Indianapolis at Baltimore: Did you know the Colts have the worst scoring offense (22.3 PPG) amongst all playoff teams and along with the Redskins they have the worst scoring defense (24.2 PPG). Indianapolis is the only team in the postseason that gives up more points than it scores. What does this mean to me? It tells us that Indy knows it can’t win a shootout on the road with the talent it has. The Colts have 11 wins and the ‘under’ went 9-2 in those games. Indy needs to control the ball and make this a low-scoring game. That’s easier said than done against a Baltimore offense that put up 30-plus in five of its eight home games this season. The Ravens’ defense is definitely a step slower but most would expect the experienced unit to give rookie QB Andrew Luck trouble. And for everybody that’s already sold on the kid, he did toss 18 interceptions and only completed 54% of his passes.
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Indianapolis at Baltimore: Did you know the Colts have the worst scoring offense (22.3 PPG) amongst all playoff teams and along with the Redskins they have the worst scoring defense (24.2 PPG). Indianapolis is the only team in the postseason that gives up more points than it scores. What does this mean to me? It tells us that Indy knows it can’t win a shootout on the road with the talent it has. The Colts have 11 wins and the ‘under’ went 9-2 in those games. Indy needs to control the ball and make this a low-scoring game. That’s easier said than done against a Baltimore offense that put up 30-plus in five of its eight home games this season. The Ravens’ defense is definitely a step slower but most would expect the experienced unit to give rookie QB Andrew Luck trouble. And for everybody that’s already sold on the kid, he did toss 18 interceptions and only completed 54% of his passes.
According to the below table, the ‘under’ has produced an 18-14 (57%) record in the first round of the playoffs the last eight seasons, but the 'over' went 3-1 in last year’s playoffs. Will we see the ‘under’ bounce back this weekend? There are some things to take into consideration. For starters, every total in this year’s first round is listed at 43 points or above. It might not seem like a big deal, but that hasn’t happened since 2004 and you could argue that these numbers might be inflated.
First Round Total History (2004-2011)
2004 (Under 3-1)
2005 (Under 3-1)
St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5
Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37
N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43
New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37
Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56
Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5
Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5
Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5
2006 (Under 3-1)
2007 (Total 2-2)
Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5
Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39
Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48
Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41
New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5
N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5
Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5
San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39
2008 (Under 3-1)
2009 (Over 4-0)
Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5
N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34
San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49
Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5
Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38
Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5
Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41
Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48
2010 (Under 3-1)
2011 (Over 3-1)
Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5
Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38
N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44
Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5
Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41
Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47
Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5
Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34
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First Round Trends
According to the below table, the ‘under’ has produced an 18-14 (57%) record in the first round of the playoffs the last eight seasons, but the 'over' went 3-1 in last year’s playoffs. Will we see the ‘under’ bounce back this weekend? There are some things to take into consideration. For starters, every total in this year’s first round is listed at 43 points or above. It might not seem like a big deal, but that hasn’t happened since 2004 and you could argue that these numbers might be inflated.
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