I have wagered on football for the last 12 years. This September has been by far the worst month I have ever had. I spend hours a week researching college and NFL every week. It is like a second job. I have had profitable years and years in the negative, but I have never had a 4 week stretch like this.
This year football, for me, has been so frustrating. I feel like I have capped games well. Usually the 1st month is my strongest and then I regress back to the mean. Each week this month I have lost multiple units. Tonights MNF (Steelers/Bucs) is just icing on the cake.
After watching a few drives and seeing how each team moved the ball with ease. I took the live over at 59.5. After 30 1st half points, the Steelers provided 0 in the 2nd half, including a misssed fg. Game total falls 57.
I don't want to chase or go on tilt, but this September is really tempting me. How do you handle a cold streak? How do you break out of it?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I have wagered on football for the last 12 years. This September has been by far the worst month I have ever had. I spend hours a week researching college and NFL every week. It is like a second job. I have had profitable years and years in the negative, but I have never had a 4 week stretch like this.
This year football, for me, has been so frustrating. I feel like I have capped games well. Usually the 1st month is my strongest and then I regress back to the mean. Each week this month I have lost multiple units. Tonights MNF (Steelers/Bucs) is just icing on the cake.
After watching a few drives and seeing how each team moved the ball with ease. I took the live over at 59.5. After 30 1st half points, the Steelers provided 0 in the 2nd half, including a misssed fg. Game total falls 57.
I don't want to chase or go on tilt, but this September is really tempting me. How do you handle a cold streak? How do you break out of it?
Breathe and tell yourself the streak is coming..... also depends if you think most these games are actually played it to there potential. Most at these games are tampered with.... that’s just how it goes. You’ll make more money of perception rather than who is the better squad.
*of
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Quote Originally Posted by ToddC:
Breathe and tell yourself the streak is coming..... also depends if you think most these games are actually played it to there potential. Most at these games are tampered with.... that’s just how it goes. You’ll make more money of perception rather than who is the better squad.
Sorry to hear that but here are the obvious answers.
1. Take a break
2. Bet smaller units
3. Just get away from sports in general. Go back to one of your other hobbies.
4. Ride it out
Hopefully you take a break for a bit because researching all these sports probably burns your out especially if you consider it a part time source of income. No need to blow your prior season's winnings, go on more tilt and lose more. Just take a break man. BOL man..
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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Sorry to hear that but here are the obvious answers.
1. Take a break
2. Bet smaller units
3. Just get away from sports in general. Go back to one of your other hobbies.
4. Ride it out
Hopefully you take a break for a bit because researching all these sports probably burns your out especially if you consider it a part time source of income. No need to blow your prior season's winnings, go on more tilt and lose more. Just take a break man. BOL man..
I have wagered on football for the last 12 years. This September has been by far the worst month I have ever had. I spend hours a week researching college and NFL every week. It is like a second job. I have had profitable years and years in the negative, but I have never had a 4 week stretch like this. This year football, for me, has been so frustrating. I feel like I have capped games well. Usually the 1st month is my strongest and then I regress back to the mean. Each week this month I have lost multiple units. Tonights MNF (Steelers/Bucs) is just icing on the cake. After watching a few drives and seeing how each team moved the ball with ease. I took the live over at 59.5. After 30 1st half points, the Steelers provided 0 in the 2nd half, including a misssed fg. Game total falls 57. I don't want to chase or go on tilt, but this September is really tempting me. How do you handle a cold streak? How do you break out of it?
#1 The flow of the game early can be a set up. The opposite can happen quite often later in the game. If it looks too easy, it usually isn't. Same goes for TB taking a 7-0 lead. Things sure did change later in the 1st half.
#2 Take a week off.
FIND JESUS / GO DAWGS / NOTHING IS WHAT IT APPEARS
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Quote Originally Posted by GoSTLCards:
I have wagered on football for the last 12 years. This September has been by far the worst month I have ever had. I spend hours a week researching college and NFL every week. It is like a second job. I have had profitable years and years in the negative, but I have never had a 4 week stretch like this. This year football, for me, has been so frustrating. I feel like I have capped games well. Usually the 1st month is my strongest and then I regress back to the mean. Each week this month I have lost multiple units. Tonights MNF (Steelers/Bucs) is just icing on the cake. After watching a few drives and seeing how each team moved the ball with ease. I took the live over at 59.5. After 30 1st half points, the Steelers provided 0 in the 2nd half, including a misssed fg. Game total falls 57. I don't want to chase or go on tilt, but this September is really tempting me. How do you handle a cold streak? How do you break out of it?
#1 The flow of the game early can be a set up. The opposite can happen quite often later in the game. If it looks too easy, it usually isn't. Same goes for TB taking a 7-0 lead. Things sure did change later in the 1st half.
Keep capping but don't bet actual money until you turn things around. i do this during different times of the year. Hot and cold streaks happen to everyone.
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Keep capping but don't bet actual money until you turn things around. i do this during different times of the year. Hot and cold streaks happen to everyone.
Self fade. I'm cold too but I came back a little betting against myself. It is hard to push that submit button but knowing that you have no choice and at the end, you just have to use that old mentality of bet it and forget about it.
I hate the jinx. When I post online my plays, I lose. When I don't and go on sneak attack style, I win. It then becomes a habit so I'm going to continue to do just that. I used to sit at home and from dawn till the last game on Saturday, I would concentrate and play all day. Very stressful indeed. Now I bet it and don't even watch it to keep my stress level down.
I try different method to come up. Like parlay 3 teams for 1 unit and bet single game for 1.1 units. If parlay loses, hopefully the single game will recover my parlay money back to even money no lose week.
Try different money management system. Take it easy. Plenty of easier games in the coming weeks.
X_____________________________
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Self fade. I'm cold too but I came back a little betting against myself. It is hard to push that submit button but knowing that you have no choice and at the end, you just have to use that old mentality of bet it and forget about it.
I hate the jinx. When I post online my plays, I lose. When I don't and go on sneak attack style, I win. It then becomes a habit so I'm going to continue to do just that. I used to sit at home and from dawn till the last game on Saturday, I would concentrate and play all day. Very stressful indeed. Now I bet it and don't even watch it to keep my stress level down.
I try different method to come up. Like parlay 3 teams for 1 unit and bet single game for 1.1 units. If parlay loses, hopefully the single game will recover my parlay money back to even money no lose week.
Try different money management system. Take it easy. Plenty of easier games in the coming weeks.
Anyone who seriously believes they can make a profit out of this is fooling themselves.
The wins will stay for a while and then the harsh reality sets in for months (sometimes years) on end.
Don't chase. That won't stop you but believe me, nothing worse than blowing literally thousands, ten's of thousands and chasing until you are back to negative.
If I could only wager one game a week, I honestly believe I would be making profits but not many can do that as we are gambling addicts.
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It's gambling.
Anyone who seriously believes they can make a profit out of this is fooling themselves.
The wins will stay for a while and then the harsh reality sets in for months (sometimes years) on end.
Don't chase. That won't stop you but believe me, nothing worse than blowing literally thousands, ten's of thousands and chasing until you are back to negative.
If I could only wager one game a week, I honestly believe I would be making profits but not many can do that as we are gambling addicts.
After watching a few drives and seeing how each team moved the ball with ease. I took the live over at 59.5. After 30 1st half points, the Steelers provided 0 in the 2nd half, including a misssed fg. Game total falls 57.
So, you unfortunately fell for the classic bait and switch ingame line...you took over 59.5 when the original line was 54.5....taking a -EV wager is never going to work...at that point in the game, discipline must be shown and you either take the under or pass....the original line is almost always the barometer to where the result comes close to.
Also, with every sport, the first month is pure crapshoot...we simply dont have enough data to truly expect our caps to be on point....surviving the 1st month is very hard if you choose to wager in volume...this season especially we are being exposed to a completely different game than we are used to because of the flag and new rules which are changing the games outcomes.
Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
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After watching a few drives and seeing how each team moved the ball with ease. I took the live over at 59.5. After 30 1st half points, the Steelers provided 0 in the 2nd half, including a misssed fg. Game total falls 57.
So, you unfortunately fell for the classic bait and switch ingame line...you took over 59.5 when the original line was 54.5....taking a -EV wager is never going to work...at that point in the game, discipline must be shown and you either take the under or pass....the original line is almost always the barometer to where the result comes close to.
Also, with every sport, the first month is pure crapshoot...we simply dont have enough data to truly expect our caps to be on point....surviving the 1st month is very hard if you choose to wager in volume...this season especially we are being exposed to a completely different game than we are used to because of the flag and new rules which are changing the games outcomes.
Also, historically speaking, that Pitts 1st half explosion was a direct result of several fluke plays all scewed to their favor...it was all set up for a 2h under and Bucs cover...always look for +EV spots ingame...your streak will turnaround when you put yourself in winning +EV positions
Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
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Also, historically speaking, that Pitts 1st half explosion was a direct result of several fluke plays all scewed to their favor...it was all set up for a 2h under and Bucs cover...always look for +EV spots ingame...your streak will turnaround when you put yourself in winning +EV positions
Please don't dismiss what i am about to ask/tell you, Just have an open mind to it.
I went through a year long cold streak last year, I think my record NFL/Soccer combined last year was something like 21-90, I would win the odd bet here and there the euphoria would get to my head and i would lose 2/3 in a row again, Then i would bring my A game, Win a bet, The euphoria would get to me and the same pattern would happen again.
This year i have won all three weeks in the NFL and i know it's a small sample but virtually all of my leans have been accurate and the bets i have laid off all ending up losing.
What have i done differently this year?? I have started eating better, Working out more, Last year i was going through some personal mental issues, Family related stress, The loss of my mom to cancer a year or so ago still affecting me. Working out/Eating healthier the past few months has made me feel overall so better that now i analyze games differently. I see things about teams that i used to miss, I was on the Bills +17 and was tempted to play the ML but didn't have cojones big enough.In the past i would have been that sucker who teased the Vikings down to -9 or something. Having a better mental state of mind really can give you an edge, Believe me. Why do we use the term 'degenerate'? A degenerate is someone who has lost the physical, mental or moral qualities considered normal i.e. You drink, smoke, recklessly gamble etc.
If you are working out, Eat healthy etc and are still on this cold streak then i think you need some time off to recharge your batteries.
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Please don't dismiss what i am about to ask/tell you, Just have an open mind to it.
I went through a year long cold streak last year, I think my record NFL/Soccer combined last year was something like 21-90, I would win the odd bet here and there the euphoria would get to my head and i would lose 2/3 in a row again, Then i would bring my A game, Win a bet, The euphoria would get to me and the same pattern would happen again.
This year i have won all three weeks in the NFL and i know it's a small sample but virtually all of my leans have been accurate and the bets i have laid off all ending up losing.
What have i done differently this year?? I have started eating better, Working out more, Last year i was going through some personal mental issues, Family related stress, The loss of my mom to cancer a year or so ago still affecting me. Working out/Eating healthier the past few months has made me feel overall so better that now i analyze games differently. I see things about teams that i used to miss, I was on the Bills +17 and was tempted to play the ML but didn't have cojones big enough.In the past i would have been that sucker who teased the Vikings down to -9 or something. Having a better mental state of mind really can give you an edge, Believe me. Why do we use the term 'degenerate'? A degenerate is someone who has lost the physical, mental or moral qualities considered normal i.e. You drink, smoke, recklessly gamble etc.
If you are working out, Eat healthy etc and are still on this cold streak then i think you need some time off to recharge your batteries.
Start off with a foundation of good solid working concepts on judging performance and money management. This is how you will be profitable in the long run. Control your bets and don't let them control you. I have the mindset there are incorrect wagers and wrong wagers. For example in week 3, I was examining two plays. At he moment, I do not group my initial card on strength of plays because I end up screwing myself doing things that way. I was not really liking my Bengals pick, but my performance numbers gave a slight edge to the Bengals and the Panthers had a bunch of key injuries. Another game I had on my card was Bears Cards. There was no way I could legitimately go with the Cards. The Bears won and the Cards covered. The only game I had money was the Pats games with the moneyline. I thought the highest probability was the Pats winning the game, so I went with that.
These things happen. On a good day, a top handicapper is incorrect 40% of the time.
Continue going with your strengths as a handicapper and avoid your weaknesses. I was intending to keep practicing with the Westgate contest, but I got off to such a poor start, it was not worthwhile to continue.
I post my picks and analysis to overcome betting anxiety and then I can focus on the individual aspects of each game after posting.
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Start off with a foundation of good solid working concepts on judging performance and money management. This is how you will be profitable in the long run. Control your bets and don't let them control you. I have the mindset there are incorrect wagers and wrong wagers. For example in week 3, I was examining two plays. At he moment, I do not group my initial card on strength of plays because I end up screwing myself doing things that way. I was not really liking my Bengals pick, but my performance numbers gave a slight edge to the Bengals and the Panthers had a bunch of key injuries. Another game I had on my card was Bears Cards. There was no way I could legitimately go with the Cards. The Bears won and the Cards covered. The only game I had money was the Pats games with the moneyline. I thought the highest probability was the Pats winning the game, so I went with that.
These things happen. On a good day, a top handicapper is incorrect 40% of the time.
Continue going with your strengths as a handicapper and avoid your weaknesses. I was intending to keep practicing with the Westgate contest, but I got off to such a poor start, it was not worthwhile to continue.
I post my picks and analysis to overcome betting anxiety and then I can focus on the individual aspects of each game after posting.
I started wagering on sports in elementary and I haven't had a losing stretch since I was in my early 20s. I'm 35 now. I would start by asking you how many games you play in a week/weekend? I focus on college and I try to narrow don't to 10 solid picks. I'll mix in some various parlays and teasers, and i'll play a little NFL and some NCAA during the week but Saturday is my big day. The reason I pick in the neighborhoos of 10 is because it's nearly impossible for me to not go atleast 6 for 10. So with juice and various parlays and teasers, I always atleast break even. Now, if I only picked, say 3, or 1, it's be easy to take some losses. When i'm going a minimum of 6 out of 10, sometimes one of the losses is my top pick. Sometimes my top 2 or 3 are the losses. So volume is important for me. It's easy to go 0-2 but like I said, if you know what you are doing, it's really hard to not atleast hit on 6 out of 10.
Then there are the basics. Money management. Not betting on emotion. Not chasing. Concepts you should already grasp at this point.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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I started wagering on sports in elementary and I haven't had a losing stretch since I was in my early 20s. I'm 35 now. I would start by asking you how many games you play in a week/weekend? I focus on college and I try to narrow don't to 10 solid picks. I'll mix in some various parlays and teasers, and i'll play a little NFL and some NCAA during the week but Saturday is my big day. The reason I pick in the neighborhoos of 10 is because it's nearly impossible for me to not go atleast 6 for 10. So with juice and various parlays and teasers, I always atleast break even. Now, if I only picked, say 3, or 1, it's be easy to take some losses. When i'm going a minimum of 6 out of 10, sometimes one of the losses is my top pick. Sometimes my top 2 or 3 are the losses. So volume is important for me. It's easy to go 0-2 but like I said, if you know what you are doing, it's really hard to not atleast hit on 6 out of 10.
Then there are the basics. Money management. Not betting on emotion. Not chasing. Concepts you should already grasp at this point.
I also read you mentioned something about taking a live at 59? I'm sure the other brothers have mentioned it but that's a chase. There are guy's that do very well with live betting but they still rely on their capping and strategy. You'll lose a lot of money by watching a bit of a game, or a half, then saying, "Well, it looks like it's going this way so...." and then jumping on a live number that's higher the the pregame number. If you capped that game for a over, then bet it pregame. You would've won. Watching a bit of a game and then saying, "Looks like they're scoring.." is not capping.
I've been wagering over 20 years but I don't do a bunch of live because it's not what I do. Some guys kill it but they're applying strategy to it. Betting live is all about finding advantage. Betting a live number that's 4 of 5 points higher than the kick-off number is not and advantage. Especially a number near 60 in a NFL game.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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I also read you mentioned something about taking a live at 59? I'm sure the other brothers have mentioned it but that's a chase. There are guy's that do very well with live betting but they still rely on their capping and strategy. You'll lose a lot of money by watching a bit of a game, or a half, then saying, "Well, it looks like it's going this way so...." and then jumping on a live number that's higher the the pregame number. If you capped that game for a over, then bet it pregame. You would've won. Watching a bit of a game and then saying, "Looks like they're scoring.." is not capping.
I've been wagering over 20 years but I don't do a bunch of live because it's not what I do. Some guys kill it but they're applying strategy to it. Betting live is all about finding advantage. Betting a live number that's 4 of 5 points higher than the kick-off number is not and advantage. Especially a number near 60 in a NFL game.
Guy's are really good at live betting, of which i'm not one of, would've looked at that live line and said, "This game opened at 52, closed at 55, but it at 59 live? I'm gonna take my chances with the under. I think Pitt will try to salt the game away with the big lead." That's what I mean about finding advantages. The really goos live bettors would've caught the open over 52 then the live under 59 and got both. That's not how I wagwr but there are guys that kill it like that.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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Guy's are really good at live betting, of which i'm not one of, would've looked at that live line and said, "This game opened at 52, closed at 55, but it at 59 live? I'm gonna take my chances with the under. I think Pitt will try to salt the game away with the big lead." That's what I mean about finding advantages. The really goos live bettors would've caught the open over 52 then the live under 59 and got both. That's not how I wagwr but there are guys that kill it like that.
This is how I get out of a losing streak. Cut back on number of games wagered on. Research less if you are spending a whole lot of time running all the numbers in your head it can get confusing if you do it all week. Play a team that covers at home a lot avoid road team plays for a week or two. This worked on Sunday I was hearing a lot of people on Dallas and that Seattle defense was gone maybe so but that’s Seattle at home. Home opener at that - only giving up 1.5 in a place where over the past few years they don’t lose much. I knew that was my play last Monday when it came out. I’ve been there I’m sure a lot of others on here been there too. Funny how it will turn around go 0-7 then rip off 12 or 13 in a row it happens. Too bad cutler retired you or you could just wait for him to have a good game then load up next week ha. Good luck.
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This is how I get out of a losing streak. Cut back on number of games wagered on. Research less if you are spending a whole lot of time running all the numbers in your head it can get confusing if you do it all week. Play a team that covers at home a lot avoid road team plays for a week or two. This worked on Sunday I was hearing a lot of people on Dallas and that Seattle defense was gone maybe so but that’s Seattle at home. Home opener at that - only giving up 1.5 in a place where over the past few years they don’t lose much. I knew that was my play last Monday when it came out. I’ve been there I’m sure a lot of others on here been there too. Funny how it will turn around go 0-7 then rip off 12 or 13 in a row it happens. Too bad cutler retired you or you could just wait for him to have a good game then load up next week ha. Good luck.
Unless you are financially hurt, just keep plugging away like nothing happened. Stick to your gameplan. You may have to temper your end of the season goals, but keep doing your thing, 2-3 winning weeks come along, the ball with start bouncing your way. And maybe it is Week 11 before you break even, but that’s when you look to finishing in the plus before Super Bowl.
If this fails; it just might not be your year. We all have them. Pack it in and lay low until the playoffs.
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Unless you are financially hurt, just keep plugging away like nothing happened. Stick to your gameplan. You may have to temper your end of the season goals, but keep doing your thing, 2-3 winning weeks come along, the ball with start bouncing your way. And maybe it is Week 11 before you break even, but that’s when you look to finishing in the plus before Super Bowl.
If this fails; it just might not be your year. We all have them. Pack it in and lay low until the playoffs.
90% of bettors get buried because of $$ management...When they lose and are on a losing streak and things are running bad they will chase and double/triple up...However when they are winning they are flat betting because they don't want to lose their profits..
Mayweather bet 450000 on
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90% of bettors get buried because of $$ management...When they lose and are on a losing streak and things are running bad they will chase and double/triple up...However when they are winning they are flat betting because they don't want to lose their profits..
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