It's PlayoFf Time........ And The Most Undervalued Team Is........................

It's playoff time and you know what that means, we check'in with "the key stat battles" those things that have a high correlation to winning NFL games and Super Bowls.

And The Most Undervalued Team In The League Is..........................................The Redskins,  by 6.39 points per game. 

In other words, the Redskins have out-played their opponents on the field in "the key stat battles" by 6.39 points per game more than the final score would indicate.

They are a much better team than they look.

This method has a very strong history of success in the NFL Playoffs.

The Most Undervalued Team In.....................................

2011 - Texans, 2-0 ATS

2010 - Jets, 2-1 ATS, winning out-right twice as dogs, and rolling into the AFC Championship game. Will the Skins do the same ??

2009 - Jets, 2-1 ATS, winning out-right as dogs once, and rolling into the AFC Championship game. 

The Undervalued Teams....................

1. Skins + 6.39

2. 49ers +5.3

3. Seahawks +1.53

4. Packers +1.5

5. Broncos +1.18

6. Texans +.8

And The Most Overvalued Team Is................................The Falcons by 3.47 points per game. 

In other words the Falcons are not as good as they look.

The Most Overvalued Teams in the League................................

1. Falcons -3.47

2. Pats - 3.29

3. Colts - 3.22

4. Vikings - 3.03

5. Ravens - 1.3

6. Bengals - 1.23

And The Largest Value Mismatch Is....................................

Skins over Seahawks by 4.86 pts.

For those that have followed this method know it's pure money..............

In the 1st round NBA Playoffs the method called-out the Heat over The Knicks and they rolled to a 4-1 SU & ATS win.

In the  1st round WNBA Playoffs the method called-out  LA over SA and rolled to a 2-0 & 1-0-1 ATS win.

In last years Wild Card games the method called-out the Texans over the Bengals and rolled in a 31-10 blow-out win.

That's 6-1-1 ATS in the opening round of playoffs games.

Redskins +3 over Seahawks --- 5.5 units to win 5 units 

Good Luck Boys and enjoy allll the great games this weekend !!...............................................

12th man will not be a factor ---> It will be a hugh factor..

Wilson Vs RG3 adv Wilson ---> Are you out of your mind? Wilson couldn't even carry RG3's jock strap.

Defense adv Seattle ----> Yeah, Seattle's D is better than Wash, but Wash D's has played extremely well during their 7 game winning streak.

Lynch vs Morris adv Morris ----> They are different types of running backs. No advantage, i would call it even.

Carrol vs The Shanahans tie ----> Is this a joke? Shannahan will eat Carroll for breakfast, lunch, and dinner...maybe dessert too

I think Seattle will win this game by at least 7 points.Prediction Seattle 31 Skins 24 ---->  If the Redskins play their game, they will win. Of course, if the Redskins play poorly like committing penalties, turnovers, etc...the outcome might be different.

Quote Originally Posted by mellow_wolf:

Much respect to you Claw, but 8 games is not nearly enough of an acceptable sample size. I need to see much more than that to have any value which is acceptable for wagering purposes.

Also, the Jets, Texans and Miami Heat were all stellar defensive teams. This is very significant. The Redskins are not even close to matching those teams on defense(don't know anything about the LA Sparks, so I cannot comment on their defense).

The Skins had the good fortune of playing turnover prone Dallas and Philly teams 4 out of their last 7 games which skews their numbers greatly. The Skins are who we think they are, not some vastly undervalued bunch of great players. 

This matchup goes beyond any power rankings and I think Seattle is being placed(rightfully so) as favorites due to their inherent advantages. No trickery, deception or intentional misplacement of value. 

The Seahawks are simply the better overall team---offense, defense and special teams. 

They will show that on Sunday night, imo.

It's called far more than 8 games, has won in every sport I've tried it, including MLB and and college football bowl games, has a very strong record in SB's including having the Pats the most overvalued team I'd ever seen going into the SB last year and calling for a  Gaints cover.

I only listed last year's picks in the opening round of playoffs because this is the opening round and because I did not want to type-out a 30 chapter book.

The most interesting thing is many, many times the masses are picking against it, because of the nature of teams being better or worse...........................       "than they appear".

It really is the most incredible thing I've ever seen...........................................and will have a big test this week but I suspect it will pass with flying colors....................................

When I called Minny to win WNBA title at  90% and the Heat to win the title 2 years ago I did not use this method to do that.

For such futures bets I use common denominators that the majority of past champs have.  You can read my WNBA post which is still there where I pointed out Minny lead the league in both FG % and rebounding, that has nothing to do with value on Minny.

With that said of coarse this method won't go 100%, but I've seen enough of it to know I would never bet against it.  

It's no question Seattle is a strong team with a better overall defense.

The Redskins have out-played their opponents so consistently in all the key stat battles, their defense might be weaker but their offense always seems to out-perform what the defense gives-up more consistent than Seattle.

The Redskins have won the combination of key stat battles 12 and lost 4, which means they are actually 12-4 not 10-6 to the method.

That alone gives one value because this again shows the Skins are better than they appear.

Seattle has won 11- lost 5.

What do you think the spread would be if Skins were 12-4, and how do you think that would affect public thinking ?

In the eyes of the method they are 12-4, this gives the method an advantage others don't have.

The Redskins have actually out-played their opponents at a higher level in some close games than Seattle did in their 42-13 beat-down of the 49ers, which the method rated as a 18 pt win, not a 29 poin t beat-down.

The Redskins had 10 pt wins where they won the combination of key stat battles by a larger amount than Seattle's 29 pt win, and the method rated that as a 21 pt win.

One of the things the method does is reward teams for domination in a stat battle, Skins have had more of these than Seattle.

One of the best indicators that  many  are not  aware of is, dominating weak teams is a strong indication of a very good team.

FO has done work in this area and so have other web sites as well as myself.

Skins have more high levels of domination than the Seahawks which pushes-up the overall averages.

RGIII is higher rated, has a better ave per pass and is far better at not throwing int's.  Wilson throws int at almost  double the rate of RGIII.

And having 0 or 1 TO games is big for the method...........................................................

I've called This person out in the past for posting false info.

I am quite aware of total yds diff in SB winners, to say that teams over +35 generally do well is false.

To assume that teams under +35 are frauds or won't do well is false, many such teams have made the AFC or NFC championship games.

To say that the majority of SB winners out-gained their opponents by +35 yds or more is true.

To say teams under +35 likely won't win the SB is true.

That info in no way has any bearing on whether the Skins will cover the spread this week, but I do agree it indicates the Skins are not likely to win the SB, but has nothing to do with the Skins covering the spread this week.

Just off the top of my head I can tell you something like 9 teams made the SB since 1999 under +35 total yds diff , and 3 won it with 2 covering , and 3 others covered the spread.

Many of those teams were in the wild card round and won 3 consecutive games in the Playoffs including the G-men last year.

We're not talking about covering the spread in 1 wild card game but winning 3 consecutive games as dogs, Zona did it getting to SB and covering for 4-0 ATS in the playoffs, 2007 Gmen did it 4-0 ATS,as did Carolina in 2003 4-0 ATS and Titans in 1999 , 4-0 ATS.

So let's not get carried away with under +35 yard teams like the Redskins being frauds who can't do well. Totally false info...............................................

POWER RATINGS............................................................

1. 49ERS - 13.1

2. Seattle - 10.36

3. Broncos - 10.04

4. Redskins - 9.58

5. Pats - 8.58

6. Packers - 7.56

7. Texans - 6.46

8. Falcons - 4.58

9. Ravens - 4.02

10. Bengals - 3.22

11. Vikings - (-1.24)

12. Colts - (-5.96)

Find the difference between opponents and add 3 pts for home Field..................................

Ravens -12.98 over Colts

Packers -11.8 over Vikings

Texans -6.24 over Bengals

Redskins -2.22 over Seahawks

With a 6 pt difference between these and the "closing line", it's important to use the closing line as this factors in the public's perception, then we have a play.

Right now it looks like no plays, Ravens have a 5.98 diff and Skins have a 5.22 diff.

I won't adjust these ratings untill the SB, I've found they work just as well without adjusting, each week we will revisit these Power Ratings and Value Ratings and make plays.

Game-time is getting closer, Good Luck ............................................