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i'm personally going ALL IN

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Posted: #26

Everytime I have gone "all-in" over what I think is a sure-bet, I get screwed big time.

I would take the spread -- it is a safere and better value IMO.

 
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Posted: #27
Buy it to -6.5 @ -140. Risk half for a better payout here "all-in". Meet in the middle man. Everything I see at this point in both camps gives a good feeling here with the Colts at home. Colts, not Bolts. Chokin' Chargers did their playoff norm. Hard to play keep up/ catch up here for the Jets. Especially after their last eight freakin' weeks. Now cross-country To meet up with a focused Peyton Manning. In that Dome. I don't think so. And I didn't say that with the Chargers. Skill set in Indy is tough to cover right now. O line doing their job too. Jets played good enough to win in San Diego. Congrats. But if you watched the same games I did and are running the same probabilities, the likelihood of a repeat performance is... well anyway. Like the Colts -6.5 here.
Jets 13 - Colts 24  final.
 
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Posted: #28
Oh, congrats Brett Farve and, sorry. The better ML is in New Orleans. Spread Minny??? Hmm... 28-31 final. Saints by 3.
 
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Posted: #29
I'm w you on your bet, Insight.  Won't be doing an all in wager when it's -370, but you'll probably be collecting.  I'd be inclined to hedge $2K on Jets +pts so you can't get wiped out.  Plus you could win both bets.

 
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Posted: #30
Think if I popped it to +10.5 @ -190 might be okay with it. And there is that part. Now on to the totals.
 
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Posted: #31
To retract... Jets 10 - Colts 20. Lighter on the lay though.
 
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Posted: #32
Many people here are risk averse and don't understand probability, and so think risking a lot to win a little is a bad move. Obviously they are stupid.   I do think, though, that your 'all-in' move is stupid too, because of the risk of ruin.  Even if you are 100% right in your analysis, 15% happens quite a bit=)  

As far as the bet itself, there is no way Colts win 85% of the time in my analysis.  Look at how many 4th quarter comebacks they needed over so-so teams.  Now granted, Peyton Manning is clutch and he did pull them off, but things don't always work out.  I would estimate Colts win closer to 70% of the time, which makes your bet a loser.  I also think motives like 'revenge' are always bullshit.  I mean come on, these players want to go to a super bowl, isn't that motivation enough for everybody involved?

So in conclusion, I disagree with your bet, but even if you still believe it's a good bet, you should really bet less unless your bankroll (i.e. money set aside for JUST gambling) is a couple hundred thousand dollars.

Think about it this way, even if you have a bet that wins 90% of the time, if you keep betting everything on it, you are guarenteed to go broke.  Be careful.
 
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Posted: #33
 
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Posted: #34

Risking "$13,000" to win "$4,000"

 
Prospect
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Posted: #35
The more I read these posts the better I feel about my New York Jets ml wager. Good luck to colt supporters on Sunday.   Remember the colt/steeler game in 06?, this will be similar.
 
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Posted: #36

Tease the colts and the under....Indy -1.5 and 46.5

Jets are not the 6th ranked steelers from a few years back and they are not the cardinals from last season.

They will not win this game. I like his bet but i'm not that heavy of a bettor...I would lay about $975 to win $300, my book is -325 for the colts.

BOL 

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Skubishack:

With you dumping that much on a -340 ML, you had better pray this is NOT on of the 15 games that the Colts would lose base on your guesstimation.

Also, if you are so very adamant, so extremely confident, so damn positively sure, then I ask you ONE Simple Question......

Why the ML and not the line???

Because somewhere in the back of your mind, despite all the hoopla talk, you are too nervous about the game and don't trust your own buildup. Whenever I see someone taking the BIG ML and talking so very confident I know they are taking the ML because they are too scared to take the line.

Personaly I think the Colts will win, but I also thought the Chargers would win. Good Luck with that pile, hope it don't turn into a puddle for you.

As a fan(not to jinx you) I am rooting for the Jets just because, so you most likely will win.

I'm not going to argue with people who don't understand ML bets. I will say this though. The line is at 7.5 right now. I play the Colts and they are up 14 with 3 minutes left. Why in the world am I going to allow a backdoork crush me to the ground? Think about it and come back with your answer

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

The Jets are a fuckin joke in reality. That team will look so dumb all game next week just like they did in the first half before the Chargers choked with bullshit turnovers. Easiest play ive ever seen and fuck a trap and vegas bullshit. This is a true life lock

 

I could not have said it any better.

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by SuperiorInsight:

I'm not going to argue with people who don't understand ML bets. I will say this though. The line is at 7.5 right now. I play the Colts and they are up 14 with 3 minutes left. Why in the world am I going to allow a backdoork crush me to the ground? Think about it and come back with your answer



Don't try to explain yourself to homer Jets fans. We will get the last laugh on Sunday.
 
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Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by Serb89:



Don't try to explain yourself to homer Jets fans. We will get the last laugh on Sunday.

your absolutly right. BOL

 
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Posted: #41
 
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Posted: #42
I'd say a 70% probability of IN winning straight up is a pretty sign. edge for his ML wager. Notwithstanding it is within his risk/reward parameters. This thing is gonna repeat the Cowboy debacle.  Jets had 262 net yds. offense;53 on that one run.  SD should have won the game.  IN will dominate this...and shut fat boy up.
 
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Posted: #43
Oh boy, anyone remember when the Giants played the undefeated Pats in the Superbowl?  And no one gave the Giants any shot of winning?  Well, anyone who took the Pats ML in that game (and there were a few) were crushed.  That is a bad bet sir, believe me.  If you think the Colts win, then they will most likely also cover the spread.  Do yourself a favor, risk a heck of a lot less and take the Colts and buy the hook to -7.  You will thank me later.
 
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Posted: #44
ou should just park 5K on jets +7.5 and save yourself the hassle.
 
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Posted: #45
I can't see risking 13,600 to win 4000 as good ever!
 
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Posted: #46

Quote Originally Posted by Serb89:



Don't try to explain yourself to homer Jets fans. We will get the last laugh on Sunday.

pot meet kettle

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by SuperiorInsight:

Colts ML (-340) Risking 13,600 to win 4,000





That is an awful awful awful play...If you don't think the Colts are going to cover put 4k on the Jets + 7 1/2...  Its the playoffs very rarely do you need the spread,   Jets ML  Colts - 7  or jets + 7 1/2...Colts ML is absolutely absurd
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by 3rd_and_Long:

Oh great, the forum likes the Colts for the 1st time ever. 

 

Congrats Jets, good luck in the Super Bowl.



its a lock 3rd. according to half the forum, peyton and sanchez will be playing head to head...as will the offenses as well
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by squareashell:

Many people here are risk averse and don't understand probability, and so think risking a lot to win a little is a bad move. Obviously they are stupid.   I do think, though, that your 'all-in' move is stupid too, because of the risk of ruin.  Even if you are 100% right in your analysis, 15% happens quite a bit=)  

As far as the bet itself, there is no way Colts win 85% of the time in my analysis.  Look at how many 4th quarter comebacks they needed over so-so teams.  Now granted, Peyton Manning is clutch and he did pull them off, but things don't always work out.  I would estimate Colts win closer to 70% of the time, which makes your bet a loser.  I also think motives like 'revenge' are always bullshit.  I mean come on, these players want to go to a super bowl, isn't that motivation enough for everybody involved?

So in conclusion, I disagree with your bet, but even if you still believe it's a good bet, you should really bet less unless your bankroll (i.e. money set aside for JUST gambling) is a couple hundred thousand dollars.

Think about it this way, even if you have a bet that wins 90% of the time, if you keep betting everything on it, you are guarenteed to go broke.  Be careful.
Your write-up is excellent and I hope more people read it. Hope you create some threads.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Kazual12:

I can't see risking 13,600 to win 4000 as good ever!

I agree, if you are afraid to lay a TD then you should tease or just play the Jets . 
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