Rule number 1... Never follow betting percentages of any site... This has more to do with total amount of money on one side,,, and heres the tricky part,,, 1 major book could be heavy on team A while another book could be heavy on team B.... While each book might have different information "wiseguys" or "consultants",, late or early information,,, this creates the arbitrage between books that want to gamble and books that do not gamble that is if they even have a choice,,, books that have a layoff system are the most sound so they do not have to take risk or rather taking 50/50 propositions is like free money... Books that do not have a layoff system usually have other propositions on either table games poker ect ect to spread risk ,, just think like an underwriter for an insurance company as an example,, the chances of an earthquake and a major comet the size of a continent hitting the earth is unlikely,, and even in this event they are covered...Think of it as a market... Every grocery store prices their goods differently... Its all built into the line,, Whether it be the vig or those point movements.... Meanwhile with the technology we have today,, books do not even open a line until they see another major book open a line so that they can peg their line with a line that is known to be profitable over time... This is what they call "Moving on Air"
Wise guys are a series within a system,, they are able to feed a system to shape a line into a profitable one...
To be ahead of a crowd,, it takes experience and alot of time,,,, alot of data mining,, and analysis,, and other pshychological factors,, after all it is the public that pays for most things and its a huge crowd,, certainly more then wise guys,,, And you are here to exploit that difference....
Once you have that experience,, you should be able to guess the direction of a line when it opens with strong accuracy,, thats where you gain value,, nowadays you will be paying -120 instead of -110 on half point movements atleast,, Which is why most books charge more to hedge against the loss they will take long term against your sharper players,, which is only a fractional cost they will incur considering the general public is no where near being sophisticated ,, which ultimately pays for the sharps winning and pocketing everything else after cost...
Yes there are public teams,,, if you data mined,, and studied each team,, you will find alot of value,, Like the Patriots as mentioned,, they will be a favorite most of the time,, even without players like welker , moss, A good back,, a banged up o line... So on one end you need to have your own data,, your own number,,, and when you see the line you need to compare your number with the number they set,, chances are there's a difference,, this will tell you alot about what the books want and what that number represents,,, if you do this over and over enough times,, you will become more wise,, and you can take a glance at a line sheet and be able to comprehend how to read a line... Dont go into this thinking it will be easy... Im a consistant winner myself,, and i cannot tell you in any way shape or form its easy.... Even if you are the god of sports,,, you still need to feed the system with new information each week... No matter what....