2013 NFL - 65%
2014 - 1-0
I went through the whole slate of games and the Jets and Giants are always preferable. The Jets game made me too uncomfortable the more I looked at it, and because of that, the more I realized this the game I should play.
I'll try to reduce the size of my write-ups for the reader who has a shorter attention span. Even at that, this will be the biggest write-up of the week on one game on this entire board.
We are going to back the Giants over the Texans.
Why?
1. Preseason lines
Cantor gaming releases lines before the season for all weeks and when there is a huge disparity, it should be looked into. The preseason line fore this game was -5 Giants. It is now a pickem on 5Dimes and +1 on Bovada.
That's a 6 point swing and among the biggest of the week. Worse it's from a favorite to an underdog.
When it's a home dog, that makes the swing against the previous favorite even more attractive. So just on that basis alone, you have have to open the door and consider the Giants as a bet.
2. Is the Giants season on the line in this game?
This was the basis for the last ML parlay r pick I posted in the Jets/Raiders. Was the Jets season on the line in that game? In essence, it was. And their brutal schedule ahead with the premier QB's they would face with a very limited secondary dictated it. The Jets were motivated and won.
At 0-6 last year, the Giants season ended 2 games before the midway point.
As shocking as that was, this simply isn't an organization that will let that happen two years in a row. And will 0-3 mean the season is pretty much done? Yes, or at least close to it. Lose this game and you get:
Week 4 @ Redskins
Week 5 Falcons
Week 6 @Eagles
Week 7 @ Cowboys
And here comes the whoppers:
Bye
Week 9 Colts
Week 10 @Seattle
Week 11 49ers
If they don't go into Week 9 at a minimum 3-4, the season will be over after a mere 7 weeks. So where are the 3 wins?
Well arguments can be made for many of the spots they can win in the first 7 weeks, but if the Giants go into week 4 0-3, with a new O-coordinator and overhauled offense that is winless, the season is essentially over.
The entire point of this bullet? The Giants know this and this is a must win. If they need to go into Week 7 with a MINIMUM of 3-4, and they go 0-3, they will need to win the next 3 of 4 and that's not happening if you lose 2 straight home games to a backup QB and one who should be a backup.
That is important since you will get the Giants team who is on red alert heading in.
Motivation will be at a maximum making them a bettable side.
Better yet, like the ML Jets game, we get the Giants on the ML with a Pick'em. No spread to worry us.
3. Is Houston a team they can beat?
I say yes.
What has Houston proven?
They beat a Redskin team that also was also overhauling its offense in Week 1 and had an ultra-rusty RG3 behind center (and he played admirably by the way). I'd like to note in that game the Redskins coughed the ball up two times in the Red Zone costing them two crucial scores. Don't let the final score of 17-6 think it was a 'dominant' performance by Houston in any way. In fact, they probably should have/could have lost.
In Week 2 they crushed the Raiders, the worst team in the league with a rookie QB.
So essentially, the Texans can't be faulted for beating two teams, one woeful and one unprepared with a new offense, but we can downgrade them based on those victories at 2-0.
Therefore, we need to upgrade the Giants to take them. And we should be able to upgrade here.
The Lions game was over before it started. The Giants were in a very tough spot situationally debuting their West Coast offense on national TV on a Monday night in Week 1 after a preseason where Eli go limited reps.
In Week 2 even though they lost to a backup QB at home, they also had 2 crucial turnovers near/in the red zone which resulted in a 15 point 4th quarter for AZ.
On paper, the Giants won this game. They won TimeofP, yards gained, had a 4th quarter lead and lost the turnover battle. Have Eli's turnover issues been resolved? No. But he is cutting down on them in comparison to last year which is encouraging. And he's looking more comfortable after only two weeks which is key.
If the running game for NY can be 75% of what it should be, that should be enough to win this game. All over the NY media the running game has been scrutinized and Coughlin has paid special attention calling out the RB's this week (which matters since they can be jettisoned at season's end).
Lastly, let's not go crazy about Ryan Fitzpatrick. This is a guy who could have been out of the league 2 years ago after a disasterous stint in Buffalo (and a highly mediocre one in Tennessee).
I don't care what his QBR is over two games, when the heat is on, this guy folds like a cheap suit. And the Giants, although mediocre themselves, will bring the heat this week pressuring a guy who doesn't handle pressure well.
I see Fitz being overwhelmed and a rookie head coach panicking. If the Giants have any run defense because of this, they should win by 10+.
Well the Giants went 0-3 last year you say, why not again?
Why? Because the Giants had to play the Broncos in week 2last year (and lost 41-23) and then had to go on the road in week 3 against a rock solid Carolina team that smoked them (and many others).
Compare this to Arizona in week 2 at home and now they stay home again and get Houston. Houston meanwhile had to go west and come east, both games on the road. Even with the offensive overhaul, this is still a much better spot this year in comparison for NY.
Stars? Not 4 stars but 3 because we could have gotten +2.5 NY earlier in the week so we are a bit late to the game (I honestly thought it would touch +3 at some point).
The Pick:
GIANTS Pick'em over Texans
So here is the cliff notes.
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