FO does some nice research, however their DVOA is very weak, my info has eaten DVOA up for lunch.
A couple years back in 2010 they had the Pats as one of the best teams in the DVOA era ever, when I first saw that I damn-near laughed myself to death.
And that is on the site now because now they have Seattle one of the best and they breakdown the other teams who finished high, like the 2010 Pats.
Pats were a very weak no.1 seed, and both my power ratings and value ratings had the Jets to cover and win out-right and of coarse they did.
That's 1 example, there are plenty more and I suspect I'll add another notch to my belt this week over DVOA.
My method is not as much about blow-out wins, but blow-outs in a stat, yea Seattle has blow-out wins but not in the stats like the Redskins have.
For and they haven't won each stat as consistent week in week out like the Skins. example, in the 49ers 42-13 win, Seattle won the ave gain per pass by only .8, that is not indicative of a 29 pt blow-out, it simply is not. Seattle losses alot of value because they were not as good as the final score indicates.
In the Redskins 7 pt win over Philly they won the ave gain per pass battle by 1.3 yds, a much bigger more dominating performance which indicateds a larger win then 7 pts, the Redskins are just flat-out better than the scores in their games make them look and this is why the are the most undervalued team in the league. Here the Redskins gain alot of value because they are much, much better than the final score indicates.
The majority of people are looking only at Seattle's 42-13 final score and the Redskins 27-20 final score but the method is looking at value and the Redskins win that by a country mile in those games, this is why FO rates Seattle high because of that42-13 score and such similar dominance what my method is telling us is that dominating 42-13 score was NOT DESERVING OR EARNED BY SEATTLE it was more luck.
In that game alone Seattle lost 10.71 pts of value while the Redskins earned 8.25 pts of value a whopping 18.96 difference in value pts.
So while you and FO is looking at that final score I'm looking at the value earned.
And that was one of the reasons I was very confident that the Rams would cover VS Seattle in week 17 because teams coming off games with big negatives in value tend to not cover the next week, great stats or noT.
Teams can not continue to score more than their play-on the field is worth, because that is mostly luck..
The value method tells us which team has more value, in other words which teams are playing better or worse than the final scores in their games, and the Redskins play-on the field is far greater than the final scores in their games would indicate and this gives us value in the point spread........................................................................
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