Indigo week 3 discussion

I looked into this and weeks 2 or 3 a home favorite loser of greater than 10 points has gone 7-1 ATS, 5-3 ATS since 2015.....Dolphins, and home dog losers of greater than 10 points have gone 10-2 ATS, 5-7 SU in weeks 2/3 since 2015.....Panthers

Sunday or Thursday away dogs of less than 7 points have gone 239-152-9 (61.1%) before week 9 since 2015.....

m)  An away dog of less than 7 points that lost by more than 10 points their previous game in weeks 2/3  has gone 23-3 ATS (+7.1), 16-10 straight up (+2.6) since 2015.....ON Panthers, Dolphins

Query text..........line<7 and season>2015 and week<9 and AD and p:L and p:margin<-10 and week<4

Getting back to the Saints game.....

n)  A home team in week 3 that scored 30 points in each of their first two games, winning both of them....16-7 ATS, 21-2 straight up (+15.0), if their opponent is off a loss this moves to 8-4 ATS (+7.7), 12-0 straight up (+20.0).....ON Saints, Bills

Query text.....H and p:points>30 and pp:points>30 and week=3 and t:wins=2 and op:L

The Rams were missing.....home dogs have gone 22-14 ATS and away dogs have gone 65-39-1 ATS

Rams' two best receivers are out for multiple weeks and their offensive line is like a MASH unit and they'll be playing the pissed off 49ers who except for the little matter of an NFC championship game has had their way with the Rams....I think the 49ers steamroller them

e)  A NFL underdog week three that has not covered either of their first two games and also has not won both of their games...87-52-1 ATS, 62.6% (+2.6)....this coverage rate increases to 64% if the line is less than 7 points......ON Dolphins, Panthers, Giants, Rams

p:ATSL and pp:ATSL and D and week=3 and site

o)  A week 3 underdog whose next week line is at more than 3 points stronger than their present opponent's next week line....81-39-3 ATS (+5.6), 67.5%, 67-55 SU (+1.6)....ON Cowboys, Dolphins

Cowboys are 7 point favorites over NYG and the Ravens are 1 point favorites over Buffalo.

Dolphins are 1.5 favorites over Tennessee and Seattle is 4.5 point dogs at Detroit.

@Indigo999

 Anything On the Chiefs/Falcons Game........I was hoping Falcons lost vs Eagles....now line has moved

towards Atlanta.....

Here's something to chew on for Thurs night...  Before week 16, any dog on 3 days rest off an overtime game in which they scored 17+ points:

rest=3 and p:overtime=1 and D and week<16 and p:points>16

0-9 ats...against NE+6

Play on:  Jets-6

@Indigo999

out of these two teams, the regression off the 30+ point games would sit more on the Saints, right?  Saints did allow Dallas 19 but only allowed a FG in the 2ndH.  complete domination in two weeks straight.  N.O. has not had any threats yet, only allowed a 65 yd TD and a 3 yd fumble for TD

the Bills were in an early hole game 1 and since have scored 8 TDs and 2 FGs, and before the hit Tua already had 3 INTs and it was well into the 3rdQ.  Out of these two teams, the Bills have to be the better survivor pick.  thanks I9 

Nice one!

A NFL home dog playing off an away dog win, versus a team that is off a home win has gone 60-28-3 ATS (+4.5), 68.2% before week 11....this moves to 16-10 ATS if our home dog prior to its away dog win lost at home.

p:ADW and HD and op:HW and week<11 

p:ADW and HD and op:HW and week<11 and pp:HL

Home dogs playing a team that played in 3 or 4 playoff games the season before, who won at home their previous game have gone 48-32 ATS, 40-21-2 ATS versus a non-divisional opponent....8-1 ATS, 7-2 straight up if the home dog won their  last game as a away dog.

HD and op:HW and week<11 and opS(playoffs) >2 and not DIV

This one looks pretty good!

Only issue is that Andy Reid is about the best coach in history against the spread in road games.

A and D and p:overtime>0 and p:L and playoffs=0 and division=AFC East  on Pat's 63%

A and D and p:overtime>0 and p:L and playoffs=0 and division

Nice Hoody....

Only issue  for me is that teams off a three point loss at home haven't done well on Thursdays.

p:HL and AD and division = o:division and p:margin=-3 and day

I'm playing these in the CFL.....CFL dogs of less than 7 who have the lesser winning percentage compared to their present opponent have gone 11-3 ATS the last couple of months...we'll bet this to continue this week.

Plays:

1)  CFL Hamilton +6' -105.....1 unit....Hamilton is playing better than any team in the Eastern Division right now after being terrible for the first 8 or so weeks of the season...would not surprise me if they won straight up

2)  CFL Calgary +2', -105......1 unit.....bought out and then re-bought in a the less advantagous price for one instead of two units...I like the Stampeders to win straight up....however Saskatchewan seems to make every game come down to the last minute where they eventually lose a very close game....two and a half points is bigger than one might imagine in the CFL, especially when the Riders are playing.

3)  CFL Ottawa +125, 1 unit.........I had the Redblacks as 3 point favorites

4)  CFL Edmonton +3', 2 units......Elks have been bet down below +3....I had them a -3ish favorite

Two bottom dwellers, Hamilton and Edmonton are now among the top teams in the league.  The situation is equivalent to a 200 day moving average in the stock market where the true state of the market at the present time can be missed....there has been violent movement of teams, as British Columbia and Saskatchewan were at the top of the division the first couple of months of the season, and Calgary was a contender and the three of them took huge falls, of which Saskatchewan still hasn't gotten on track.

The bottom feeders (Edmonton and Hamilton) made some coaching changes and their teams have ignited. 

Bookmakers have been slow to respond  so far to the true strength of the CFL teams at the present. 

The linemaker would be using season-long power ratings etc., when they might use a heavier rating system to more recent results.

A and D and p:rushing yards>150 and division=NFC East and p:H and p:W  ( on WAS 63%)

DIV and p:L and D and season>2021 and total>37 and A and line<8  (on Pats & UN) 60%

 I got to get a new home phone mine doesn't ring anymore I just see it on the TV

p)  Away teams with a line between -7 and. +7 that rush for over 100 yards cover 64% of the time 1177-675-50 ATS.  The Ravens have rushed for over 100 yards 35 straight games.  When a home dog in game 3 rushes for less than 90 yards/game plays a team that rushes for over 150 yards per game they've gone 0-7 straight up, losing. by over 14 points per game.

Obviously it is worth contemplating when thinking about backing a road team if they'll rush for over 100 yards.

If a road team rushes for over 100 yards and also outrush yards their opponent they cover 72% of the time.

If the road team rushes for over 100 yards and outrush attempts their opponent they cover 79% of the time.....1001-264-34 ATS (+8.3)....Dallas is rushing for 85 yards/game and Baltimore is rushing for 165/game.

Other rushing stats....

Washington 177 per game, Bengals 72 per game

SF 141/game, Rams 68/game

p)  A week 3 team that rushes for an average of less than 90 yards/game.....as:

  1)  an away dog ...80-49-3 ATS (+2.2), 62.3%........Panthers, Bears, Broncos

  2)  a home favorite..39-53 ATS (-1.7) 42.3%, .......VERSUS Bengals, Raiders, Jets...this moves to 17-33 ATS if they have one win exact...VERSUS Raiders, Jets

q)  A week 3 away dog that rushes for over 150 yards/game has been 25-14 ATS (+3.7).....Packers, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots, Commanders

r)  A week 3 away favorite that rushed for over 150 yards their previous game 26-12 ATS, 30-8 straight up.....Ravens

s) A week 3 home team that rushed for over 150 yards their prevous game 61-40 ATS.....Cardinals, Saints, Falcons

t) A week 3 away team that rushed for over 150 yards, playing a team that allowed over 150 yards....16-2 ATS (+7.2) ON Ravens

u) A week 3 home favorite that allowed more than 150 yards their previous game.....17-37 ATS...VERUS Seahawks, Raiders, Colts

v) A week 3 home favorite that allowed more than 150 yards rushing their previous game, and rushed for less than 90 yards, playing an opponent off a home loss....1-9-1 ATS (-8.0)....VERSUS Raiders, Seahawks

pp:A and p:A and week=3 and F and n:D  (Car & LAC)

Is Thompson starting for Dolphins? This is one of my up in the air games along with Was-Cin , Hou - Min 

That should be "allowed more than 150 yards rushing yards their previous game."

Playing these tomorrow...

1)  CFL Hamilton +6'.....1 unit

2)  CFL Calgary +2'.......1 unit

3)  Nebraska -8............1 unit

4)  Syracuse -8'............1 unit

5)  SJ State +12'..........1 unit

The college plays are in an angle that produces a 10% ROI  over the past 20+ years.

1)  CFL Hamilton +6'.....1 unit.......winner

2)  CFL Calgary +2'.......1 unit.......loser

3)  Nebraska -8............1 unit.......loser

4)  Syracuse -8'............1 unit......loser

5)  SJ State +12'..........1 unit......winner

. 

5) Kansas +115......1 unit............48%

6) UTEP +10.........1 unit...........39%

7) NM State +16'...1 unit...........44%

8) Ohio +20..........1 unit...........48%

9) Buffalo +14.......1 unit...........39% 

10) CFL Edmonton +3'..2 units.    40%

11) CFL Ottawa......+3..1 unit....40%

12) NFL Saints pik -105..2 units

13) J Madison +10'...1 unit.......43%

14) Jax State -6.......1 unit......63%

15) SMU....+2'........1 unit......37%

16)  Tulsa +2............1 unit...........39%...cancelled

17) Rutgers +5.......1 unit...........38%....cancelled

18) Houston +5......1 unit............28%....cancelled

NFL

1)  Saints.....-105.....2 units

2)  Ravens....-1........1 unit

3)  Dolphins..+4'......1 unit

4)  Chargers...+120...1 unit

5) Commanders..+7'...1 unit

@Indigo999

 Bol to us Indigo..

Gonna tail 

Saints...Ravens....Dolphins...