*** Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots ***

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

The way to stop the Patriots is pressuring Brady and playing lights out defense. And the Jags have the personnel to do it right? While everyone will look at how the Jags will stop the Pats on offense, it’s the other side of the ball that should be the main concern.

The best thing about the Patriots currently is that everybody thinks their defense is terrible just by looking at the stats, but they have a very underrated unit. Yes they are ranked in the bottom of the league in yards allowed per game, but most of that came early in the season when many things were different as they had a ton of injuries early on.

New England lost their star linebacker for the year which caused them to move several players around, they incorporated Stephon Gilmore into the defense which took some time, and even Alan Branch who is their top run stuffer hasn’t played a game over the final month (he’ll finally be returning this game). Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy were battling several injuries late in the season as well. Additionally, they’ve now added another pass rusher in James Harrison. Pats also have one of the top 5 defensive coordinators in the league who’s helped lead them to the #2 scoring defense in the NFL over the past 8 years since he started calling the defensive plays in 2009. I said it a month ago when we bet the Patriots to win the AFC that this is the healthiest the Patriots have been all season long. Bortles will have a much tougher test here than he’s seen so far in the past 2 weeks.

On top of it, New England is coming off their best defensive output of the year putting up 8 sacks. I don’t see how the Jags will sustain long drives on offense especially against a defense they haven’t seen yet this year. They definitely won’t win the preparation battle of Marrone vs Belicheck during the week. In fact, Belichick is 14-0 in the playoffs against teams that didn’t play him in the regular season.

As for the other side, the Jags defense might stall New England on a drive here and there, but Brady has absolutely dominated strong defenses throughout his career. In fact, Brady is 7-0 at home against the #1 ranked defense in the league over his career (15 TD, 4 INT), and I’m sure he can’t wait to face this defense that everyone keeps praising (more on this ‘#1 defense’ in a moment). Especially after the Jags showed signs of overconfidence after their latest victory, “we’re going to the Superbowl, and we’re going to win the whole damn thing.” - Jalen Ramsey post-victory; immaturity at its finest. Talks about the Patriots demise, Brady falling off a cliff, and now facing the #1 defense, this is finally the statement game the Pats have been waiting for and Brady will absolutely be ready. (They faced the Jets, Bills, Titans recently - all bottom feeders).

Back to the Jags top defense, people will probably call me crazy for saying this, but the way these 2 teams are positioned today with the Pats finally healthy – I’m actually not even convinced the Jaguars have the better defense. They beat the Steelers and everyone all of a sudden forgets they had the 32nd toughest schedule in the league this year. Jags strength of schedule when ranking opponents offensive efficiency? #30th out of 32. Yes the Pats had an easy schedule as well, but they are already a proven commodity as they won the Superbowl last year with nearly the same roster. Why is anybody bringing up the Pats easy schedule this year like its anything negative? Let's not forget the Jags won 3 games in 2016. Jimmy Gorrapolo put up 44 points against this team in his 4th game ever with the 49ers a few weeks ago, while the Steelers scored 42 last weekend despite terrible play-calling. There's absolutely no reason Brady won’t expose this defense.

Many people will play the Coughlin vs Brady card but I’m not buying it. I loved Jacksonville against Pittsburgh, not 1 bit against New England. The Steelers came into that game so unprepared, the offense didn’t play for 3 weeks prior to last week’s game, the players were already talking about New England like the Jaguars weren’t an obstacle in front of them, the team begged to have Jacksonville as their opponent a week before the game, and Laveon Bell said he might retire 48 hours prior to kickoff. Before you knew it, they were down 21-0 and had to play catch up the rest of the game. Belichick doesn’t run a circus like Pittsburgh, his players will be 110% focused and ready for this game, and I expect this to be the biggest blowout of the playoffs thus far. As opposed to the regular season, the post-season is so much more about coaching. This will be my third and final best play of the season as I don’t see this game being close at all. The only person capable of beating the trio of Belichick, McDaniels, and Matt Patricia in their 6th year together is Mike Zimmer.

-Patriots -7 ($10,000)

-Jags Under 19 ($1,000)

-Patriots -2 / Vikings +4 -120 ($2,000)

-Patriots -13.5 +185 ($500)

NFL Playoffs: 7-1 ATS +$24,400

NFL: 22-8 ATS run

Note: Yes the hand injury is a concern, but if he's healthy the Jags have no chance here. Taking a risk, but a calculated one - as the Jags offense vs Pats defense alone is a huge mismatch.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

The way to stop the Patriots is pressuring Brady and playing lights out defense. And the Jags have the personnel to do it right? While everyone will look at how the Jags will stop the Pats on offense, it’s the other side of the ball that should be the main concern.

The best thing about the Patriots currently is that everybody thinks their defense is terrible just by looking at the stats, but they have a very underrated unit. Yes they are ranked in the bottom of the league in yards allowed per game, but most of that came early in the season when many things were different as they had a ton of injuries early on.

New England lost their star linebacker for the year which caused them to move several players around, they incorporated Stephon Gilmore into the defense which took some time, and even Alan Branch who is their top run stuffer hasn’t played a game over the final month (he’ll finally be returning this game). Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy were battling several injuries late in the season as well. Additionally, they’ve now added another pass rusher in James Harrison. Pats also have one of the top 5 defensive coordinators in the league who’s helped lead them to the #2 scoring defense in the NFL over the past 8 years since he started calling the defensive plays in 2009. I said it a month ago when we bet the Patriots to win the AFC that this is the healthiest the Patriots have been all season long. Bortles will have a much tougher test here than he’s seen so far in the past 2 weeks.

On top of it, New England is coming off their best defensive output of the year putting up 8 sacks. I don’t see how the Jags will sustain long drives on offense especially against a defense they haven’t seen yet this year. They definitely won’t win the preparation battle of Marrone vs Belicheck during the week. In fact, Belichick is 14-0 in the playoffs against teams that didn’t play him in the regular season.

As for the other side, the Jags defense might stall New England on a drive here and there, but Brady has absolutely dominated strong defenses throughout his career. In fact, Brady is 7-0 at home against the #1 ranked defense in the league over his career (15 TD, 4 INT), and I’m sure he can’t wait to face this defense that everyone keeps praising (more on this ‘#1 defense’ in a moment). Especially after the Jags showed signs of overconfidence after their latest victory, “we’re going to the Superbowl, and we’re going to win the whole damn thing.” - Jalen Ramsey post-victory; immaturity at its finest. Talks about the Patriots demise, Brady falling off a cliff, and now facing the #1 defense, this is finally the statement game the Pats have been waiting for and Brady will absolutely be ready. (They faced the Jets, Bills, Titans recently - all bottom feeders).

Back to the Jags top defense, people will probably call me crazy for saying this, but the way these 2 teams are positioned today with the Pats finally healthy – I’m actually not even convinced the Jaguars have the better defense. They beat the Steelers and everyone all of a sudden forgets they had the 32nd toughest schedule in the league this year. Jags strength of schedule when ranking opponents offensive efficiency? #30th out of 32. Yes the Pats had an easy schedule as well, but they are already a proven commodity as they won the Superbowl last year with nearly the same roster. Why is anybody bringing up the Pats easy schedule this year like its anything negative? Let's not forget the Jags won 3 games in 2016. Jimmy Gorrapolo put up 44 points against this team in his 4th game ever with the 49ers a few weeks ago, while the Steelers scored 42 last weekend despite terrible play-calling. There's absolutely no reason Brady won’t expose this defense.

Many people will play the Coughlin vs Brady card but I’m not buying it. I loved Jacksonville against Pittsburgh, not 1 bit against New England. The Steelers came into that game so unprepared, the offense didn’t play for 3 weeks prior to last week’s game, the players were already talking about New England like the Jaguars weren’t an obstacle in front of them, the team begged to have Jacksonville as their opponent a week before the game, and Laveon Bell said he might retire 48 hours prior to kickoff. Before you knew it, they were down 21-0 and had to play catch up the rest of the game. Belichick doesn’t run a circus like Pittsburgh, his players will be 110% focused and ready for this game, and I expect this to be the biggest blowout of the playoffs thus far. As opposed to the regular season, the post-season is so much more about coaching. This will be my third and final best play of the season as I don’t see this game being close at all. The only person capable of beating the trio of Belichick, McDaniels, and Matt Patricia in their 6th year together is Mike Zimmer.

LC:

Awww man, been on same side as you throughout and I love your analytics but I cannot side with you on this one.  You broke it down to perfection, yet I gotta go better D vs. better offense.  Even King Brady and Belicheck are susceptible to good defenses. Thank you for all the time and effort you put in to your write ups; I thoroughly enjoy reading them.... I got 5% of your bet on Jags at plus 9, hope Pats win by 8!!!!!! GL

LC, been following you for some time and this run you're on is impressive and I don't see it stopping now. The thing with NE is Tom could have a cut on his thumb or he could have a broken thumb and you would never even know it. I think it's being over blown because they're so quiet about it. I loved JAX against PITT because PITT showed exactly who they've been, a perennial under achiever. They lack focus and it starts with the coach. Belichick has his team 110% focused. JAX defense being touted as one of the best defenses in recent history but they're not even close to Seattle and Denver a few years back. "But their front 4 has 50+ sacks" but take a closer look at where those sacks came from. 28 came from the 4 games against the Colts and Texans, #1 and #2 in sacks taken in the league. They've given up 37, 27, 27 and 44 to the Titans, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers led by Mariota, Goff, Gabbert, and Garoppolo.

Everyone rags on the Pats defense because of the yards they give up but as I've been telling people for years, the only thing determining wins and losses and points. The Pats are 5th in points against all season, only 31 more than JAX. The yards mean little given the fact they play with a lead more times than not and I'm sure are tops in the league in opponent average starting line of scrimmage because they have top special teams and they limit the amount of turnovers resulting into longer fields thus more yards allowed. The Pats defense is better and more talented than JAX offense and Brady injury or not I had them scoring between 13-17 points anyways. 

Thanks Bill & Tom for getting the books to lower the line. 

Pats -7 (5u)

Pats 24-13

Never have I tailed anyone blindly but how can I not tail you after the streak you are on. I took Minni -3 early bc it was too good to resist (hopin you were on the same page lol)

and now, after slightly leaning Jags with the plus money when it was +9, the fact that it is at 7 now makes me lean slightly to the Pats side... With you on it large now, you have me riding the LC train with this pick sir. 

Lets do this, Pats -7 locked in 

I think u r spot on with ur analysis 

good luck 

LC what you think about taking Patriots 1st half also? Thoughts appreciated thanks. 

With all due respect LC and you deserve it! Brady's injury is much worse than anticipated if it were not that serious  he himself would have said so ! I wouldn't be putting anything on him in this match up . The Jags can create enough pressure to make this interesting but as Tom said "We will see "!