but seattles defense is good, but they just look good until chancellor knocks this sh1t out of somebody, and then they look GREAT. nobody wants to be the guy who gets that huge blow in front of 25 million people. but when it comes, seattle really gets fired up on defense. and it seems to really get in to the other teams head. which is probably why carrol plays him on the kickoff team. he blew up Tolbert in the second quarter last week. you didn't hear his name until that play, and then the defense took over. remember in last years superbowl when he blew up the Denver receiver on their second series? if he blows up Lacy or Nelson early, look out. gonna be a long day for packers.

This is another thing you can't cap with Seattle. The ferocity with which they play and the way they hit can demoralize a team. I saw them destroy my Niners (a much tougher team than GB, which is a finesse team) and take their will away (not to mention their bodies, as guys kept getting hurt/injured), game after game.

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RodWoman

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Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 1472

Posted: Jan. 14, 2015 - 6:41 PM ET #28

Love your ideas, but it just seems like it can't be that easy. Or maybe it can. Just heard Wilson is 9-0 against the HOF qb's in league.

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begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15078

Posted: Jan. 14, 2015 - 6:45 PM ET #29

Quote Originally Posted by RodWoman:

Love your ideas, but it just seems like it can't be that easy. Or maybe it can. Just heard Wilson is 9-0 against the HOF qb's in league.

Montana was my favorite player growing up. Love watching him. Always made the right play and threw balls guys could catch. It was as if the game was going in slow motion for him. Wilson is the only guy I've seen that reminds me of him. Google the two and you'll see others, including Montana, saying the same. Don't get me wrong, I love Rodgers too, but not this week.

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vywillreturn

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 302

Posted: Jan. 15, 2015 - 1:52 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

"In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good."

Rodgers almost made no mistakes in that game, despite playing with a hammy. He threw two INT off good thrown passes. These were simply tipped into Saints hands after his receivers had the first touch. Saints scored 31 (!) points off three turnovers (2x INT, 1x 4th down) and two failed onside kicks (2x) from the Packers. They were in the 4th down situation because Davante Adams dropped a catchable pass. That game had nothing to do with the Saints defense or the Rodgers injury and it won't happen again in the next three years. Rodgers' stats in that game: 28/37; 418 yards; 10.7 YPPA.

Your statement is simply flawed.

Seahawks haven't faced a good passing team since week 10 when the Giants visited them. I hope scalabrine joins me on this statement as we both had the Giants in this game. Eli Manning - with a worse receiving corp than Rodgers has - was able to torch the Seahawks secondary and the score of 38-17 is still ridiculous. Eli Manning threw a perfect 42-yard bomb to OBJ who tipped the ball into the hands of Earl Thomas. Score would have been 24-17 Giants. When the score was 31-17 Seattle, Eli threw a pass to Randle who was obviously interfered but no flag. Giants had a shot to at least cover the spread late despite being a much worse team than the Packers on both sides of the ball.

What I want to say is, the Seahawks probably have the best defense right now, but they didn't face a passing offense ranked better than #12 since week 10 and that was Philly with Mark Sanchez coming off a huge rivalry win at Dallas. Now I should believe they are able to shut down Aaron Rodgers even if he is not at 100% ? They have played five top-10 passing offenses this season and just won two of them by more than 6 points. Both these opponents, GB then and Giants had no run game and the Giants game should have gone the other way. Eddie Lacy ran for 49.7 YPG and 3.94 YPC during the first 11 games, 99 YPG and 5.25 YPC since. Packers have adjusted run offense+defense.

To cut a long story short: I will pay to see if the Seahawks can beat the Packers by more than 7 points. I think there is a shot at a Brady/Rodgers Super Bowl to be honest.

suuma youre a solid capper, no doubt. but you cant really compare this seattle defense right now to where they were when they played the Giants. bobby wagner is back and this entire unit is playing with way more confidence. i understand the strength of schedule argument, but you can only beat who you play. it seems smart to be skeptical, and maybe even question how they will play against AR, but to actually put your money against them (like you did last week and lost) is another thing. rodgers is great, but he did not look great last week, despite the stats and the W. he's also been very iffy on the road this season, as has their entire team. going into seattle right now looks like a very tough spot for them. but we will see what happens. last week everyone was saying carolina carolina carolina. now we see those people justifying the loss, saying it was close. seattle doesnt need to be up 20 late to cover. they can be up 3 and see lynch break a huge run. they do this time and again, keep games close and dominate the 4th quarter. back seattle, and be smart.

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Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

"In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good."

Rodgers almost made no mistakes in that game, despite playing with a hammy. He threw two INT off good thrown passes. These were simply tipped into Saints hands after his receivers had the first touch. Saints scored 31 (!) points off three turnovers (2x INT, 1x 4th down) and two failed onside kicks (2x) from the Packers. They were in the 4th down situation because Davante Adams dropped a catchable pass. That game had nothing to do with the Saints defense or the Rodgers injury and it won't happen again in the next three years. Rodgers' stats in that game: 28/37; 418 yards; 10.7 YPPA.

Your statement is simply flawed.

Seahawks haven't faced a good passing team since week 10 when the Giants visited them. I hope scalabrine joins me on this statement as we both had the Giants in this game. Eli Manning - with a worse receiving corp than Rodgers has - was able to torch the Seahawks secondary and the score of 38-17 is still ridiculous. Eli Manning threw a perfect 42-yard bomb to OBJ who tipped the ball into the hands of Earl Thomas. Score would have been 24-17 Giants. When the score was 31-17 Seattle, Eli threw a pass to Randle who was obviously interfered but no flag. Giants had a shot to at least cover the spread late despite being a much worse team than the Packers on both sides of the ball.

What I want to say is, the Seahawks probably have the best defense right now, but they didn't face a passing offense ranked better than #12 since week 10 and that was Philly with Mark Sanchez coming off a huge rivalry win at Dallas. Now I should believe they are able to shut down Aaron Rodgers even if he is not at 100% ? They have played five top-10 passing offenses this season and just won two of them by more than 6 points. Both these opponents, GB then and Giants had no run game and the Giants game should have gone the other way. Eddie Lacy ran for 49.7 YPG and 3.94 YPC during the first 11 games, 99 YPG and 5.25 YPC since. Packers have adjusted run offense+defense.

To cut a long story short: I will pay to see if the Seahawks can beat the Packers by more than 7 points. I think there is a shot at a Brady/Rodgers Super Bowl to be honest.

suuma youre a solid capper, no doubt. but you cant really compare this seattle defense right now to where they were when they played the Giants. bobby wagner is back and this entire unit is playing with way more confidence. i understand the strength of schedule argument, but you can only beat who you play. it seems smart to be skeptical, and maybe even question how they will play against AR, but to actually put your money against them (like you did last week and lost) is another thing. rodgers is great, but he did not look great last week, despite the stats and the W. he's also been very iffy on the road this season, as has their entire team. going into seattle right now looks like a very tough spot for them. but we will see what happens. last week everyone was saying carolina carolina carolina. now we see those people justifying the loss, saying it was close. seattle doesnt need to be up 20 late to cover. they can be up 3 and see lynch break a huge run. they do this time and again, keep games close and dominate the 4th quarter. back seattle, and be smart.

Vicente_

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 1227

Posted: Jan. 15, 2015 - 2:03 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

To win the NFC (-130) and the Super Bowl (+210). I also got Seattle at +275 and -120. Yeah, it's a bit risky (guys can get hurt, lame turnovers, etc) but I'm willing to do it and here is why. 1) Seattle is the only dominant team in the playoffs. They have a heady, agile QB (who is on record, from last year, that he wants to win multiple rings, like Montana), a dominant runing back, a great defense and a very good coach.2) They have experience and know what it takes to play at a championship level. More importantly, they look like a team that wants to repeat and win another Super Bowl.3) They have a great home field advantage and if they make it to the SB, they are familiar with the stadium in Phoenix (as it is in their division) and have had dominant performances there (None of the AFC teams left in the playoffs even played there this year). 4) Rodgers has a partial tear in his calf. Even if they beat Dallas, he ain't beating Seattle (in Seattle) on one leg. Dallas beat Seattle in Seattle already and I have difficult time believing they can do it again in the same year.5) Denver is fading (Payton is showing his age), the Pats don't have enough talent (or not as much as Seattle) and Indi or Baltimore would not stand a chance against the Hawks (or would provide great hedging opportunities, since they would be big underdogs).Basically, Seattle is one win away from making these futures bets that much more attractive (and expensive). So instead of trying to play Nostradamus for the next couple of weeks, I'm just gonna take the best team to win it all. Good luck.

Green Bay isn't going into Seattle and winning.

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calimike02

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2014

Posts: 406

Posted: Jan. 15, 2015 - 2:35 PM ET #32

Hopefully this turns out like your monster ARIZONA bet

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begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15078

Posted: Jan. 15, 2015 - 3:06 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by calimike02:

Hopefully this turns out like your monster ARIZONA bet

It was St Louis, and don't remind me. I was one week off on fading that team. The Rams laid a giant egg. Still can't believe how Fisher coached that game (as if his team was playing for a playoff spot). First drive of the game:

3rd and 1 at ARI 7 (7:40) B.Cunningham left tackle to ARZ 7 for no gain (C.Campbell).

4th and 1 at ARI 7 (7:01) G.Zuerlein 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.McQuaide, Holder-J.Hekker.

What a moron.

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 2:50 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by vywillreturn:

suuma youre a solid capper, no doubt. but you cant really compare this seattle defense right now to where they were when they played the Giants. bobby wagner is back and this entire unit is playing with way more confidence. i understand the strength of schedule argument, but you can only beat who you play. it seems smart to be skeptical, and maybe even question how they will play against AR, but to actually put your money against them (like you did last week and lost) is another thing. rodgers is great, but he did not look great last week, despite the stats and the W. he's also been very iffy on the road this season, as has their entire team. going into seattle right now looks like a very tough spot for them. but we will see what happens. last week everyone was saying carolina carolina carolina. now we see those people justifying the loss, saying it was close. seattle doesnt need to be up 20 late to cover. they can be up 3 and see lynch break a huge run. they do this time and again, keep games close and dominate the 4th quarter. back seattle, and be smart.

Thanks for your respond. You either got my intention wrong or I did not express myself correctly. I didn't want to compare the Seattle defense from week 10 with the Seattle defense from now. In another thread I wrote down how much they have adjusted from the Cowboys loss. I wanted to say that Seattle had problems with good passing teams till week 10, but didn't face any good one since then. Their defense is playing on a very high level, but they just haven't faced a good passing team since week 10, that's a fact. So my intention was: Despite their huge defensive performances, how much can we transfer to the game against GB ?

About the Panthers game: I think my pick wasn't the worst one, when the Panthers were able to outgain the Seahawks on the road.

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Lefty1981

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Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 2297

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 3:15 AM ET #35

Its true that SEA hasnt won against a good QB since what--week 3 against DEN? They lost to DAL. Its true that they do play down to the level of the competition at times. Almost like they feel like they can turn on the switch, which they tried to do against the Rams, but they just ran out of time. But is it their fault that they werent scheduled to face any good QBs this year? How many good QBs are there in the league anyways? That defense is a different animal and they're hungry. I feel like they're playing against history. They want to be historically great with Bennett already saying theyre the best defense in the history of the game. They probably truly believe that and they will have to go out there to prove it. Im not a Seahawks fan, and I like both teams. I'd love to make a case to see AR back in the SB because I love watching GB, but I just cant see GB winning with AR hopping around on 1 leg. I will be genuinely worried for his safety in this game. Think about it. GB is one devestating hit from Kam from having to watch Matt Flynn try to win the game for them.

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begginerboy

MVP

Joined: Jul, 2013

Posts: 15078

Posted: Jan. 16, 2015 - 11:38 PM ET #36

A nice writeup by Tony George on this game (for Hawks backers). I think he is dead on.

NFC Championship Las Vegas Line Play

Green Bay @ Seattle -7

By Tony George

Well the I hear and read a lot all over the internet and on TV and radio about Green Bay and their quest to beat up Seattle, and that the opening night of the NFL back in September means nothing when comparing these 2 teams here and now. IF Green Bay can do this, IF Green Bay can do that, IF Rodgers heals up with little or no practice time, IF Lacey’s knee soreness goes away, IF Green Bay can tackle, IF Rodgers can squeeze it in to Jordy Nelson in tight coverage against Sherman. Too many “If’s” involved there against Seattle folks. I wrote an article earlier this week on why Dallas lost to Green Bay and why Seattle will beat them. I did not bring the spread into play much in that article but I have not changed my mind one bit.

You have 2 of the 4 stars on offense for Green Bay banged up. You have Aaron Rodgers hopping on one leg, and RB Lacey nursing a sore knee and he did not practice at all Thursday. Has anyone seen the Seattle defense lately? Oh wait, they haven’t played anyone the past 6 weeks worth a crap and all this defensive domination is just smoke and mirrors, and Seattle has no explosive offense and are one dimensional with RB Lynch or QB Wilson running it out of the read option. OK you guys stay with that narrative, I am going a different direction.

The home field here is worth 4 points alone in this game, and Seattle is at least a TD Better on top of that. QB Rodgers against this pass rush is a debacle in the making, and a defense headed up by DC Dan Quinn who will be Atlanta’s head coach after this season, will get after Rodgers big time, something Dallas refused to do. Either WR Nelson or WR Cobb will be taken away in man coverage against Richard Sherman, and Rodgers is immobile and will not able to buy time against a defense ranked 3rds against the run, 1st in yards allow and points allowed, and oh yeah, number 1 against the pass. Does anyone really think the Green Bay defense is equipped at stopping this rushing attack, as they are ranked 19th against the run in the NFL? They allowed Tony Romo in their own house only 4 incompletions last week and Murray had 125 rushing, and Dallas doubled their return yardage and still lost! Another well-known fact is that Green Bay is a different animal on the road, they already got blown out here this season and manage just 21 points a game on the road. Yes Green Bay has evolved since that first game, but so has Seattle.

You cannot come limping in here and get a win, it is that simple, and yes 7 points is a ton of points anytime in the NFL, especially in the post season, but I simply do not see Green Bay within 10 points of Seattle at games end and for a free opinion on this game I will lay the 7, which in my 22 years as a pro handicapper I rarely do in a championship game, and that statement from a capper who took 6 points in the national title game with the underdog Ohio State. I just do not see a Packers team with the best QB in the NFL at 60% at best, against the best defense in the NFL coming into Seattle and pulling a shocker.

Free Play on Seattle -7

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A nice writeup by Tony George on this game (for Hawks backers). I think he is dead on.

NFC Championship Las Vegas Line Play

Green Bay @ Seattle -7

By Tony George

Well the I hear and read a lot all over the internet and on TV and radio about Green Bay and their quest to beat up Seattle, and that the opening night of the NFL back in September means nothing when comparing these 2 teams here and now. IF Green Bay can do this, IF Green Bay can do that, IF Rodgers heals up with little or no practice time, IF Lacey’s knee soreness goes away, IF Green Bay can tackle, IF Rodgers can squeeze it in to Jordy Nelson in tight coverage against Sherman. Too many “If’s” involved there against Seattle folks. I wrote an article earlier this week on why Dallas lost to Green Bay and why Seattle will beat them. I did not bring the spread into play much in that article but I have not changed my mind one bit.

You have 2 of the 4 stars on offense for Green Bay banged up. You have Aaron Rodgers hopping on one leg, and RB Lacey nursing a sore knee and he did not practice at all Thursday. Has anyone seen the Seattle defense lately? Oh wait, they haven’t played anyone the past 6 weeks worth a crap and all this defensive domination is just smoke and mirrors, and Seattle has no explosive offense and are one dimensional with RB Lynch or QB Wilson running it out of the read option. OK you guys stay with that narrative, I am going a different direction.

The home field here is worth 4 points alone in this game, and Seattle is at least a TD Better on top of that. QB Rodgers against this pass rush is a debacle in the making, and a defense headed up by DC Dan Quinn who will be Atlanta’s head coach after this season, will get after Rodgers big time, something Dallas refused to do. Either WR Nelson or WR Cobb will be taken away in man coverage against Richard Sherman, and Rodgers is immobile and will not able to buy time against a defense ranked 3rds against the run, 1st in yards allow and points allowed, and oh yeah, number 1 against the pass. Does anyone really think the Green Bay defense is equipped at stopping this rushing attack, as they are ranked 19th against the run in the NFL? They allowed Tony Romo in their own house only 4 incompletions last week and Murray had 125 rushing, and Dallas doubled their return yardage and still lost! Another well-known fact is that Green Bay is a different animal on the road, they already got blown out here this season and manage just 21 points a game on the road. Yes Green Bay has evolved since that first game, but so has Seattle.

You cannot come limping in here and get a win, it is that simple, and yes 7 points is a ton of points anytime in the NFL, especially in the post season, but I simply do not see Green Bay within 10 points of Seattle at games end and for a free opinion on this game I will lay the 7, which in my 22 years as a pro handicapper I rarely do in a championship game, and that statement from a capper who took 6 points in the national title game with the underdog Ohio State. I just do not see a Packers team with the best QB in the NFL at 60% at best, against the best defense in the NFL coming into Seattle and pulling a shocker.

Free Play on Seattle -7

TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 54674

Posted: Jan. 17, 2015 - 12:08 AM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Not gonna start a new thread. Just gonna go with this one and give my reasons for each week's game.

The Packers had their Willis Reed moment, raised their level of play for their hall-of-fame QB to be, and got a miracle win to boot when Bryant's catch was ruled incomplete. They will have a hard time matching that intensity this week in Seattle. Dallas let GB off the hook and even Rodger's body language during and after the game should tell you that he is not exactly excited about the prospects of his team. Sure, he will give it the old college try (the guy is an unbelievable competitor) but his team will have to duplicate Sunday's effort and then some (and also get some luck to go their way) to have a chance in Seattle. In fact, if you want to get an idea of how this game might go down, just recall what happened to Rodgers and the Pack in NO (against a crappy defense) when Rodgers pulled a hammy in that game. Not good.

Seattle, meanwhile, is very excited to be here and to have a chance to repeat (or did you miss the game against Carolina?). These guys love the big stage. They just love it. While the Packers have 2 or 3 game changing stars, this team has 6 or 7. While the Packers are a so so road team, the Hawks are a great home team. While the Packers field 11 guys, the Hawks field 11 guys who play like 12 or 13 guys. Are they on PED's? Who knows but they play a vicious, punishing style of football. Remember what happened to my poor Niners there last year? Guys were being carted off in body bags.

Seattle is on the verge of history, and they know it. They have the chance to beat one recent SB winners (in GB) and one dynasty (in NE) and cement their place in NFL history. GB is on the verge of total collapse (with a blown calf muscle) and they know it. Russell Wilson will hear all the talk about Rodgers this week and will go out there with a chip on his shoulder. I love Wilson (this guy is my favorite QB since Joe Montana, yes, Joe Montana. Why? Because he is all about winning) and the fact that he can run will make it very tough for GB to contain him.

Finally, everyone is talking about the success Carolina had against Seattle and that Rodgers won't make the mistakes Cam made. But people forget that Cam's size and mobility is what gave Carolina a chance in that game. Rodgers is going to be a sitting duck. Also, recall what LC said in picking the Panthers. There was a lot of pressure on Seattle in that game (as heavy favorites), while Carolina was playing with house money. That won't be the case in this game. Seattle just saw Rodgers (the most dangerous QB in the league) beat the Cowboys on one leg, and they won't overlook a team with Super Bowl pedigree.

The Play: Seattle -7 for 5 units (only because I already have about 20 units on them to win the NFC)

Who are the 6 or 7 game changers you are referring to? Lynch, wilson and sherman and ?????

Also, if you have that much basically riding on the seattle ml (winning nfc), then you should be looking to go for a middle and taking GB at anything over +7......not adding more at much worse odds (-7 @ -110 vs them to win nfc which is now the Sea ML)

Just what i would do. Bol