The NFL is a minefield, especially during the dog days of the season. In addition to the usual variance caused by bad officiating, costly turnovers, boneheaded coaching and the rest you have to worry about undisclosed injuries, team turmoil, tanking, fatigue, tricky scheduling spots, lack of motivation, preparedness, etc.
To counteract all that, which isn’t easy, one must find teams that are likely to be the most focused, motivated, and prepared for the task at hand facing opponents who are, for one reason or another, less motivated, less focused or less prepared than they are. The teams that fit these criteria this week are the Cardinals, facing the Viking, and the Rams facing the Saints.
The Cardinals were in a bad scheduling spot last week as I mentioned in my writeup backing Seattle. They were on a 4 game win streak coming off a bye. Their dd victories at home were not against impressive teams (something they’d never admit to themselves) and their opponent, the Seahawks, were trying to not only end a 4 game losing streak at home but also get back in the division race by beating the team ahead of them.
This week, after a humbling loss, the Cardinals will be much more focused and desperate, knowing they squandered a great opportunity last week and are taking on a very good Vikings team on the road this week. Speaking of the Vikings, they are in s huge letdown spot. Winners of three straight games on the road, with the last one in OT, the conquering heroes finally come home to a well earned and much needed home stand. In the comforts of their homes, surrounded by family and friends during Thanksgiving, they finally get to relax and kick off their shoes knowing they are likely to play even better at home than they did in winning three straight on the road. This is good. This is exactly what we want them to think! This is how teams get complacent, and this is why you fade them.
The play: Cardinals +3.5 for 2.5 units
The next game involves our old friends the Rams, who were humiliated yet again on national TV by a superior Eagles team. Some teams might give up on a season after the beating they took, but the Rams are built differently. From their SB coach to their SB QB, the Rams have a mental toughness to them that prevents them from letting go of the rope. They are still in the hunt for the division despite the loss, and with the daunting schedule ahead, this becomes an all-in, throw in the kitchen sink type of game for a prideful coach and team wanting to bounce back from an ugly loss.
Played indoors and on a fast track, the Rams will show up come Sunday. Weather will not be a factor for Stafford and company, unlike the game in NE, and that’s a good thing. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off two straight victories, after firing their coach, and a bye week. They and their interim coach can’t help but be feeling good about themselves and their chances after beating the division leading .500 Falcons team and destroying the cellar dwelling Browns. Once again, complacency and over-confidence looms, so you fade.
The play: Rams -2.5 for 2.5 units
The title of the post honors old posters on covers (with their respective betting angles) who are no longer around. 
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