All Forums | NFL Betting

I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 11508
Posts: 153
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 1620
Posted: #101
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 4314
Posted: #102
Guys is really this simply the lines moves for reasons such as new news affecting players, injuries, weather, etc...

If none of these are in play then the line is moving because of the draw on one side. ie lots of bets coming in on one side.

It's very similar to the stock market. Just like a stock goes up when more and more people buy into it. It goes down when the market is selling. The line movement is no different. The books are giving you the current market price on that given team at this moment. 

Market (or Public) Perception has much to do with it just like the stock market. 

So obviously given the conditions the market perception is very high on KC lately. 
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2003
Posts: 18451
Posted: #103
LOL such a funny thread. So many crazy insane things said.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2011
Posts: 215
Posted: #104
Books Profit off have a 50/50 split.. 50 percent on one team and 50 percent on the other. The line moves to help get the numbers to just that.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2012
Posts: 1542
Posted: #105
books don't move the lines for no reason.  they would be exposed to be middled.  for instance.  early in the week kc was +2.5.  this morn they were -2.5.  if it is a 1 or 2 pt game either way, the books would get crushed on the middle.  sharps monitor the lines and pick their entry point.  imo, the sharps pounded kc last night and this morn which pushed kc into the fav.  public is probably buying indi now and settling the line to a pick em.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 5526
Posted: #106
Quote Originally Posted by bettingaddict:

From my experience in betting line movement means a lot.
Off course it is sport and you can expect any outcome but when i see line dropping and considering my self to bet on it it is one good sign to take bet...of course while there is till some value.
I am not covering NFL at all but probably all value was on Chiefs as many expecting coin toss game and Chiefs were dog.
I will go for under points as when it comes to playoffs/knockout faze in many sports  defence win games.

Line movement does mean a lot!!..go with the movement.

Yea Stanford 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #107
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
You cussed at me and called me names. Also you want me to LOSE all my wagers. How is that judging someone? Both of those comments is the difference between me and you. You want me to LOSE all my games. Really?
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 7891
Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by EnglandPatriot:

It's not that the line movements mean nothing, it's about how people misread them. Line movements happen for 2 main reasons - highly unbalanced betting and team news. All the team news was already out before the line started moving on this game, which means the line movement is just down to the betting patterns. The betting patterns themselves don't influence the game in any way, so if you're letting other people's betting influence you, you're probably giving too much weight to other people's opinions


 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 7891
Posted: #109
Quote Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:

Guys is really this simply the lines moves for reasons such as new news affecting players, injuries, weather, etc...

If none of these are in play then the line is moving because of the draw on one side. ie lots of bets coming in on one side.

It's very similar to the stock market. Just like a stock goes up when more and more people buy into it. It goes down when the market is selling. The line movement is no different. The books are giving you the current market price on that given team at this moment. 

Market (or Public) Perception has much to do with it just like the stock market. 

So obviously given the conditions the market perception is very high on KC lately. 

 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #110
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
Believe me, I won't lose the "big" one.
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 15755
Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by Frank the Bank:

Over 5000 views and 86 posts later and I still haven't received any information I was potentially looking for. SMH

Only at Covers


Look, we can all agree that the lines move with the money. If you think there are fake line movements and "traps" set up by casinos, you are probably wrong. Most conspiracy theories are wrong.
So the late money is on the Chiefs and the books have moved the line according. The books must view the news on Chiefs D over riding the loss of the OT. 
I personally ( and this is my belief) look at a lot of info on where the public is. All my info points to the public being pretty split on this game. There are a lot of possibilities on why the line moved late to the Chiefs but to me, the most likely possibility is that is where the sharps were and they were hitting the Chefs hard.



Hope it helps.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 7891
Posted: #112
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

You cussed at me and called me names. Also you want me to LOSE all my wagers. How is that judging someone? Both of those comments is the difference between me and you. You want me to LOSE all my games. Really?

I couldn't care less about you or your wagers.  I was joking.  Lighten up.

You told me I was going to heII because of my language, like you are some Sunday School teacher!!  Again, I couldn't care less what you believe, or where you "think" I'm going.  




 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2011
Posts: 7891
Posted: #113
....of course, that doesn't make you any less arrogant.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 4418
Posted: #114

Quote Originally Posted by Illinoisboy2323:

Books Profit off have a 50/50 split.. 50 percent on one team and 50 percent on the other. The line moves to help get the numbers to just that.

Y'know when books make a HUGE profit?  When they get 60/40 action and the 40 side wins.  When they get 50/50 action, and a 50 side wins, then the book makes 5%.  When the 40 side wins, the book wins a whopping 26% (66-40). 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2007
Posts: 2133
Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Crashdavis565:


Look, we can all agree that the lines move with the money. If you think there are fake line movements and "traps" set up by casinos, you are probably wrong. Most conspiracy theories are wrong.
So the late money is on the Chiefs and the books have moved the line according. The books must view the news on Chiefs D over riding the loss of the OT. 
I personally ( and this is my belief) look at a lot of info on where the public is. All my info points to the public being pretty split on this game. There are a lot of possibilities on why the line moved late to the Chiefs but to me, the most likely possibility is that is where the sharps were and they were hitting the Chefs hard.



Hope it helps.

You've got it.

Cheers
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 15755
Posted: #116
and then Charles goes down and the world turns upside down
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 1620
Posted: #117
Quote Originally Posted by kmoney85:

Chiefs

KC: Coaching experience edge, QB experience edge, takeaways edge running game edge.

After a 9-0 start, the last few games of season are irrelevant IMO . They might have rested when Denver sealed up the division. Hali and Houston back is huge. 

REVENGE factor.

Why does everyone think Smith is garbage? He was doing well at SF before he got hurt. 

No 4th quarter HEROICS for Me Luck today. This is the playoffs!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2013
Posts: 4629
Posted: #118
Lots of Smart Money on those Chiefs.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 2596
Posted: #119

Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

So what you're saying is. When a LINE MOVES in a direction OF a team, TO TAKE THAT TEAM? Wow, I didn't realize how EASY gambling was.

In a word.....yes

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 22711
Posted: #120
Now do you understand the line movement????
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:

In a word.....yes

How about the Okie St last night? Or the NE game last weekend. Lines moved those games not in favor of those teams and they LOST. NE started at -10, it ended up NE -7-5. NE won by 14. Same last night with Okie St. Explain that???
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #122
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Now do you understand the line movement????
NO. Why do guys insist on one game. For every one game it worked. I can give you another when it didn't work. You people are only looking at it when it works. No one mentions the other times. Read this real slow. LAST NIGHT, OKLAHOMA ST. Last weekend, NE. Patriots were -10, it ended -7-5. NE blew them out. Why can't you guys comment on those games. Comment, COMMENT ON THOSE GAMES.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #123
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Now do you understand the line movement????
Make your little comment on Okie St and NE games. It didn't work then. So you guys won't make comments on those games.
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by slick15:

Now do you understand the line movement????
USC started at -7, ended up -4.5 USC won by 25. Explain that? I see no one explaining other games.
 
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 5363
Posted: #125
Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:

In a word.....yes

Explain USC, their bowl game, NE last weekend, and Okie St last night. You guys won't comment on those games.
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.