Johnson's NFL Picks - Week 7

OVERALL RECORD:  22-26  (-5.25 units)

SIDES:  7-12-1  (-6.15 units)

TOTALS:  9-8  (+0.80 units)

PARLAY:  0-4  (-4.00 units)

PROPS:  6-2  (+4.10 units)
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Some good stuff on the board this week.  I have a good feeling I can get back on track.  Thankfully I'm hitting bets in NCAA and NHL and MLB or I would be down.

Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5  (-110)

The Chiefs have stumbled the past couple weeks, and the Jaguars looked like shit on Monday night.  But I just can't see this game ending with a double digit victory for the Chiefs.  Without David Garrard in there, I see the Jags running the ball quite a bit.  Kansas City still gets the win, but not by 10+

Prediction:  Chiefs  20  Jaguars 13

Atlanta Falcons -3 (-120)

The Falcons are a much better team at home, and I think they will be looking to make a huge statement after last week.  The Bengals had a much needed bye week, but they are still a team with a lot of problems.  I look for the Falcons to pick off Carson Palmer a few times, possibly even one for a touchdown.

Prediction:  Falcons 28  Bengals 17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins OVER 40.5  (-110)

Way over here.  Play of the week for me.  Both teams are absolutely rolling coming into this week.  The Steelers got Big Ben his easy layup game last week against the Browns just to shake off the rust.  The Dolphins are high as a kite after their overtime win against the Packers in Lambeau.  The Dolphins allow a lot more points at home, and they will bring out some trick plays in order to keep up.

Prediction:  Dolphins  30  Steelers  27


Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5  (-110)

Once again, my favorite trend in sports.  The Bucs have had a great win, then an ugly loss, then a great win, then an ugly loss.  This is their week for a great win.  The Rams are getting a lot of credit, but haven't won on the road.  They lost to a shitty Raiders team and got crushed by an equally shitty Lions team.  The Bucs aren't good against the run, and the Rams have an advantage there...but I don't like a rookie QB on the road in a great stadium.

Prediction:  Bucs  20  Rams 13

Buffalo Bills +14  (-110)

The Ravens were great last season as double digit favorites...going 5-1.  This season however, they lost as a double digit favorite at home against the Brownies.  It almost seems like the exact same situation once again this week.  The Ravens coming off a tough loss on the road against a rival...returning home to play a team that they should whoop the shit out of.  The Bills don't do a lot of things well, but after watching the Ravens this season, I really cant' see them blowing out a lot of teams this year....even the Bills.

Prediction:  Ravens  23  Bills 13

New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers UNDER 47.5  (-110)

I am going to ride the lunch pail Patriots and the UNDER every week until it loses.  I don't see it happening this week.  As we saw last week against a Ravens offense that has some solid weapons, the Patriots defense is getting better every week.  Not sure if they have enough to win the game, but I can't see them giving up or scoring a lot of points.

Prediction:  Patriots  24  Chargers 17

my original thought was to take miami but maybe the over is the better play.  i'm concerned that pittsburgh's new offense may not fare as well at miami as irt did at home against cleveland but maybe that's not the best way to look at this game. 

i do like atlanta and you always have a good shot beting against the ravens as big favorites.  good luck.

cheers

The only thing that worries me obviously is the Pitt's defense is damn good against the rush, and the Dolphins sometimes get trapped into that.

I like the Over in the Miami/Pitts game , GL CM

Good calls on those games, makes sense, GL 

if the pats are gonna win 24-17 y not play them +3 or better yet money line?? they lose fool

 

oh and if the pats dont score 30 in this game they lose very easily,,

 

You need some winners to get back to your bad nfl avg of 49% comeon boss, I think you may get there with hard work and more bad picks

Well roscoe...you stopped giving me your picks...so I've been lost.

goodluck   

BOL!

Curious as to what  you are looking at when you say the Pats defense is getting better ??

Last week their defense made Flacco look like P. Manning in his best season at his peak, giving up a 119.2 defensive passer rating to Flacco.

Their ave is 96 or 27th in the league,  they played much, much worse against the Ravens.

They rank dead last in the league in 3rd down %, giving up a 3rd down over 49% of the time.

Footballoutsiders ranks the Pats defense 27th.

The Pats 4-1 record is deceptive, they are no-where near this good and will likely be exposed soon.

One note on the KC/Jax game: The Chiefs have had success primarily at stopping the run, and MJD has been FAR from unstoppable this year.  Edwards is awful, and an immobile Garrard might be worse (if he plays).  The Jags secondary is one of the worst I've ever seen, and Cassel has some serious weapons in Bowe, McCluster and Moeaki.  And Charles and Jones should always be able to move the chains.   It's just a blowout waiting to happen.  I would say it's Chiefs or no play.

claw...if you have watched the games from the Pats this year...they have improved VERY much from the first couple weeks against the Bengals and Jets

Bahh if the pats dont score 30 this week they lose, i think they score 20 they lose.bahhh

 

you are a true retard.

The mighty Chargers put up 17 against the Rams.

Not sure why everyone is on their shit since they beat up the Cardinals and Jaguars at home.

BOL johnson 

Nice New York owns boston, it really isnt a competative rivalry but the Jets bury the pats and the Rangers bury the bruins today. NY is basically better at boston in everything except having fat smelly girls cuss at bars, boston wins in that area.  nice job boston for sucking and having disgusting fat drunk cussing broads

Jets aren't even from New York...so I don't know how that fits in..but i'll humor you

Jets bury Pats?  The Patriots have won 8 out of the last 12 games.

Rangers own the Bruins?  They are 6-6 in their last 12 matchups.

Celtics are 10-2 in their last 12 matchups with the Knicks

The Red Sox and Yankees split their season at 9-9 this year.


As far as the broads...I would say they are about equal as well.  For every good looking girl...there is a fat drunken broad.  At least we don't have the Jersey implants here.