Although I've been following the Covers.com for years - I was always as an observer, trying to get the info and use it for my own benefit. There is almost a year now that I didn't have to deposit any funds into my betting accounts and managed even to keep withdrawing my winnings month after month for some time. And those were no accidental string of events that led to it, but the result of thorough study of the markets, trends and the right usage of all the vast info displayed daily here.
I want to share that knowledge with you for free and no hidden agendas whatsoever. And yes, please remember that the Money Management is the key to create the Steady Monthly Income month in and month out.
So, let me gather up all my notes and begin.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Although I've been following the Covers.com for years - I was always as an observer, trying to get the info and use it for my own benefit. There is almost a year now that I didn't have to deposit any funds into my betting accounts and managed even to keep withdrawing my winnings month after month for some time. And those were no accidental string of events that led to it, but the result of thorough study of the markets, trends and the right usage of all the vast info displayed daily here.
I want to share that knowledge with you for free and no hidden agendas whatsoever. And yes, please remember that the Money Management is the key to create the Steady Monthly Income month in and month out.
There are few conditions before you go throwing the money at the books. The first and utmost is Money Management. So, what really means money management?
A. Setting up your bankroll.
B. Deciding how many games at the same time are you going to wager.
C. Deciding if you're going to wager the halftimes and participate in live betting.
D. Setting the maximal juice you're willing to pay and choosing the book/s accordingly.
E. Calculating how many losses you can afford without being affected pocket wise.
F. Calculating the size of the wager and deciding if it is going to be a straight bet (100$ to win 90$ by the odds of -110, or betting 110$ to win 100$ - for an example).
G. Deciding if you at any stage are going to take parlay bets or not. Because, if you do - you should look at your money management in a different way and set some amount aside for those kind of adventures.
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1. Should I handicap my own games?
There are few conditions before you go throwing the money at the books. The first and utmost is Money Management. So, what really means money management?
A. Setting up your bankroll.
B. Deciding how many games at the same time are you going to wager.
C. Deciding if you're going to wager the halftimes and participate in live betting.
D. Setting the maximal juice you're willing to pay and choosing the book/s accordingly.
E. Calculating how many losses you can afford without being affected pocket wise.
F. Calculating the size of the wager and deciding if it is going to be a straight bet (100$ to win 90$ by the odds of -110, or betting 110$ to win 100$ - for an example).
G. Deciding if you at any stage are going to take parlay bets or not. Because, if you do - you should look at your money management in a different way and set some amount aside for those kind of adventures.
The next thing is deciding what are the criteria for betting the game. Are you a spot play bettor? Or are you betting by the strength of the QB or a pitcher? Or a dominant player/s you believe will perform well based on stats (basketball)? Or are you a totals bettor? Are you using all the stats available or are you looking at the line movements and betting accordingly? With the public or against?Can you identify reverse line movements or are you using the strategy of - most games based on line movement will win? Are you following injury reports? And how are using the absence of a start player in a first game without him? Against the team or for the team?
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The next thing is deciding what are the criteria for betting the game. Are you a spot play bettor? Or are you betting by the strength of the QB or a pitcher? Or a dominant player/s you believe will perform well based on stats (basketball)? Or are you a totals bettor? Are you using all the stats available or are you looking at the line movements and betting accordingly? With the public or against?Can you identify reverse line movements or are you using the strategy of - most games based on line movement will win? Are you following injury reports? And how are using the absence of a start player in a first game without him? Against the team or for the team?
I am delivering it in a manner that can be thought about and analysed in a proper manner. That is the reason for a slow delivery. And, of course, I will deliver my methodology as well as some picks as we roll
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I am delivering it in a manner that can be thought about and analysed in a proper manner. That is the reason for a slow delivery. And, of course, I will deliver my methodology as well as some picks as we roll
Handicapping sports by yourself can be very time consuming. One take is not enough for true analysis. You have to get the lines as early as possible and check on them throughout the day in order not only to see when the changes occur but also finding out the reasons for it. For an example - if some player has been scratched or not, if some new circumstances forcing the move. And if not - then there must be some money involved, because the lines and the odds do not change by themselves. If they do by an initiation of the books - that happens as a Reverse Line Movement when the books are inviting you to bet on a certain outcome and you should be able to identify that. It is important to determine if RLM happens throughout the day or few hours before the game. So, as I said in the beginning - if you're intending to dedicate to handicapping only few moments - you better reconsider handicapping by yourself. Because you might get lucky occasionally - but that won't last for long.
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Handicapping sports by yourself can be very time consuming. One take is not enough for true analysis. You have to get the lines as early as possible and check on them throughout the day in order not only to see when the changes occur but also finding out the reasons for it. For an example - if some player has been scratched or not, if some new circumstances forcing the move. And if not - then there must be some money involved, because the lines and the odds do not change by themselves. If they do by an initiation of the books - that happens as a Reverse Line Movement when the books are inviting you to bet on a certain outcome and you should be able to identify that. It is important to determine if RLM happens throughout the day or few hours before the game. So, as I said in the beginning - if you're intending to dedicate to handicapping only few moments - you better reconsider handicapping by yourself. Because you might get lucky occasionally - but that won't last for long.
I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won!
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I found out that betting with the books is very profitable and going against the is very risky. So, when someone tells me that he just found a flow in a line set by the books and is going to take an advantage of it - I'm very skeptical about it and take some time to check how is that possible. True, that occurs from time to time, but it is much safer to roll with the books on their side than against them. So, when the line opens at -6.5 and goes down to -5.5 despite the public being all over the favorite team thinking he has a steal here - I'm checking and rechecking that to find out if there's a reason for that. I'm trying to say here what most of you may already know - the pick you didn't lose is as sweet as the one you won!
2. Should I follow/tail the leaders of the Contests, and if yes - which?
Well, that's a very tricky subject. I'll start with Streak Survivor contest. Some years ago already, I organized myself an excel file entering the names of the leaders from the first page (50) of the streak survivor contest. After seeing that I need to narrow the list down - I started selecting them by a following criteria: less than 15 losses on a page of 50 plays. I chose the first 5 and eliminated opposing picks. That worked for few days until it came clear to me that most leaders bet on the same game which becomes very popular and I can't really risk take the same bet 4 or 5 times because the losses occur in 50% rate more or less. Soon I realized that there is a reason very little of them reach 21 or more consecutive wins. Then I started charting monthly leaders of streak survivor in order to benefit from those who even after they lose a game - are back to the winning ways. That also worked for few days until again I realized that the leaders mostly take the same bet and fall together. Again, with consistency and some luck - for a short period of time some gains can be made, but that is not exactly the steady source of income as they cool off fast and no one stays hot when the month ends. And then you have to start from 0 again.
The second source I tried was approaching the League Contests. Well, there the guys bet 10-15 games a night and that's not realistic for me as one bad day can erase few days of hard work and at all - I'm not built to bet so many games at the same time. The only person I had success with was moman years back in NBA contest. He never repeated that success in a years to come.
Then I went to office pools and all kinds of different contests initiated by Covers as Hawaiian contest with 3 games. Here too, there were some successes, but not really for a long time or time enough to build a methodology based on it.
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2. Should I follow/tail the leaders of the Contests, and if yes - which?
Well, that's a very tricky subject. I'll start with Streak Survivor contest. Some years ago already, I organized myself an excel file entering the names of the leaders from the first page (50) of the streak survivor contest. After seeing that I need to narrow the list down - I started selecting them by a following criteria: less than 15 losses on a page of 50 plays. I chose the first 5 and eliminated opposing picks. That worked for few days until it came clear to me that most leaders bet on the same game which becomes very popular and I can't really risk take the same bet 4 or 5 times because the losses occur in 50% rate more or less. Soon I realized that there is a reason very little of them reach 21 or more consecutive wins. Then I started charting monthly leaders of streak survivor in order to benefit from those who even after they lose a game - are back to the winning ways. That also worked for few days until again I realized that the leaders mostly take the same bet and fall together. Again, with consistency and some luck - for a short period of time some gains can be made, but that is not exactly the steady source of income as they cool off fast and no one stays hot when the month ends. And then you have to start from 0 again.
The second source I tried was approaching the League Contests. Well, there the guys bet 10-15 games a night and that's not realistic for me as one bad day can erase few days of hard work and at all - I'm not built to bet so many games at the same time. The only person I had success with was moman years back in NBA contest. He never repeated that success in a years to come.
Then I went to office pools and all kinds of different contests initiated by Covers as Hawaiian contest with 3 games. Here too, there were some successes, but not really for a long time or time enough to build a methodology based on it.
3. Should I find some great handicapper from various forums and stick with his picks no matter what?
Ok, I've searched for such "supercapper" and at times found one. Or at least I thought I did. The problem starts to occur when either the "supercapper" get cold, becomes a tout, or stops showing up on a permanent bases.
Let's define the "supercapper". That's not a tipster who occasionally shows up with some hot tip. I have nothing against, but you can't base your strategy of betting on occasional tipsters as good as they can be. So, the "supercapper" has offer his picks on a daily basis. Not too many plays (5 at the most) and have a certain set values as the sports he's good at, time of the day he shows up (otherwise you'll have to spend the most of the day waiting for his plays - because if you don't - the line or the odds can be very different from the ones he capped and you'll have to take unnecessary risks as the result) and most important one - no chasing after losing plays.
At times I was sure I was at the right time with the right "supercapper", but that didn't last long. You simply have to identify the moment you stop tailing the guy and switching to another one who becomes hot and will take time until he'll get cold. Well, too many variables to throw money on. Although, there were few that stayed hot long enough of their disciplined play - they either went tout, or were banned because of most probably the monkey business, or simply disappeared making money for themselves without sharing it anymore. I even followed some to their own sites until eventually there too they became touts or got cold. In other words - tailing others on a permanent basis is not viable and doesn't hold the water for long enough. So, you're back to square one with a bit more knowledge about sports handicapping and more convinced that you have to take many variables into account when talking about methodology.
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3. Should I find some great handicapper from various forums and stick with his picks no matter what?
Ok, I've searched for such "supercapper" and at times found one. Or at least I thought I did. The problem starts to occur when either the "supercapper" get cold, becomes a tout, or stops showing up on a permanent bases.
Let's define the "supercapper". That's not a tipster who occasionally shows up with some hot tip. I have nothing against, but you can't base your strategy of betting on occasional tipsters as good as they can be. So, the "supercapper" has offer his picks on a daily basis. Not too many plays (5 at the most) and have a certain set values as the sports he's good at, time of the day he shows up (otherwise you'll have to spend the most of the day waiting for his plays - because if you don't - the line or the odds can be very different from the ones he capped and you'll have to take unnecessary risks as the result) and most important one - no chasing after losing plays.
At times I was sure I was at the right time with the right "supercapper", but that didn't last long. You simply have to identify the moment you stop tailing the guy and switching to another one who becomes hot and will take time until he'll get cold. Well, too many variables to throw money on. Although, there were few that stayed hot long enough of their disciplined play - they either went tout, or were banned because of most probably the monkey business, or simply disappeared making money for themselves without sharing it anymore. I even followed some to their own sites until eventually there too they became touts or got cold. In other words - tailing others on a permanent basis is not viable and doesn't hold the water for long enough. So, you're back to square one with a bit more knowledge about sports handicapping and more convinced that you have to take many variables into account when talking about methodology.
4.Should I integrate all the written above methods and play the games that are in agreement with all the conditions above?
If you read all that I've written so far, the answer is NO. You can't integrate greatly unknown values.
5. Should I put aside everything I do and focus on sports betting as a profession that will support me and my family in a steady fashion?
Bit risky if you have no prior experience. Easy does it. Start small, learn the trade and then decide if you're gifted enough to do it.
6. Should I buy picks? And if yes - how I know who is for real and who is just a prank?
Those that are really good - making enough money themselves not to need selling their picks and others stay hot for a limited period of times. More than that - I came across sites that have few handicappers who post opposite picks on the same game. What the hell - one of them is always right. I know few that are having private sites and it's not easy to get into there. Besides, you need lots of money to start with in order to be able to afford occasional juice when the losses occur.
So, what to do then? And how? And with what bankroll?
Answers to all those are coming up!
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4.Should I integrate all the written above methods and play the games that are in agreement with all the conditions above?
If you read all that I've written so far, the answer is NO. You can't integrate greatly unknown values.
5. Should I put aside everything I do and focus on sports betting as a profession that will support me and my family in a steady fashion?
Bit risky if you have no prior experience. Easy does it. Start small, learn the trade and then decide if you're gifted enough to do it.
6. Should I buy picks? And if yes - how I know who is for real and who is just a prank?
Those that are really good - making enough money themselves not to need selling their picks and others stay hot for a limited period of times. More than that - I came across sites that have few handicappers who post opposite picks on the same game. What the hell - one of them is always right. I know few that are having private sites and it's not easy to get into there. Besides, you need lots of money to start with in order to be able to afford occasional juice when the losses occur.
So, what to do then? And how? And with what bankroll?
Coming up buddy. Digestion of all the written above should take some time. This is not a race. This is a serious business and I intend to treat it as one.
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Quote Originally Posted by theguru1:
wheres the rest of it?
Coming up buddy. Digestion of all the written above should take some time. This is not a race. This is a serious business and I intend to treat it as one.
I started with 2000$ bankroll and knew I had to be very careful with that bankroll as I had more or less 20 plays in me playing straight bets of 100% per unit and even less playing the odds to get 100$ as a winning unit. I decided in the beginning to do it playing straight bets.
So, I will do the same here again.
I have week days graded by their characteristics and the action. Mondays are NBA plays with underdog's having the clear edge. MNF is a public fade and usually under day. Not always. But most will do.
Tuesdays are a regular handicapping day in NBA as is Wednesday and Thursday is a totally different story. NBA has usually 3 games offered on that day and fading the public is a root from which I develop my handicapping. It is usually Under day as well as Underdog day mostly. Fridays are back to normal handicapping day and Saturday has usually College Football (not anymore) and NBA action that Unders and Underdogs have to be looked at as a root.
Sunday is the best days as NFL kicks in and some NBA plays as well always made me a profit.
So, the first thing I do is eliminating the games I don't touch. I do that after checking the matchups on Covers, read the previews, interviews, look at the notes I took in past games of the teams and checking ATS columns. If Totals play attracts my attention - I check on the officials to see if there are any trends holding (MLB and NBA). I mark the opening lines and never look back at the games I did not like in the beginning (call it a gut feeling if you want). For an example: I didn't like any plays today in NBA. Any! Not the totals nor the spreads. I did lean on Under in College Football, but after the line dropped 3 points - I decided to stay away. Days that I don't like any plays happen once in a while and that's no big deal for me as I try not to be impulsive gambler but the one who is playing the games he believes in them without a doubt. Smallest of the doubts - I'm out. If you want to make the money on a permanent bases in sports handicapping - that is the only way. Again - the bet you didn't lose is as good as the bet you won.
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So, how do I do it? How did I do it?
I started with 2000$ bankroll and knew I had to be very careful with that bankroll as I had more or less 20 plays in me playing straight bets of 100% per unit and even less playing the odds to get 100$ as a winning unit. I decided in the beginning to do it playing straight bets.
So, I will do the same here again.
I have week days graded by their characteristics and the action. Mondays are NBA plays with underdog's having the clear edge. MNF is a public fade and usually under day. Not always. But most will do.
Tuesdays are a regular handicapping day in NBA as is Wednesday and Thursday is a totally different story. NBA has usually 3 games offered on that day and fading the public is a root from which I develop my handicapping. It is usually Under day as well as Underdog day mostly. Fridays are back to normal handicapping day and Saturday has usually College Football (not anymore) and NBA action that Unders and Underdogs have to be looked at as a root.
Sunday is the best days as NFL kicks in and some NBA plays as well always made me a profit.
So, the first thing I do is eliminating the games I don't touch. I do that after checking the matchups on Covers, read the previews, interviews, look at the notes I took in past games of the teams and checking ATS columns. If Totals play attracts my attention - I check on the officials to see if there are any trends holding (MLB and NBA). I mark the opening lines and never look back at the games I did not like in the beginning (call it a gut feeling if you want). For an example: I didn't like any plays today in NBA. Any! Not the totals nor the spreads. I did lean on Under in College Football, but after the line dropped 3 points - I decided to stay away. Days that I don't like any plays happen once in a while and that's no big deal for me as I try not to be impulsive gambler but the one who is playing the games he believes in them without a doubt. Smallest of the doubts - I'm out. If you want to make the money on a permanent bases in sports handicapping - that is the only way. Again - the bet you didn't lose is as good as the bet you won.
So, here we are on Saturday with NBA, NFL and College Football (I'm ignoring NCAAB at this stage) at the hand. First of all about yesterday and the leans. I am never sorry about having a successful lean and not playing it like yesterday. I use it as a kind of a thermometer. After having few successful leans - I might turn the next ones in to picks if the methodology I picked my leans is consistent and working. The Under on UCF - Ball State game was a result of checking past Bowl games at this stage and discovering that the Under was prevailing in most, combined with the Line moving down while the public supportive of Over, looking at the past results this season of participants when playing at the similar contests - those were all the reasons for my lean Under. As I already said yesterday - 3 points moving down made me little uncomfortable knowing that 62 points will get me a loss. It was not far from that but kept at 55. I'm happy the lean was good and not sorry at all I didn't surrender the juice to get it back to possible 62.5. Next time if the same opportunity arises, I will use notes taken from this game.
And now to today's card:
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So, here we are on Saturday with NBA, NFL and College Football (I'm ignoring NCAAB at this stage) at the hand. First of all about yesterday and the leans. I am never sorry about having a successful lean and not playing it like yesterday. I use it as a kind of a thermometer. After having few successful leans - I might turn the next ones in to picks if the methodology I picked my leans is consistent and working. The Under on UCF - Ball State game was a result of checking past Bowl games at this stage and discovering that the Under was prevailing in most, combined with the Line moving down while the public supportive of Over, looking at the past results this season of participants when playing at the similar contests - those were all the reasons for my lean Under. As I already said yesterday - 3 points moving down made me little uncomfortable knowing that 62 points will get me a loss. It was not far from that but kept at 55. I'm happy the lean was good and not sorry at all I didn't surrender the juice to get it back to possible 62.5. Next time if the same opportunity arises, I will use notes taken from this game.
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