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Help to determine who the public is betting on

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Hey guys, I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help me figure out about public betting. I recently found a site that breaks down pretty thoroughly who the public is betting on and it refreshed frequently.  I am not sure of the forum rules here so I will not post the site.  But it has a pie graph and a line graph that shows what percentage of the public is for or against the spread.  Here are my questions.

#1. If the graph shows that 84% of the public is betting on the Colts -3 and 16% is on the Bengals +3, does that mean if I bet against the public and took the Bengals +3, would I technically be betting "with" Vegas?

#2.  If the line came out at -3 and has gone up to -5, does that mean that the favorite has been bet a lot and caused the line to go up?  If that is the case then would betting on the underdog +5 at that point be betting "with" Vegas since the public is obviously on the Favorite?

I may be way off in this thinking but I have NEVER paid attention to who the majority of the public is on or line movement for that matter.  I never really understood how to factor those two things into my analysis when trying to pick my games.  How much weight should those things have when trying to come up with my own lines and such?  I use power ratings for a base, then look at injuries and pretty much go from there.  I would love to understand how to use the public betting information and line moves to my advantage.  Thanks in advance if you are able to give me some insight and how to use this information!

-Chris
 
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Posted: #2
Look at it this way.... 90% of the public was on 9ers -3 yesterday and they ended up winning by 14 points. Don't waste your time looking where the public money is.. Cap the GAME not the line.
 
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Posted: #3
Quote Originally Posted by repthe305:

 I have NEVER paid attention to who the majority of the public is on or line movement for that matter.

You're already doing it right. Stick to using your power rankings and research to determine who you think will win, and then see if the market is offering you a good opportunity to bet them.

That's all it is, a market. Line movement means nothing more than the books are trying to balance their action.

Don't fall into the 'trap' of studying where Vegas and the public are. That's all crap that people who CAN'T come up with their own ratings and predictions use in attempts to find a secret, easy shortcut to find out where the 'people who know' are betting.

Sites like The Spread (which is the one you're talking about, I'm pretty sure) don't even accurately reflect 'public' or 'consensus' bets. They derive their information from the select books who allow them to monitor them. These sites can't give you a full, complete picture of what the majority are betting.. and the truth is, it doesn't matter one bit. It's a market, that's all.

There's plenty of clowns on here who will jump in at some point and tell you they're sharps cos they fade the public, the know the  'Vegas' play because they read the reasons for a line move in tea leaves, and spend all their time trying to be one of the cool 'sharps'. These people are clueless. There's no legitimate edge to be gained by exploring the world of that nonsense.

Stick to what you're doing 

 
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Posted: #4
^^^^^Well said.I've always thought being concerned about what the public thinks is a lazy way of capping.Line movement is always a concern to me.I play about 10% of my plays when the line posts.Vegas is known for not moving a line at times in fear people will unload on that side.RG3 s last game vs Washington is a good example..
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56:

^^^^^Well said.I've always thought being concerned about what the public thinks is a lazy way of capping.Line movement is always a concern to me.I play about 10% of my plays when the line posts.Vegas is known for not moving a line at times in fear people will unload on that side.RG3 s last game vs Washington is a good example..

Yep 

 And when those shifts occur you can almost see and obvious reason why -- significant lineup change, late-breaking news, etc. The line is moving because stock's value has changed, and the money is responding. Or, because as you pointed out, they know how a certain side (stock) is going to sell on the market. 

There's no bait or switch, they're simply working toward an efficient market.


 
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Posted: #6
The real money split, or money volume at a bookmaker is the best kept secret in the business. These consensus numbers mean just nothing. Consensus numbers from public sites are based on picks in open contests from people who don't bet real money on it. You could find a consensus number of 85% on one team, but the bookie could have a 50/50 money split and win his normal margin on the juice - we will never know.

My advice: Break down the games and make a decision based on what you capped, not on what any consensus numbers or line moves probably tell you.

 


 
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Posted: #7
Well thanks for all the responses guys.  Guess I was actually doing something right by not focusing a lot of my time on the public.  I appreciate the input and advice. Good Luck to you guys this week!
 
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Posted: #8
Example: On Sunday, the consensus numbers were between 70 and 80 percent on the Packers, but yet the line moved from -3 to almost a pickem. I would guess that some big money came in on the Packers and oddsmakers moved the line to keep their 50/50 split and collect the juice. Service picks from touts have been 29-4 in favor of Miami when I checked before gametime. When so many guys release the same side, their customers can move a line.
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

The real money split, or money volume at a bookmaker is the best kept secret in the business. These consensus numbers mean just nothing. Consensus numbers from public sites are based on picks in open contests from people who don't bet real money on it. You could find a consensus number of 85% on one team, but the bookie could have a 50/50 money split and win his normal margin on the juice - we will never know.

Explained that part much better than I did 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by repthe305:

Well thanks for all the responses guys.  Guess I was actually doing something right by not focusing a lot of my time on the public.  I appreciate the input and advice. Good Luck to you guys this week!

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Johnny-Utah:


You're already doing it right. Stick to using your power rankings and research to determine who you think will win, and then see if the market is offering you a good opportunity to bet them.

That's all it is, a market. Line movement means nothing more than the books are trying to balance their action.

Don't fall into the 'trap' of studying where Vegas and the public are. That's all crap that people who CAN'T come up with their own ratings and predictions use in attempts to find a secret, easy shortcut to find out where the 'people who know' are betting.

Sites like The Spread (which is the one you're talking about, I'm pretty sure) don't even accurately reflect 'public' or 'consensus' bets. They derive their information from the select books who allow them to monitor them. These sites can't give you a full, complete picture of what the majority are betting.. and the truth is, it doesn't matter one bit. It's a market, that's all.

There's plenty of clowns on here who will jump in at some point and tell you they're sharps cos they fade the public, the know the  'Vegas' play because they read the reasons for a line move in tea leaves, and spend all their time trying to be one of the cool 'sharps'. These people are clueless. There's no legitimate edge to be gained by exploring the world of that nonsense.

Stick to what you're doing 


ALL you guy's are spot on and well said !
Just add my 2 cents, with the I pick all the dog bets for the spreads
because I"m a sharp..lol Some posters with millions of posts think they are experts but once they type it's a dead giveaway they don't really know. Everyone has their own system of picking winners, so my advice like everything else in life is moderation. 

 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Johnny-Utah:




There's plenty of clowns on here who will jump in at some point and tell you they're sharps cos they fade the public, the know the  'Vegas' play because they read the reasons for a line move in tea leaves, and spend all their time trying to be one of the cool 'sharps'. These people are clueless. There's no legitimate edge to be gained by exploring the world of that nonsense.



Very well said
 
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Posted: #13
Look at it, consider it but never blindly bet against the public.  

Last night is a decent example, with 80% on San Fran and they covered.  Last season the 49ers were a public favorite in pretty much games and covered most of the time.  

What you want to look for is to buy low and sell high.   If 80% of the public is on a road favorite but not a top 5 team then start looking at the home dog.  

The lines are made to get even action and if a mediocre team has won and covered two weeks in a row that line is going to favor them more in the next game because they know the public will bet that team, and Vegas is not going to give you any value ever.  

Taking the Rams over San Fran because the public is on San Fran is just stupid.  

Taking Jacksonville against Cleveland this week would be smarter.  I'm not saying the Jags are a play, just an example.   The Browns have been playing well, but good enough to be giving up 6 points on the road?

Cleveland on a high with a big win on Sunday and a big boost of confidence.  

Jacksonville on a low with an 0-6 record desperate for a win, knowing they have nothing else to lose.  

The numbers say Cleveland, hell my number is Cleveland in a blowout.   But I know they won't play the Jags like they played Pittsburgh.  
 
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Posted: #14
Screw the public or the house. Go with your guts is what I say. Covers forum is usually split evenly and there are a lot of people with good logic behind their bets. IE: Rams should have covered last night due to being at home, divisional game, strong defense vs the run game, an unknown variable in the QB. vs 49ers who are the superior team on all aspects but is in inconsistent to some level and plays down/up to their opponent.

 Sounds legit right?? Many people would like the superior team despite that inconsistency.
 
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Posted: #15
Its VERY easy to find who the public is. If you work, go around work asking who they thing will win the game. Thats the public. Ppl who look at the game without knowing anything about it other than the team name.
 
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Posted: #16
Wow.  Every response was a good one.  (I'm actually surprised.)

This thread should be required reading here on Covers, before you are allowed to sign up for a new account.

I will add one thing.

Teams like the Patriots or the Packers, for many years the Cowboys, the Steelers, etc, are often called "public" teams.  They are popular teams.  By that I mean your average Joe likes to bet on them, and give the points.  (These teams are favored more often than they are underdogs.)

Teams like the Jags or the Panthers or the Texans or the Lions are not bet on nearly as much.  For that reason, you can often get a little bit more "value" than you otherwise could by betting on these teams. 

The bookmakers really do want an equal amount of action on both sides.  (Yes, they do.)  That's how they earn their money.  They don't earn money on your losing bets!  They earn their money off of the vig.  If you lose a bet someone else, probably that same week, won the exact same amount from them.  They earn their money on the vig.

And knowing ahead of time that your average Joe will be betting on these popular teams, they inflate the line... just a tad.  They do this because they are trying to draw an equal amount of action on the non popular team.

The line is not nor has it ever been a game prediction.  It is a number hoping to generate equal action on both sides.  This is why if you can handicap a game properly, you can find games where the line is "off" (maybe the better team isn't even favored) and bet accordingly.

 
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Posted: #17
You can't be on the same side as "Vegas" since some people are 84%, others are 16% and Vegas is the other 10% that you can't be on.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:

Wow.  Every response was a good one.  (I'm actually surprised.)


So was I. I replied to get in before all the nonsense turned up.. but it never came 

And I'll second the rest of your post. Teams like the Yankees, for instance, quite often aren't getting a fair price because of their popularity.. and quite often there's value to be found on their opponents.. and, even better, they're quite often faves when they really shouldn't be at all. 
 
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Posted: #19
Regarding Vegas wanting even action.  This is probably the most mis-understood factor.  Yes, the best situation would be 50/50 on bets and a guaranteed no risk 10% profit but it never works out that way.  

The bottom line is Vegas wants to win just like us.  Most of the time they end up pulling for shitty teams.  When those teams cover it doesn't mean they trapped everyone.

Pretty basic stuff, but complicated, public loves favorites so Vegas usually needs the dogs.  The biggest public favorites are sometimes inflated a bit, but not too much because they want dog money to lower their risk.   Sometimes they cover and sometimes they don't.

The 50/50 goal is more about decreasing their risk on these teams. The lines they set are always based on 3 and 7 so they can have room to move, so 5.5 could mean they are willing to move it to 4 or it could mean they are willing to move it to 7.  As much as everyone wants to think they're sharp and they know, we really never know until it moves, and even then we don't know for sure.

If the line moved from -5.5 to -7 and the team wins by 6 then they were able to reduce the risk.  That's really how they get the edge, for the linesmakers is not about Vegas vs the gambler, it's about reducing their risk and making money on all the games added up.

Last nights game Vegas was not worried about San Fran winning they were worried about the game landing on 3, because they'd have to refund all the Frisco bets at 3 and pay out all the Rams bets at 3.5 to 4 for a loss.    

It's deep deep s-h-i-t man  
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Example: On Sunday, the consensus numbers were between 70 and 80 percent on the Packers, but yet the line moved from -3 to almost a pickem. I would guess that some big money came in on the Packers and oddsmakers moved the line to keep their 50/50 split and collect the juice. Service picks from touts have been 29-4 in favor of Miami when I checked before gametime. When so many guys release the same side, their customers can move a line.

Little confused,

Did you mean big money came in on the Dolphins, Ultimately pushing the line to pick so people would play the packs, getting it back to even? 

or can you explain to me that a little more.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Stacks:


Little confused,

Did you mean big money came in on the Dolphins, Ultimately pushing the line to pick so people would play the packs, getting it back to even? 

or can you explain to me that a little more.

Yes, sorry. I meant to say money came in on the Dolphins, probably due to many touts releasing a play on Miami. Therefore oddsmakers drove the line down to get more action on the Packers to get back to a balanced split. Sorry for the confusing.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Stacks:

Did you mean big money came in on the Dolphins, Ultimately pushing the line to pick so people would play the packs, getting it back to even?

Yes, I'm sure that is exactly what he means.

That's exactly what is happening.  When a particular book moves its lines, it's because it is getting too much action on one side. The book now wants to make it a little bit more attractive to bet on the other side, thereby balancing its books just a little bit more.  If the line was -3 and then eventually became a pick'em, that's exactly what was happening.... They wanted to now make the game more attractive to bet on Green Bay and help balance their books.

A good book does NOT want to gamble.  They won't stay in business very long if they did.  They want to earn their money with the juice, and thus attempt to get equal action on both sides.  (Which isn't of course always possible).  So yes, they often DO root for one side.  Of course, often they have enough action to show a profit either way, it's just that their profit will be much more if a certain team wins, hence they find themselves rooting for that team.
 
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Posted: #23

Sharkysden is correct.  Few NFL games end up with even action and the casinos don't even try to get it 50/50 anymore. 

Since about 1995, the vig business model was thrown out at one sportsbook after another and now Vegas hopes to be on the right side of all those unevenly bet games. 

For local ma-and-pa illegal bookies, they are still closer to the even action vig business model.

 
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Posted: #24
Last week, week7 it's seem a lot public go with the Defending Supebowl Champs. But I end up with Boys+8.5 and I'd took the winless Jags+6 from othe Vegas books. Because I saw that there's 76% of those public goes with the Titanz with Charlie Whitehurst. That were my brain pop up that's I should take dog road and home dog. Because I think that a lot of points and it's a fishing hook for public to bet on the team have more public consesus
 
 
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Posted: #25
Do your own home work and play smart on your chart. Instead listen to the Vegas and public. Trust yourself do not concentrate on public hearing.
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