Indigo week 2 angles/picks

9-5 for the season +5.05 units with the Jets pending on MNF....I went 2-3 in the NFL.

Week 3 in college a lot of my underdog angles don't work for whatever reason....we will take some ugly favorites, and possibly a limited amount of underdogs.

The CFL has been good for me...I placed a wager on the Edmonton Elks this week at 50-1 to win the Grey Cup...they are presently a half game out of a playoff spot with 5 games to go in their season.

Angles:

1)  An NFL favorite in weeks 2 or 3 that was outyarded by over 50 yards their previous game that will either be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite.....60-116-7 ATS (-2.8), 105-77 straight up....VERSUS Jacksonville, Kansas City and Indianapolis

2)  A NFL away dog in week two of 4 or more points that lost at home their previous game and the calculated line is greater than the Vegas line....18-5 ATS (+3.7), 10-13 straight up...ON Bengals

3)  A NFL road team where the line is between -6 and 6 points that lost at home their previous game, who will either be greater than a three point favorite their next game or their present opponent (the home favorite) will be at greater than a 3 point dog.....30-12-3 ATS (+4.7), 28-17 straight up.....ON Browns, Bengals, Giants   

4)  A NCAA football home favorite of less than 14 points in September that rushed for less than 100 yards in each of their last two games....38-24 ATS, 48-16 straight up...this moves to 27-15 ATS if this a non-con matchup....ON Houston, Florida State.....

  a)  on the other hand if a team has rushed for less 100 yards their last two games is an away favorite they've been only 2-6 ATS....VERSUS Colorado

5)  A NCAA away favorite of less than 14 points in week 3 with a -80 yards/game rushing differential 8-15 ATS, 15-7-1 o/u...VERSUS Colorado, Western Kentucky

6)  A NCAA home favorite of less than 14 points with a +80 yards/game rushing differential in game 3/week 3....40-62-1 ATS (-2.5)...VERSUS Kansas, Kansas State...if they will be an underdog their next game this moves to 16-30 ATS (-4.2)...VERSUS Jayhawks

Plays:

1)  Chargers -4'...................1 unit

2)  Bengals +6....................1 unit

3)  Houston (NCAA) -5.........1/2 unit

4)  Florida State -5.............1/2 unit

5)  UNLV +7.....................1/2 unit

7)  A week 2 NFL home favorite that won by more than 11 points their first game as an underdog.....6-16-1 ATS (-4.5), 12-11 straight up....VERSUS Cowboys

Adding more plays:

6)  Oregon State +14......1/2 unit....both Oregon State and Washington State's Super Bowl will come against their in-state rivals this weekend, before they play the rest of their non-nondescript rest of their schedules....meanwhile Washington and Oregon have their first Big Ten games next weekend.

7)  Washington State +4...1/2 unit

8)  Tulane +13'..........1/2 unit ..............1/2 unit....Tulane has two easy opponents on deck while Oklahoma's huge showdown with Tennessee is the following week.

9)  Tulsa +20'............1/2 unit...........regional rivalry which will be a bigger deal for Tulsa than it will be for Oky State...Oky State has two huge conference games, with higher ranked opponents the following two weeks.

10) Central Michigan +17'.....1/2 unit...BIG teams like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa with their ground and pound philosophy often struggle to cover bigger numbers...the Big Ten schedule starts the following week.

11) Toronto Argonauts +4'...2 units....A non-divisional away dog that will be favored their next game is 104-73-1 ATS in the CFL.....43-13 (+6.77) on Friday nights, which is always the best night to play away underdogs in the CFL....if that away dog will be favored by more than a field goal this moves to 31-7 ATS, as Toronto has Hamilton, the team with the worst record in the CFL on deck.

@Indigo999

 Bol this week

7)  A NFL home dog in week two that missed the playoffs last season that lost by over 10 points last week, playing a team that rushed for over 150 yards in winning their previous game......3-12-1 ATS (-7.2), 2-14 straight up (-11.5).....VERSUS Panthers

If this was a non-divisional matchup those teams have gone 0-5 ATS (-10.1), 0-5 straight up (-15.0)

Query text....game number = 2 and HD and tpS(playoffs)=0 and p:L and p:margin<-10 and op:RY>150 and op:W

8)  A NFL week two home team with a line between -7 and 7 points that won between 4, 5 ot 6 games the previous season that lost away last week playing a team that lost away....3-10-1 ATS (-4.2), 3-11 straight up (-3.4)....VERSUS Cardinals

Murray throughout his career has been great as an away dog, and not good at home mirroring the results of the other running, mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Mahomes, etc.

9)  NFL teams off an overtime loss in September/October have gone 40-29 ATS (+2.8) on the road the following game, including 15-4 ATS  (+7.5), in divisional games, 15-4 straight up (+6.5)..

Adding....

Play:

12)  Rams +1.....1 unit

DELETING my Bengals +6 play.........typically early season home losers that go on the road their next game are very good plays ....with the exception being if they gained less than 250 yards on offense in that home loss, which all three of our home losers accomplished this week in the NYG, Bengals and Browns,....typically we'd be very interested in them, but not when their offense was shut down the week before.

angles cont.

9)  A week three NCAA dog between 2 and 10 points whose line this week is greater than 21 points more than their previous game's line....we stipulate that this is both teams' game 3 and that our dog does not have two more wins than their present opponent (as is the case with Memphis this week)....61-31-1 ATS (+2.7), 36-57 straight up (-3.1).....ON Rice, North Texas, UNLV, Florida, Colorado State (and Arizona who is filtered out for being a public dog).

Query text.....D and line - p:line > 21 and game number = 3 and o:game number=3 and 2<line<10 and week=3 and t:wins-o:wins<2

Plays (bets) this week:

1)  LA Chargers -4'...............1 unit

2)  Houston (NCAA) -5.........1/2 unit

3)  Florida State -5..............1/2 unit

4)  Washington State +4.....1/2 unit

5)  Central Michigan +17'....1/2 unit

6)  Toronto +4' (CFL)..........2 units

7)  Oregon State...1/2 unit deleted

8)  UNLV...1/2 unit deleted

9)  Rams +1..................1 unit

10) Tulsa ....deleted

Plays (bets) this week:

1)  LA Chargers -4'...............1 unit

2)  Houston (NCAA) -5.........1/2 unit

3)  Florida State -5..............1/2 unit

4)  Washington State +4.....1/2 unit

5)  Central Michigan +17'....1/2 unit

6)  Toronto +4' (CFL)..........2 units

7)  Oregon State...1/2 unit deleted

8)  UNLV...1/2 unit deleted

9)  Rams +1..................1 unit

10) Tulsa ....1/2 unit deleted

11)  NYJ +4 MNF......1 unit

12)  Edmonton Elks +54/1 to win Grey Cup, .2 unit (they are now down to 28/1

13)  Tulane +...1/2 unit deleted

14)  Bengals +6 deleted

10)  A week two NFL home favorite who threw for at least 50 yards less than their last week opponent did.....33-65-2 ATS (-3.7), 55-45 straight up (+1.7)....VERSUS Jaguars, Cardinals

Query text.....week = 2 and p:passing yards - po:passing yards < -50 and HF

@Indigo999

Edmonton Elks is a great bet to win it all! Hottest team in the CFL!! 

BOL tonight! 

Agreed..........market has not caught up to them yet, and if Toronto loses at BC this week that will put them at 6-7, meaning there could be four teams from the West that qualify for the playoffs...Toronto plays the top four teams in the league the rest of the season, including the Elks the last weekend at Edmonton.

Edmonton smartly said that Ford will be the starting quarterback starting this week for the foreseeable future....very good move.

Hey buddy,

week=2 and season>2020 and p:L and D and A and total<50  (8-0) OV up the total and better

week=2 and p:AW and p:DIV and F and season>2002 and total<46 and line>=-7 and H  (Texans)

week = 2 and p:RY>op:RY and D and A and season>2013 and line<11.5 and total<48 and n:H and line<7  (Saints)

week=2 and DIV and H and op:W and p:W and season>2015  (Mia-Buf) UN

11)  A home dog not off a bye before week 12 who won on the road as away dog last week, playing a team that won as a home favorite...we stipulate that our home dog's line was bigger than +6 last week and their opponent's line was stronger than -3.....12-0-1 ATS (+8.2), 10-3 straight up (+4.5), 9-4 o/u (0.8).....ON Patriots

Query text......p:ADW and HD and op:HFW and line<7 and p:line>6 and op:line<-3 and week<12 and rest<13

12)  A home dog off an away  win in weeks 2-5 playing an opponent of a home win ....51-19-1 ATS (+6.0), 41-30 ATS (+2.1).....ON Vikings, Patriots

Query text.....week < 6 and p:AW and op:HW and HD

Good luck Indigo.  

@Indigo999

 Good info!  I was leaning Pats anyway.  Here's a question for you: what do you have on a road fav, on the second leg of back to back road trips, that won the first game outright as a dog, and is playing two times zones away against a home team that lost SU on the road the week before?  I'm liking Denver here.  Got any ammo to back that up?

I have 22-30 ATS (-3.1), 27-25 (+1.1) for the road favorite, though 5-3 ATS in September WITHOUT the time zone parameters.

Killersports has changed the wording for querying times zone, and I don't know what that is.....you can copy and paste the query text into the query box at killersports and look for the time zone stipulation that is applicable to your request.

Query text....p:ADW and AF and not DIV and op:AL and month

@Indigo999

 Thank you sir!  BOL

GL !!!!

Here is an interesting NFL angle and would fit with the esoteric idea that time is not linear.....

13)  In weeks 1,2 or 3 excluding away favorites, a team that will be favored by 3 or more points their next game, playing a team that won't be favored by three or more points....Eagles (this one is questionable as their lookahead line -3.5 at NO next week),.........297-176-10 ATS, 62.8% (+4.0)

Breaking this down into individual categories....

As....

  a)  home favorites....133-91-5 ATS....Chiefs, Eagles

  b)  away dogs..........139-81-4 ATS.....Raiders, Browns, Bengals, Texans, Bills (though Thursday night dogs in this situation haven't performed well)

  c)  home dogs..........11-2-1......no indicated team

Query text....week < 4 and n:line <= -3 and not AF and on:line > -3  and AD, HF, HD

If we stipulate that our indicated team will be favored by 3 or more their next game and their present opponent will be an underdog, this moves to 244-143-9, 64.7%....Bengals, Eagles, Texans, Browns, Raiders

https://www.rotowire.com/betting/nfl/odds/week-3

Delete Chiefs and Bengals from the list of possible plays from the post above as both of them will be favored by more than 3 points next week.

Indigo this works on the dog

p:A and p:ATSW and and p:D and time zone=E and C and AF and o:time zone=M and op:ATSW   (1-2) ats

p:A and p:ATSW and and p:D and C and AF and o:time zone=M and op:ATSW  (1-4) ats

14)  In weeks 2 or 3, a home team that gave up greater than 150 yards rushing their previous game, playing a team that rushed for greater than 150 yards their last game.....4-22 ATS (-6.7), 8-18 straight up (-7.5)......VERSUS Panthers

In the game in question they give up on average 111 yards on the ground, but average 2.2 turnovers to the visiting team's 1 turnover.