Not a terrible start to week 1, which I have always said is a "feeler" week. You have your ideas on teams that you think are good and you think are bad. Generally...that gets thrown out the window real quick. No team is as good as they were in week 1 and no team is as bad as they were in week 1. I will continue to do line projections each week on Tuesday mornings or Monday nights as I did a couple years ago. I find that it greatly helps where my mind focuses in on.
Not a terrible start to week 1, which I have always said is a "feeler" week. You have your ideas on teams that you think are good and you think are bad. Generally...that gets thrown out the window real quick. No team is as good as they were in week 1 and no team is as bad as they were in week 1. I will continue to do line projections each week on Tuesday mornings or Monday nights as I did a couple years ago. I find that it greatly helps where my mind focuses in on.
Miami (-3) vs Buffalo 43.5 Jacksonville vs Washington (-3.5) 42 Dallas vs Tennessee (-5.5) 46 Arizona (-6) vs NY Giants 43 New England (-4) vs Minnesota 48 New Orleans (-7.5) vs Cleveland 49 Atlanta vs Cincinnati (-5.5) 46.5 Detroit vs Carolina (-1) 50 St. Louis vs Tampa Bay (-6.5) 42.5 Seattle (-5.5) vs San Diego 41 Houston vs Oakland (-3) 44.5 NY Jets vs Green Bay (-7.5) 48 Kansas City vs Denver (-10) 52 Chicago vs San Francisco (-7) 46
Philadelphia vs Indianapolis (-2) 55.5
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Pittsburgh vs Baltimore (-2) 45
Miami (-3) vs Buffalo 43.5 Jacksonville vs Washington (-3.5) 42 Dallas vs Tennessee (-5.5) 46 Arizona (-6) vs NY Giants 43 New England (-4) vs Minnesota 48 New Orleans (-7.5) vs Cleveland 49 Atlanta vs Cincinnati (-5.5) 46.5 Detroit vs Carolina (-1) 50 St. Louis vs Tampa Bay (-6.5) 42.5 Seattle (-5.5) vs San Diego 41 Houston vs Oakland (-3) 44.5 NY Jets vs Green Bay (-7.5) 48 Kansas City vs Denver (-10) 52 Chicago vs San Francisco (-7) 46
Pretty solid on most of the lines...a few totals that were off. No way in hell the Giants should be favored against the Cardinals even at home. Going to check that one out a little bit more...might be locking it in real soon.
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Pretty solid on most of the lines...a few totals that were off. No way in hell the Giants should be favored against the Cardinals even at home. Going to check that one out a little bit more...might be locking it in real soon.
The Bills are heavily reliant on the running game and ball possession. The Dolphins are good at stuffing the run and putting pressure on the quarterback. The Bills were outplayed in just about every category against the Bears...and were able to squeak by because of turnovers from Jay Cutler. I still believe this is a field goal game or at the very least a one score game. Bills have some extra motivation with their pending sale to a Buffalo guy...but the Dolphins are a good team and have the tools to bother the Bills. Prediction: Dolphins 23 Bills 17
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Miami Dolphins -1 (1.1 to win 1)
The Bills are heavily reliant on the running game and ball possession. The Dolphins are good at stuffing the run and putting pressure on the quarterback. The Bills were outplayed in just about every category against the Bears...and were able to squeak by because of turnovers from Jay Cutler. I still believe this is a field goal game or at the very least a one score game. Bills have some extra motivation with their pending sale to a Buffalo guy...but the Dolphins are a good team and have the tools to bother the Bills. Prediction: Dolphins 23 Bills 17
Looking like Cam Newton will be back in the lineup for the Panthers this week...and even if he's not the Panthers should at least be able to get to the 20 mark. They put up 20 against a much stiffer defense in Tampa on the road. Lions defense isn't as solid. I also don't think the Panthers have the cornerbacks to shut down Calvin Johnson and I expect another big game out of him. It's a square play which almost scared me off...but I'll still bite at a solid number.
Prediction: Lions 27 Panthers 23
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Detroit vs Carolina OVER 43.5 (2.2 to win 2)
Looking like Cam Newton will be back in the lineup for the Panthers this week...and even if he's not the Panthers should at least be able to get to the 20 mark. They put up 20 against a much stiffer defense in Tampa on the road. Lions defense isn't as solid. I also don't think the Panthers have the cornerbacks to shut down Calvin Johnson and I expect another big game out of him. It's a square play which almost scared me off...but I'll still bite at a solid number.
I like how you predict the lines so you can see how much (potential) value you have on various matchups and investigate the discrepancies.
IMO, the MIA/BUF matchup could easily go either way, hence the pick em. It seems you agree in your write up, noting that it will end a one score game. Curious why you would bet a game you think could come down to a FG.
I too like the over for DET/CAR, but CAR offense is not a powerhouse. And it is Cam's 1st game. Did he get any preseason action? But Detroit can put up points and Stafford looked great week 1. I like DET ats better than over, but a DET/OVER tease may be best bet.
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I like how you predict the lines so you can see how much (potential) value you have on various matchups and investigate the discrepancies.
IMO, the MIA/BUF matchup could easily go either way, hence the pick em. It seems you agree in your write up, noting that it will end a one score game. Curious why you would bet a game you think could come down to a FG.
I too like the over for DET/CAR, but CAR offense is not a powerhouse. And it is Cam's 1st game. Did he get any preseason action? But Detroit can put up points and Stafford looked great week 1. I like DET ats better than over, but a DET/OVER tease may be best bet.
I like how you predict the lines so you can see how much (potential) value you have on various matchups and investigate the discrepancies.
IMO, the MIA/BUF matchup could easily go either way, hence the pick em. It seems you agree in your write up, noting that it will end a one score game. Curious why you would bet a game you think could come down to a FG.
I too like the over for DET/CAR, but CAR offense is not a powerhouse. And it is Cam's 1st game. Did he get any preseason action? But Detroit can put up points and Stafford looked great week 1. I like DET ats better than over, but a DET/OVER tease may be best bet.
It's essentially a SU bet as worst case scenario with a Dolphins win is a push. I'm confident they are the better team and will come away with a win.
As far as Detroit is concerned it's a tough road game on a short week...I see their defense being a little more fatigued which should make it easier for the Panthers to put up some points.
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Quote Originally Posted by drozanski:
I like how you predict the lines so you can see how much (potential) value you have on various matchups and investigate the discrepancies.
IMO, the MIA/BUF matchup could easily go either way, hence the pick em. It seems you agree in your write up, noting that it will end a one score game. Curious why you would bet a game you think could come down to a FG.
I too like the over for DET/CAR, but CAR offense is not a powerhouse. And it is Cam's 1st game. Did he get any preseason action? But Detroit can put up points and Stafford looked great week 1. I like DET ats better than over, but a DET/OVER tease may be best bet.
It's essentially a SU bet as worst case scenario with a Dolphins win is a push. I'm confident they are the better team and will come away with a win.
As far as Detroit is concerned it's a tough road game on a short week...I see their defense being a little more fatigued which should make it easier for the Panthers to put up some points.
The Giants are lost on offense right now and the Cardinals are a very good defense...especially in the secondary. I see them as being the better team, even on the road.
Prediction: Cardinals 23 Giants 14
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Arizona Cardinals -1 (1.1 to win 1)
The Giants are lost on offense right now and the Cardinals are a very good defense...especially in the secondary. I see them as being the better team, even on the road.
Going bigger on this one. I think the Packers with 10 days of rest come out and smoke the crap out of the Jets. The Jets have a solid defense for sure...but being at home with a lot more rest and coming off a beatdown by the Seahawks I don't see this one being close.
Prediction: Packers 35 Jets 17
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Green Bay Packers -7.5 (2.2 to win 2)
Going bigger on this one. I think the Packers with 10 days of rest come out and smoke the crap out of the Jets. The Jets have a solid defense for sure...but being at home with a lot more rest and coming off a beatdown by the Seahawks I don't see this one being close.
Just a gut feeling on this one. The Titans play ball control offense and the Cowboys struggled to get the ball moving last week. Obviously the Niners defense is pretty strong, but the Titans will be able to shut down the running game as well. Prediction: Titans 24 Cowboys 21
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Dallas vs Tennessee UNDER 49.5 (1.1 to win 1)
Just a gut feeling on this one. The Titans play ball control offense and the Cowboys struggled to get the ball moving last week. Obviously the Niners defense is pretty strong, but the Titans will be able to shut down the running game as well. Prediction: Titans 24 Cowboys 21
Feeling great about the 5 picks this week. Going to do 5 picks per week every week this year. Generally will be based on the line projections and which ones are farthest off.
Working all day tomorrow sadly...but good luck once again to everyone
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Feeling great about the 5 picks this week. Going to do 5 picks per week every week this year. Generally will be based on the line projections and which ones are farthest off.
Working all day tomorrow sadly...but good luck once again to everyone
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