How come you guys won't mention when the "LINE MOVEMENT" don't work. I have more games. You want them? Like I always said. Line movements means NOTHING. I can show you where it works, and then when it doesn't work. It works both ways. Where are the comments about the games I mentioned above?
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How come you guys won't mention when the "LINE MOVEMENT" don't work. I have more games. You want them? Like I always said. Line movements means NOTHING. I can show you where it works, and then when it doesn't work. It works both ways. Where are the comments about the games I mentioned above?
books don't move the lines for no reason. they would be exposed to be middled. for instance. early in the week kc was +2.5. this morn they were -2.5. if it is a 1 or 2 pt game either way, the books would get crushed on the middle. sharps monitor the lines and pick their entry point. imo, the sharps pounded kc last night and this morn which pushed kc into the fav. public is probably buying indi now and settling the line to a pick em.
like i said, vegas just got crushed!!!!!!! kc money at +2.5, indi money at +2.5. you know they got middled in the a$$
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Quote Originally Posted by wildcat95:
books don't move the lines for no reason. they would be exposed to be middled. for instance. early in the week kc was +2.5. this morn they were -2.5. if it is a 1 or 2 pt game either way, the books would get crushed on the middle. sharps monitor the lines and pick their entry point. imo, the sharps pounded kc last night and this morn which pushed kc into the fav. public is probably buying indi now and settling the line to a pick em.
like i said, vegas just got crushed!!!!!!! kc money at +2.5, indi money at +2.5. you know they got middled in the a$$
From my experience in betting line movement means a lot.
Off course it is sport and you can expect any outcome but when i see line dropping and considering my self to bet on it it is one good sign to take bet...of course while there is till some value.
I am not covering NFL at all but probably all value was on Chiefs as many expecting coin toss game and Chiefs were dog.
I will go for under points as when it comes to playoffs/knockout faze in many sports defence win games.
Line movement does mean a lot!!..go with the movement.
You say GO WITH LINE MOVEMENT. Really?? Well I made a Where are the Line Movement guys at? Read it.
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Quote Originally Posted by bettingaddict:
From my experience in betting line movement means a lot.
Off course it is sport and you can expect any outcome but when i see line dropping and considering my self to bet on it it is one good sign to take bet...of course while there is till some value.
I am not covering NFL at all but probably all value was on Chiefs as many expecting coin toss game and Chiefs were dog.
I will go for under points as when it comes to playoffs/knockout faze in many sports defence win games.
Line movement does mean a lot!!..go with the movement.
You say GO WITH LINE MOVEMENT. Really?? Well I made a Where are the Line Movement guys at? Read it.
IMO 98 percent of the time, line movement is adjusting to where the heavy money is coming in. I am a believer that books want 50-50 action on MOST games when its all said and done. In the NFL, there is usually a game or two where its obvious the 50-50 thing isn't in effect though and those are usually games where a superior team is on the road laying say 4 to a so-so team. Those are the games where seemingly everybody is on that road chalk -4 and the line still trickles
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IMO 98 percent of the time, line movement is adjusting to where the heavy money is coming in. I am a believer that books want 50-50 action on MOST games when its all said and done. In the NFL, there is usually a game or two where its obvious the 50-50 thing isn't in effect though and those are usually games where a superior team is on the road laying say 4 to a so-so team. Those are the games where seemingly everybody is on that road chalk -4 and the line still trickles
The line still trickles down to 3.5 or 3. These are the few games I don't believe books are looking for that 50/50 split, but I do believe the brains that come up with the lines look at things and sort of think THATS the game where there's a good chance of a upset with the home dog and they keep the line small even though 70-80% of the money is on the road favorite. Basically a gamble of sorts by the house.
Where people go wrong though is believing line movement will give them a winner on any given play. Even the best handicapper on the planet will be wrong 40-45 percent of the time so whether its Vegas brains that "play" with the line, a big tout with a large clientele releasing a play and moving the lines(anyone remember Dr Bob?), or WHOEVER, line movement will never guarantee a winner.
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....got cut off.
The line still trickles down to 3.5 or 3. These are the few games I don't believe books are looking for that 50/50 split, but I do believe the brains that come up with the lines look at things and sort of think THATS the game where there's a good chance of a upset with the home dog and they keep the line small even though 70-80% of the money is on the road favorite. Basically a gamble of sorts by the house.
Where people go wrong though is believing line movement will give them a winner on any given play. Even the best handicapper on the planet will be wrong 40-45 percent of the time so whether its Vegas brains that "play" with the line, a big tout with a large clientele releasing a play and moving the lines(anyone remember Dr Bob?), or WHOEVER, line movement will never guarantee a winner.
People are mistaken thinking ANY shenanigans by the books when lines are moving really mean something at the end of the day.
I say this all the time. If the almighty Vegas knows something we common bettors don't know, why can I and I'm sure MANY other experienced bettors guess the lines almost to the T for an entire Sunday card following the games the prior Sunday? How come I can get the best line in a game 75-80% of the time? Its just experience. There's no conspiracy. There's no magical guy in a Vegas T-shirt with a crystal ball that knows the outcome. Lines are set, bets come in from both sharp and square, things get adjusted in what "Vegas" thinks is their best interest, and in the end, the swarm of unintelligent bettors are gonna take their beating, a small amount of folk are gonna make a profit by capping good, getting the best line, and having discipline, while the soul searchers are gonna overthink things, and look for every conspiracy angle, every get rich quick scheme, every fix angle, every fade, every "system" they can get their hands on instead of picking winners and managing their money wisely.
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People are mistaken thinking ANY shenanigans by the books when lines are moving really mean something at the end of the day.
I say this all the time. If the almighty Vegas knows something we common bettors don't know, why can I and I'm sure MANY other experienced bettors guess the lines almost to the T for an entire Sunday card following the games the prior Sunday? How come I can get the best line in a game 75-80% of the time? Its just experience. There's no conspiracy. There's no magical guy in a Vegas T-shirt with a crystal ball that knows the outcome. Lines are set, bets come in from both sharp and square, things get adjusted in what "Vegas" thinks is their best interest, and in the end, the swarm of unintelligent bettors are gonna take their beating, a small amount of folk are gonna make a profit by capping good, getting the best line, and having discipline, while the soul searchers are gonna overthink things, and look for every conspiracy angle, every get rich quick scheme, every fix angle, every fade, every "system" they can get their hands on instead of picking winners and managing their money wisely.
Budweiser, what do you think the overall winning % is for a great capper longterm? By long term, I'll say NFL bets, on a weekly basis, over 5 years? I couldn't imagine anyone hitting 60 percent consistently. A superb 60 percent season is certainly possible, but over the course of many years?
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Budweiser, what do you think the overall winning % is for a great capper longterm? By long term, I'll say NFL bets, on a weekly basis, over 5 years? I couldn't imagine anyone hitting 60 percent consistently. A superb 60 percent season is certainly possible, but over the course of many years?
Budweiser, what do you think the overall winning % is for a great capper longterm? By long term, I'll say NFL bets, on a weekly basis, over 5 years? I couldn't imagine anyone hitting 60 percent consistently. A superb 60 percent season is certainly possible, but over the course of many years?
I don't know/don't want to guess but there are a lot that hit over 60% imo
but you're right "over the years" i'm talking about the current year for the best of the experienced (wish it was me lol)
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Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
Budweiser, what do you think the overall winning % is for a great capper longterm? By long term, I'll say NFL bets, on a weekly basis, over 5 years? I couldn't imagine anyone hitting 60 percent consistently. A superb 60 percent season is certainly possible, but over the course of many years?
I don't know/don't want to guess but there are a lot that hit over 60% imo
but you're right "over the years" i'm talking about the current year for the best of the experienced (wish it was me lol)
Just my thoughts on things with the last few posts. By no means am I positive that is how things work, but I've been around the game for awhile and that's just how I see it.
This KC game for instance. I hit Indy Monday morning at -2.5. I couldn't believe the line moved the way it did. But lets say that I didnt already lock up my bet....seeing the line move the way it did really BOTHERED some people. To the point where a couple dudes I know actually pulled a switcheroo and bet KC this morning and I don't understand that. If you like Indy, and capped Indy, why wouldn't you be HAPPY the line moved in your favor? To bet a team you don't like because of some line movement you don't truly understand....I don't get it.
As it happened, we ALL were losers in that specific game, but I feel a little better knowing I at least lost my bet on a team that "i" capped and I backed using my ways of coming to a conclusion on a game and i didnt lose to some Mumbo jumbo that I don't even fully grasp.
Idk I'm babbling at this point. I just don't look too much into a part of the capping game(lines moving) that I can't control. I watch it and study so I can get the best line possible but outside of an instance where maybe I kinda lean a team +3 and it drops to +2.5 and I ultimately stay away, line movement never effects my wagers.
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Just my thoughts on things with the last few posts. By no means am I positive that is how things work, but I've been around the game for awhile and that's just how I see it.
This KC game for instance. I hit Indy Monday morning at -2.5. I couldn't believe the line moved the way it did. But lets say that I didnt already lock up my bet....seeing the line move the way it did really BOTHERED some people. To the point where a couple dudes I know actually pulled a switcheroo and bet KC this morning and I don't understand that. If you like Indy, and capped Indy, why wouldn't you be HAPPY the line moved in your favor? To bet a team you don't like because of some line movement you don't truly understand....I don't get it.
As it happened, we ALL were losers in that specific game, but I feel a little better knowing I at least lost my bet on a team that "i" capped and I backed using my ways of coming to a conclusion on a game and i didnt lose to some Mumbo jumbo that I don't even fully grasp.
Idk I'm babbling at this point. I just don't look too much into a part of the capping game(lines moving) that I can't control. I watch it and study so I can get the best line possible but outside of an instance where maybe I kinda lean a team +3 and it drops to +2.5 and I ultimately stay away, line movement never effects my wagers.
Yea Bud 60% in any given season is definitely attainable, but if someone could bang numbers like that EVERY year, he would be a helluva tout with a huge clientele and everyone would know his name. As it is, guys get hot, guys get cold, and are forgotten as quick as they blow up. I mentioned Dr Bob before. Are u familiar with him?
Long story short, I wanna say he went crazy hot in 06-07. Had a giant clientele and he used to release his plays at like 6pm for college every Thursday night. 20 minutes after he released his plays, no joke, lines would move 2-3-4 points on every play he have. I remember a few guys on Covers chipped in and bought his service and at 6pm there would be a swarm of us refreshing his thread so we could see the plays and make our bets before the lines moved on games we liked. It was crazy. But then a couple seasons of 45% and POOF he was gone.
My point is there could be a hot syndicate going right now and THEY moved that KC line. Thing is if there is an outside influence and not just heavy KC money that moved the line in this game, we probably don't and will never know, so IMO why scratch my head and ponder over something I can't control?
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Yea Bud 60% in any given season is definitely attainable, but if someone could bang numbers like that EVERY year, he would be a helluva tout with a huge clientele and everyone would know his name. As it is, guys get hot, guys get cold, and are forgotten as quick as they blow up. I mentioned Dr Bob before. Are u familiar with him?
Long story short, I wanna say he went crazy hot in 06-07. Had a giant clientele and he used to release his plays at like 6pm for college every Thursday night. 20 minutes after he released his plays, no joke, lines would move 2-3-4 points on every play he have. I remember a few guys on Covers chipped in and bought his service and at 6pm there would be a swarm of us refreshing his thread so we could see the plays and make our bets before the lines moved on games we liked. It was crazy. But then a couple seasons of 45% and POOF he was gone.
My point is there could be a hot syndicate going right now and THEY moved that KC line. Thing is if there is an outside influence and not just heavy KC money that moved the line in this game, we probably don't and will never know, so IMO why scratch my head and ponder over something I can't control?
well the idea that they moved the KC line....what for.
that game was anybody's game. what if andrew luck doens't get that fumble for a td, what if alex smith gets a first down near the end of the game and they kick the field goal
some games there are no sharps
no never heard of Dr Bob sorry nice story
it's just my opinion, from the paranoia at some sports books, that somebody out there easily hits over 60% consistenly. this person may have lost before. but if the max is 60% one person hits, there would be a lot less paranoia about losses at the sportsbooks. they're always on the lookout for sharps
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well the idea that they moved the KC line....what for.
that game was anybody's game. what if andrew luck doens't get that fumble for a td, what if alex smith gets a first down near the end of the game and they kick the field goal
some games there are no sharps
no never heard of Dr Bob sorry nice story
it's just my opinion, from the paranoia at some sports books, that somebody out there easily hits over 60% consistenly. this person may have lost before. but if the max is 60% one person hits, there would be a lot less paranoia about losses at the sportsbooks. they're always on the lookout for sharps
from the hoses mouth jay kornegay at the lvh they did allright on the game there were a few VERY LARGE bets places in vegas and offshore that moved the line one place and all the other followed the lvh did lose on halftime as everyone was betting colts no matter what number they put up
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from the hoses mouth jay kornegay at the lvh they did allright on the game there were a few VERY LARGE bets places in vegas and offshore that moved the line one place and all the other followed the lvh did lose on halftime as everyone was betting colts no matter what number they put up
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