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I don't understand the line movement in Indy/KC

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Prospect
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Posted: #76
So many cappers with so little clue about how bookmaking works, it's hilarious. Bookies don't risk anywhere near the kind of exposure that most people on here seem to think.
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

The reason why I'm taking INDY, well, reasons. In the Playoffs, take the HOT teams. Well, Indy is HOT past 3 games. Better QB. Indy's at home, you have to love that. Better coach.  Andy Reid  is OVERRATED, ask Philly fans. KC started 9-0, then lost 5 of 7. Those are the reasons, in that order.


I see a lot of stupidity and ignorance in this post.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

Excellent. Finally someone who get's it. I may lose, but it has nothing to do with the "line movement". Indy to the bank for my reasons in post #17. And really. Who could argue those reasons???

Whoever over 8 years old could argue those reasons...
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by vegasslim:

seems like the sharps like kc


Most "sharps" don't wait until gameday to make their monster bets!
 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

Yes, I'm right. When Jesus comes back. The people who are living, the Christians that is, will never actually die.


Wait, so this guy states that "only vegas" knows why the line moves.  So that means, you, me, him, we all have no idea.

But he then claims to KNOW for 100% fact what will happen if/when a supposed messiah comes "back" that NO CHRISTIANS will "actually die"??

That's the most hilarious thing I've ever heard!!!

What a moron!!  
 
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Posted: #81
Wow, you people think the line movements mean nothing?? Would love to hear a logical reason why you think this way.
 
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Posted: #82
Im not not touching this one...
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:



Wait, so this guy states that "only vegas" knows why the line moves.  So that means, you, me, him, we all have no idea.

But he then claims to KNOW for 100% fact what will happen if/when a supposed messiah comes "back" that NO CHRISTIANS will "actually die"??

That's the most hilarious thing I've ever heard!!!

What a moron!!  
As a Christian, it's not my job to make you believe me. It's to simply tell you. The rest is up to you.
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan:


I see a lot of stupidity and ignorance in this post.
Explain the stupidity. I'd like to hear.
 
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Posted: #85
Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy:

Wow, you people think the line movements mean nothing?? Would love to hear a logical reason why you think this way.

You say that, but don't include what you think they mean??  Apologies if you already posted that here.

Lines move because of money wagered.  There are other reasons sometimes, such as injuries, weather, or other factors that could affect the outcome, but most times it's just weather.

The guys that have these elaborate theories about tracking lines, and betting against movements in some spots, and talking about traps and all that, whatever.  Those theories have been going around FOR YEARS AND YEARS and I don't see anyone getting rich off them.  Probably just better off flipping coins, as you'd save yourself a ton of time and research.


 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan:


I see a lot of stupidity and ignorance in this post.
I gave reasons. Now it's your turn. Not just remarks. Give reasons. Where is the stupidity.
 
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Posted: #87

Over 5000 views and 86 posts later and I still haven't received any information I was potentially looking for. SMH

Only at Covers

 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy:

Wow, you people think the line movements mean nothing?? Would love to hear a logical reason why you think this way.
That's just it. The know it all's on here CAN'T GIVE US A LOGICAL REASON. Key word is, LOGICAL. These guys think, if a line moves toward a certain team, then the money is on that team and they take them and lose half the time. Because the other half of the time, they win. Because it works both ways. These guys FREAKOUT when the line moves.
 
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Posted: #89
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

As a Christian, it's not my job to make you believe me. It's to simply tell you. The rest is up to you.

It's your job to tell me?  F**king arrogant a*@@hole.
 
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Posted: #90
its the playoffs line moves mean everything
 
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Posted: #91
hey dimndimn......great insight and i respecy what your saying and i understand where your coming from..i need a little help....do you respect the early move today or the late move..thank you kindly, j.r.
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


You say that, but don't include what you think they mean??  Apologies if you already posted that here.

Lines move because of money wagered.  There are other reasons sometimes, such as injuries, weather, or other factors that could affect the outcome, but most times it's just weather.

The guys that have these elaborate theories about tracking lines, and betting against movements in some spots, and talking about traps and all that, whatever.  Those theories have been going around FOR YEARS AND YEARS and I don't see anyone getting rich off them.  Probably just better off flipping coins, as you'd save yourself a ton of time and research.



In the 25 years I've been doing this I have seen a ton of money made by following the money early and fading it late. 
Everyone has their opinion on the subject but I think it is foolish to ignore them. If you aren't paying attention to the numbers you may well be better off flipping coins
 
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Posted: #93
Chiefs

KC: Coaching experience edge, QB experience edge, takeaways edge running game edge.

After a 9-0 start, the last few games of season are irrelevant IMO . They might have rested when Denver sealed up the division. Hali and Houston back is huge. 

REVENGE factor.

Why does everyone think Smith is garbage? He was doing well at SF before he got hurt. 

No 4th quarter HEROICS for Me Luck today. This is the playoffs!
 
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:


It's your job to tell me?  F**king arrogant a*@@hole.
Yes, it is. I can't make you believe me. That choice is up to you.  And according to your language. GL in Hell
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy:


In the 25 years I've been doing this I have seen a ton of money made by following the money early and fading it late. 
Everyone has their opinion on the subject but I think it is foolish to ignore them. If you aren't paying attention to the numbers you may well be better off flipping coins

I pay attention to the numbers, believe me.  But I don't think there is some reverse psychology Vegas conspiracy trying to bait me into taking a side every time a line moves.

 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by dcmc34f:

Yes, it is. I can't make you believe me. That choice is up to you.  And according to your language. GL in Hell

GL with your judging.

I hope you lose all your wagers, especially the "big" one.  


ar-ro-gant:
having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one's own importance or abilities.
 
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Posted: #97

Quote Originally Posted by Coatsy:

Wow, you people think the line movements mean nothing?? Would love to hear a logical reason why you think this way.

It's not that the line movements mean nothing, it's about how people misread them. Line movements happen for 2 main reasons - highly unbalanced betting and team news. All the team news was already out before the line started moving on this game, which means the line movement is just down to the betting patterns. The betting patterns themselves don't influence the game in any way, so if you're letting other people's betting influence you, you're probably giving too much weight to other people's opinions

 
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Posted: #98

Quote Originally Posted by insiders-edge:

Early pros were on the Colts.  Joe Public on KC.  I will roll with the early wiseguys on this on here.  

Totally false. Sharps early in the week were pounding KC money line, knowing the books wouldn't adjust that with all the squares pounding Indy on the spread.  Sharps pounced on KC spread today.

 
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Posted: #99
Good luck with the coin flips.

 
 
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Posted: #100
From my experience in betting line movement means a lot.
Off course it is sport and you can expect any outcome but when i see line dropping and considering my self to bet on it it is one good sign to take bet...of course while there is till some value.
I am not covering NFL at all but probably all value was on Chiefs as many expecting coin toss game and Chiefs were dog.
I will go for under points as when it comes to playoffs/knockout faze in many sports  defence win games.

Line movement does mean a lot!!..go with the movement.
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