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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    Help to determine who the public is betting on

    «First Previous 12
    phixer
    highstakesfix
    HoldingXYZ
    suuma
    NEPatriots122
    ...
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    Search
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    phixer
    phixer
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    Posted: Oct. 14, 2014 - 11:23 PM ET #26

    this is a flow chart of the events from the time the games are scheduled until you hit the bet button.

    1. las vegas sports consultants  - otherwise known as lvsc -(Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. provides odds and pointspreads to sports books. The company, through its Sports Screen automated gaming information delivery technology, offers clients with current odds information on various U.S. and assorted international sporting events, including football, baseball, golf, boxing, soccer, basketball, hockey, tennis, and auto racing. It also provides consultation services on house rules, future odds, and parlay cards; and up to the minute information on key injuries, time changes, weather conditions, and final scores. In addition, Las Vegas Sports Consultants establishes betting lines for games to be played worldwide. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. As of November 6, 2008, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Cantor Gaming Ltd) is the place where the  line for the game originates.
    2. the lines are delievered to the books and now it is the turn of the book oddsmakers to doctor the line according to their interests while the big books like to get it as close to the predicted outcome on most games and get a special doctoring for the single event games (snf, mnf, tnf etc).
    3. the lines are released to the public. the first ones to hit it are the experts who know precisely when the lines are released and they operate in two basic ways: "sharps" are "identifying weak lines and pound the value while organized triads mostly coming from asia are pushing the line to favorable direction only to bet the opposite before the game starts and at the risk of the juice attempt to meddle it. those are so called wise guys but not the wise guys as we are accustomed to (kinda sopranos of the sort).
    4.the lines dont just move. the money moves the lines. when the line moves opposite to what it should according to public support is called rlm or reverse line movement and there are two kinds of rlm: rlm by the books when they purposely move the line against the money to make the side they want you to bet more attractive - that is caused by unbalanced bets on both sides and the books try to even it out, or is caused by big money from little number of the bettors that are betting on the outcome opposite to public betting trend. you gotta remember that the money moves the line and not the number of the people who bet on a certain side. if 100 people bet on side a total of 1 million dollars and 900 people bet on side b total of 500,000 dollars - you will get that 90% of the public supports side a while the line will move drastically in opposite direction favoring side a.
    5. there are variations on what i have wriitten here on each and every bettable single component of the game and all is affected by money and not the amount of the bettors. when the books seem helpless to balance their bets - the real wise guys step in making sure the books do not go bankrupt.

    now, if you think that you already understand everything - you are wrong. in order to start winning on sports betting - you will need to lose for few years before understanding the tandem fully. don't hurry up.

    the bottom line is that the money in sports betting is not made by only picking the right side for at least 53% of the time. no. the money can only be made thru a sound money management  strategy. figure that out for yourself as you know how much money you have and if you are able to double ur bankroll periodically.

    i will have a thread soon enough explaining how thru a right money management one can turn 1k into 257k and those of you who know me - know that i am not kidding.

    how many are really succeeding to do that easy mathematical operation that i will explain on my thread? i dont know of such cases as those that do do not advertise it - but if you know someone is constantly making money betting on sports - you can be most assured that the right money management is the reason
    Reply
    this is a flow chart of the events from the time the games are scheduled until you hit the bet button.

    1. las vegas sports consultants  - otherwise known as lvsc -(Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. provides odds and pointspreads to sports books. The company, through its Sports Screen automated gaming information delivery technology, offers clients with current odds information on various U.S. and assorted international sporting events, including football, baseball, golf, boxing, soccer, basketball, hockey, tennis, and auto racing. It also provides consultation services on house rules, future odds, and parlay cards; and up to the minute information on key injuries, time changes, weather conditions, and final scores. In addition, Las Vegas Sports Consultants establishes betting lines for games to be played worldwide. The company was founded in 1982 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada. As of November 6, 2008, Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Cantor Gaming Ltd) is the place where the  line for the game originates.
    2. the lines are delievered to the books and now it is the turn of the book oddsmakers to doctor the line according to their interests while the big books like to get it as close to the predicted outcome on most games and get a special doctoring for the single event games (snf, mnf, tnf etc).
    3. the lines are released to the public. the first ones to hit it are the experts who know precisely when the lines are released and they operate in two basic ways: "sharps" are "identifying weak lines and pound the value while organized triads mostly coming from asia are pushing the line to favorable direction only to bet the opposite before the game starts and at the risk of the juice attempt to meddle it. those are so called wise guys but not the wise guys as we are accustomed to (kinda sopranos of the sort).
    4.the lines dont just move. the money moves the lines. when the line moves opposite to what it should according to public support is called rlm or reverse line movement and there are two kinds of rlm: rlm by the books when they purposely move the line against the money to make the side they want you to bet more attractive - that is caused by unbalanced bets on both sides and the books try to even it out, or is caused by big money from little number of the bettors that are betting on the outcome opposite to public betting trend. you gotta remember that the money moves the line and not the number of the people who bet on a certain side. if 100 people bet on side a total of 1 million dollars and 900 people bet on side b total of 500,000 dollars - you will get that 90% of the public supports side a while the line will move drastically in opposite direction favoring side a.
    5. there are variations on what i have wriitten here on each and every bettable single component of the game and all is affected by money and not the amount of the bettors. when the books seem helpless to balance their bets - the real wise guys step in making sure the books do not go bankrupt.

    now, if you think that you already understand everything - you are wrong. in order to start winning on sports betting - you will need to lose for few years before understanding the tandem fully. don't hurry up.

    the bottom line is that the money in sports betting is not made by only picking the right side for at least 53% of the time. no. the money can only be made thru a sound money management  strategy. figure that out for yourself as you know how much money you have and if you are able to double ur bankroll periodically.

    i will have a thread soon enough explaining how thru a right money management one can turn 1k into 257k and those of you who know me - know that i am not kidding.

    how many are really succeeding to do that easy mathematical operation that i will explain on my thread? i dont know of such cases as those that do do not advertise it - but if you know someone is constantly making money betting on sports - you can be most assured that the right money management is the reason
     
    highstakesfix
    highstakesfix
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    Joined: Oct, 2014
    Posts: 3
    Posted: Oct. 14, 2014 - 11:40 PM ET #27

    FIXED MATCHES (SOCCER AND BASKETBALL)

    CONTACT EMAIL : highstakesfix@gmail.com
    Reply
    FIXED MATCHES (SOCCER AND BASKETBALL)

    CONTACT EMAIL : highstakesfix@gmail.com
     
    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posts: 6667
    Posted: Oct. 15, 2014 - 12:18 AM ET #28

    Rule number 1... Never follow betting percentages of any site... This has more to do with total amount of money on one side,,, and heres the tricky part,,, 1 major book could be heavy on team A while another book could be heavy on team B.... While each book might have different information "wiseguys" or "consultants",, late or early information,,, this creates the arbitrage between books that want to gamble and books that do not gamble that is if they even have a choice,,, books that have a layoff system are the most sound so they do not have to take risk or rather taking 50/50 propositions is like free money... Books that do not have a layoff system usually have other propositions on either table games poker ect ect to spread risk ,, just think like an underwriter for an insurance company as an example,, the chances of an earthquake and a major comet the size of a continent hitting the earth is unlikely,, and even in this event they are covered...Think of it as a market... Every grocery store prices their goods differently... Its all built into the line,, Whether it be the vig or those point movements.... Meanwhile with the technology we have today,, books do not even open a line until they see another major book open a line so that they can peg their line with a line that is known to be profitable over time... This is what they call "Moving on Air" 
    Wise guys are a series within a system,, they are able to feed a system to shape a line into a profitable one...

    To be ahead of a crowd,, it takes experience and alot of time,,,, alot of data mining,, and analysis,, and other pshychological factors,, after all it is the public that pays for most things and its a huge crowd,, certainly more then wise guys,,, And you are here to exploit that difference....

    Once you have that experience,, you should be able to guess the direction of a line when it opens with strong accuracy,, thats where you gain value,, nowadays you will be paying -120 instead of -110 on half point movements atleast,, Which is why most books charge more to hedge against the loss they will take long term against your sharper players,, which is only a fractional cost they will incur considering the general public is no where near being sophisticated ,, which ultimately pays for the sharps winning and pocketing everything else after cost... 

    Yes there are public teams,,, if you data mined,, and studied each team,, you will find alot of value,, Like the Patriots as mentioned,, they will be a favorite most of the time,, even without players like welker , moss, A good back,, a banged up o line... So on one end you need to have your own data,, your own number,,, and when you see the line you need to compare your number with the number they set,, chances are there's a difference,, this will tell you alot about what the books want and what that number represents,,, if you do this over and over enough times,, you will become more wise,, and you can take a glance at a line sheet and be able to comprehend how to read a line... Dont go into this thinking it will be easy... Im a consistant winner myself,, and i cannot tell you in any way shape or form its easy.... Even if you are the god of sports,,, you still need to feed the system with new information each week... No matter what.... 






    Reply
    Rule number 1... Never follow betting percentages of any site... This has more to do with total amount of money on one side,,, and heres the tricky part,,, 1 major book could be heavy on team A while another book could be heavy on team B.... While each book might have different information "wiseguys" or "consultants",, late or early information,,, this creates the arbitrage between books that want to gamble and books that do not gamble that is if they even have a choice,,, books that have a layoff system are the most sound so they do not have to take risk or rather taking 50/50 propositions is like free money... Books that do not have a layoff system usually have other propositions on either table games poker ect ect to spread risk ,, just think like an underwriter for an insurance company as an example,, the chances of an earthquake and a major comet the size of a continent hitting the earth is unlikely,, and even in this event they are covered...Think of it as a market... Every grocery store prices their goods differently... Its all built into the line,, Whether it be the vig or those point movements.... Meanwhile with the technology we have today,, books do not even open a line until they see another major book open a line so that they can peg their line with a line that is known to be profitable over time... This is what they call "Moving on Air" 
    Wise guys are a series within a system,, they are able to feed a system to shape a line into a profitable one...

    To be ahead of a crowd,, it takes experience and alot of time,,,, alot of data mining,, and analysis,, and other pshychological factors,, after all it is the public that pays for most things and its a huge crowd,, certainly more then wise guys,,, And you are here to exploit that difference....

    Once you have that experience,, you should be able to guess the direction of a line when it opens with strong accuracy,, thats where you gain value,, nowadays you will be paying -120 instead of -110 on half point movements atleast,, Which is why most books charge more to hedge against the loss they will take long term against your sharper players,, which is only a fractional cost they will incur considering the general public is no where near being sophisticated ,, which ultimately pays for the sharps winning and pocketing everything else after cost... 

    Yes there are public teams,,, if you data mined,, and studied each team,, you will find alot of value,, Like the Patriots as mentioned,, they will be a favorite most of the time,, even without players like welker , moss, A good back,, a banged up o line... So on one end you need to have your own data,, your own number,,, and when you see the line you need to compare your number with the number they set,, chances are there's a difference,, this will tell you alot about what the books want and what that number represents,,, if you do this over and over enough times,, you will become more wise,, and you can take a glance at a line sheet and be able to comprehend how to read a line... Dont go into this thinking it will be easy... Im a consistant winner myself,, and i cannot tell you in any way shape or form its easy.... Even if you are the god of sports,,, you still need to feed the system with new information each week... No matter what.... 






     
    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Oct. 15, 2014 - 12:30 AM ET #29

    As for what the public is on... Go join some office pools,,  spend some time watching major media outlets and record how many times they are correct and what they are trying to imply,, most of the times,, when i use this angle,, Im all ears,,, unless if they are showing some crazy catch made my dez bryant or something over and over again,, you need to have that attention span,,, rememeber you are measuring emotion of a large crowd,, The public makes decisions based on feelings and with their heart,, having said all that,,, i will give you a tip,, if you see the public make a play based on revenge because of what Team A did to team B,,, make sure you are on the other side,,, the public rememebers bad losses,,, this is what i call one type of  trap game,, and chances are they will do the same thing,, only this time,, they will hit it harder... I guarantee you this.... And books know that... Most of the times its built into the line,,,, being the price.... 
    Reply
    As for what the public is on... Go join some office pools,,  spend some time watching major media outlets and record how many times they are correct and what they are trying to imply,, most of the times,, when i use this angle,, Im all ears,,, unless if they are showing some crazy catch made my dez bryant or something over and over again,, you need to have that attention span,,, rememeber you are measuring emotion of a large crowd,, The public makes decisions based on feelings and with their heart,, having said all that,,, i will give you a tip,, if you see the public make a play based on revenge because of what Team A did to team B,,, make sure you are on the other side,,, the public rememebers bad losses,,, this is what i call one type of  trap game,, and chances are they will do the same thing,, only this time,, they will hit it harder... I guarantee you this.... And books know that... Most of the times its built into the line,,,, being the price.... 
     
    suuma
    suuma
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    Posted: Oct. 21, 2014 - 3:16 AM ET #30

    This thread should be fixed on top.
    Reply
    This thread should be fixed on top.
     
    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2014 - 5:12 PM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    This thread should be fixed on top.

    You are correct,, these get bumped down with a quickness.. 
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

    This thread should be fixed on top.

    You are correct,, these get bumped down with a quickness.. 
     
    HoldingXYZ
    HoldingXYZ
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2014 - 5:15 PM ET #32

    Heres a tip... Go back into some threads where the game is already finished... Keep a tab of who is correct... You will see a lot of threads with losing picks,, and a bunch of people shaking hands with good luck signs,,, Keep tab of those people that bump those threads... usually those losing threads are waaay at the bottom on page 3-5... The public only reads so far before they give up... Which is why they lose... 
    Reply
    Heres a tip... Go back into some threads where the game is already finished... Keep a tab of who is correct... You will see a lot of threads with losing picks,, and a bunch of people shaking hands with good luck signs,,, Keep tab of those people that bump those threads... usually those losing threads are waaay at the bottom on page 3-5... The public only reads so far before they give up... Which is why they lose... 
     
    NEPatriots122
    NEPatriots122
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    Posted: Oct. 22, 2014 - 7:12 PM ET #33

    Other sports places put in large bets with other sports places to hedge their bets as well. That's also why a line might reverse move.
    Reply
    Other sports places put in large bets with other sports places to hedge their bets as well. That's also why a line might reverse move.
     
    WarpedPath
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    Posted: Oct. 23, 2014 - 5:56 AM ET #34

    Why does it matter who the public is betting on?
    Reply
    Why does it matter who the public is betting on?
     
    Johnny-Utah
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2014 - 12:43 PM ET #35

    Best advice, if it hasn't become clear already, is to just skip over HoldingXYZ's posts. There is nothing of value there, only a headache.
    Reply
    Best advice, if it hasn't become clear already, is to just skip over HoldingXYZ's posts. There is nothing of value there, only a headache.
     
     
    LogCottage
    LogCottage
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    Posted: Oct. 24, 2014 - 4:42 PM ET #36

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny-Utah:

    Best advice, if it hasn't become clear already, is to just skip over HoldingXYZ's posts. There is nothing of value there, only a headache.


    Holding XYZ is still waiting for the Jets -3 line to change to +3.5!!!
    Rule #1- always recognize which side is the favorite and which is the dog.
    Rule #2- don't waste time on useless research that makes you sound
    (In YOUR mind) like an expert.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny-Utah:

    Best advice, if it hasn't become clear already, is to just skip over HoldingXYZ's posts. There is nothing of value there, only a headache.


    Holding XYZ is still waiting for the Jets -3 line to change to +3.5!!!
    Rule #1- always recognize which side is the favorite and which is the dog.
    Rule #2- don't waste time on useless research that makes you sound
    (In YOUR mind) like an expert.
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