HUGE MNF PLAY

@insatiable

In any case, 25-14-1 is very impressive. I've been tailing quite a few with and without the -120. I think both times I didn't take the hook, I need the hook. So there's that.

All that matters is that you hit enough games with the hook to cover the extra premiums in the games you lose. That's math. 

@starguide

 in your example, i said the exact same thing you are saying....is the guy 10-20 playing massive dogs....or is he 10-20 playing -110 lines but one of his wins was a 20-unit wager....

and for SI he can buy from +2.5 to +3.0 for 10 cents from what i am gathering...so thats what im referring too

if your book is charging 25-35 cents for a 0.5 or 1.0 than it isnt a smart option IMO

@starguide

 yes SI and I4P are having 2 of the best NFL seasons to date so far

1 guy went on a heater last year 1st half but gave most of it back....might have been tyler1234 or pineapplexpress

NO SIDE PLAY TONIGHT

I like the under so much that I'd rather just sit back and cheer for a boring slow pace game. I'm seeing a 20-17/23-16 kind of game.

Good luck to everyone!

Let's all cash!

To give him benefit of doubt, maybe he bet earlier when line was more favorable?

Yeah NO book charges 10 cents for getting on/off of 3. EVERY legit book charges 25c-35c. But again, if you turn enough losses into pushes, and enough pushes into wins, it's worth it.

"The vig only matters if you lose." :)

Yep!

@starguide

 yes but buying and paying 20-35 cents obviously changes your required win rate on said bet...which would change the dynamics of the play being +EV or not anymore

for easy numbers

-110 or 1.91 line means you need to win this bet 52.4% of the time to be profitable

-120 or 1.833 line means you need to win this bet 54.55% of the time to be profitable

-130 or 1.77 line means you need to win this bet 56.55% of the time to be profitable

this would go into your +ev calcs

@dubz4dummyz

Based on that, you basically have to turn a push into a win about 4% of the time at -130, which he's been able to accomplish (2 wins out of 40 bets). As long as he can continue to do that ...

Laid off as my guy had it at 49… looks good SI…. 

Most books I looked at had it 51 about 3 hours before game time. They all dropped to 49-49.5 by game time. Maybe due to SI effect ... LOL ... I know I bet more than usual on this game due to SI.

@starguide

 No no no, they heard Davidsss  took the under 

Penalty every other play… no way to sustain a drive.    Good pic SI.  Fiddle sticks on me.  

Under 51 was the best bet on the board today. Great call Sports, thank you for posting!!

All I know is based on this SI thread, I bet 6 units, and then immediately the line dropped from 51 to 50.5. So obviously *I* had something to do with it, which means SI had something to do with it. 

Under never in doubt.  Good call.

20-17 Final...did you find Biffs Sports Almanac??

SI keep being You.. you're having a successful campaign..

VAN , stay above this debate, We all know he loves buying points in Certain situations which makes total sense 

no juice is charged when I win...only when u lose.

com'on guys, focus on the WIN...

CONGRATS on the win ....thx post winner