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Johnson's Super Bowl Picks

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by Beningo88:

I totally agree. Pats win and most likely big


Big? I hope big means 4 points..
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by FritoLay:

CM you are giving NE way too much credit here! If Seattle is smart they will go back and look at the tapes of when NE played the Jets twice this year the key to success lies within!


It was success running the ball.. even in Packers loss.. That Thursday night game.. Patriots got a dose of there own medicine.. 5 yard runs, lots of misdirection, short screens.. Jets should have won both games. They played that we'll...
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Seattle plays undisciplined football...you can't deny that.  They get by on the other teams mistakes and broken plays.  Those are two things that the Patriots just don't allow.  You think the Patriots mis-manage the last 5 minutes of the NFC Championship after the interception?  Or botch the onside kick?  Or botch the 2-point conversion?  Or fail to get in the endzone from inside the 5 on a couple of occasions?

Once again, you are basing your whole analysis on how the Seahawks played in their last game, which is a huge mistake.
 
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Posted: #29
EVERYTHING points to a Pats victory


except for the whole "God makes the ball bounce a certain way"... that's what worries me... and maybe the officiating being a little more favorable to the seahawks after what the pats allegedly have done...

I just don't see how the seahawks win this game 20 times if its played 100 times under the same circumstances

 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Amazatron:


Once again, you are basing your whole analysis on how the Seahawks played in their last game, which is a huge mistake.


The seahawks are the 8th most penalized team in football. Its not just what they did vs GB. They constantly make mental mistakes on both sides of the line.

This will be by far the best offense from the schemes to the coaching to the players that Seattle will play in a very long time. If Blount is anywhere near as effective as he was against Indy, The pats should have no trouble scoring 24 points.
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

The more I breakdown each position and how the teams react in different situations..the more I see an easy Patriots win.  This isn't last year with the Broncos who had one type of offensive attack and a weak defense.  Last year they could just blitz the hell out of Peyton Manning and knock him around...this year they blitz and Brady hits the five yard passes all day.

Seattle plays undisciplined football...you can't deny that.  They get by on the other teams mistakes and broken plays.  Those are two things that the Patriots just don't allow.  You think the Patriots mis-manage the last 5 minutes of the NFC Championship after the interception?  Or botch the onside kick?  Or botch the 2-point conversion?  Or fail to get in the endzone from inside the 5 on a couple of occasions?

The NFC championship game was one of the worst games the Seattle played. Sure the defense is undisciplined, but you can't deny it's been the best defense in the league the past 2 seasons.

I'm not saying you're wrong, as I haven't decided my play. I do think it's going to be a tough game, and this patriots team has a much better defense than last time they went to the SB. However, I think Seattle will be able to run on them, as the ravens did (I disagree when you say the patriots took away the run. I just think the ravens chose to give Flacco the ball, same way the packers chose not to give the ball to Rodgers). And I also believe the patriots may cause some with Blount. I agree about coaching advantage to the Patriots, but both teams have good coaching.

I still don't know what to bet. But wish you good luck! 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:


This will be by far the best offense from the schemes to the coaching to the players that Seattle will play in a very long time. If Blount is anywhere near as effective as he was against Indy, The pats should have no trouble scoring 24 points.

Indy defense made Jonas Gray look like the second coming of Barry Sanders.  Blount running all over them on Sunday doesn't mean much.
 
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Posted: #34
Some thoughts on the whole "DeflateGate" crap

We don't have a problem with cheating...until it's from a team that wins. Every QB in the league deflates the footballs, inflates them, roughs them up, smooths them out, whatever makes them happy. There were several teams this year that were popped for it. But if the Minnesota Vikings and Teddy Bridgewater used deflated footballs and went from 4-12 to 6-10...do we care? If the Patriots lost against the Colts and then the footballs were found to be deflated, do we care? It's the same in baseball with steroids. Nobody really cared when a minor league shortstop used steroids to go from hitting .265 to .295 in order to get a shot at the big leagues. But when Barry Bonds goes from hitting no more than 45 home runs in a year to all of a sudden hitting 73 and shattering records, then we have a problem. If someone used blood doping in cycling to go from 40th place in the Tour de France to make it to 8th place do we care? No. But when Lance Armstrong wins 7 straight titles, then we care. The Patriots are the most successful franchise in the league for 15 consecutive years now, and that makes everyone moralists. They can't fathom the fact that such a dirty scumbag like Bill Belicheck deflated footballs to give his team an advantage!! The same exact thing happened in the SpyGate situation. It came out right after that just about every other team video taped the other teams sidelines during games in order to try and gain an advantage in the 2nd half...but because the Patriots had won Super Bowls, they got the "cheater" tag. John Madden came out and said he did it and he knew others did it...dozens of coaches came out and said it happens on a week to week basis. But again...other teams weren't winning as much as the Patriots, and that's where we have the problem. You can cheat in life, just don't win because of it.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:



The seahawks are the 8th most penalized team in football. Its not just what they did vs GB. They constantly make mental mistakes on both sides of the line.

This will be by far the best offense from the schemes to the coaching to the players that Seattle will play in a very long time. If Blount is anywhere near as effective as he was against Indy, The pats should have no trouble scoring 24 points.


Exactly.  I'm not basing the play on just the Seahawks game against the Packers.

They couldn't move the ball against the Panthers and needed turnovers and mistakes to get the game in their favor.

They beat up on WAY lower level QBs for the past 6 weeks of the season.

If the Packers could execute two of the easiest plays to defend in the league (2pt conversion, onside kick) they are in the Super Bowl.  The Patriots don't make those mistakes.
 
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Posted: #36
Feeling more and more comfortable with this pick as the game approaches.
 
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Posted: #37
Should be a great game.
 
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Posted: #38
I just don’t see how you don’t back the Seattle in this spot. Seriously, how many times do we need to see this movie?
The hawks defense has beaten every great quarterback the league has produced in the last couple of years. Manning has lost twice, Rodgers has lost twice, and Brees has lost twice. Oh, and Brady lost to Seattle back in 2012. It’s like no matter what you throw at this team, they continue to shut guys down and win in dominating fashion......no matter how much time the Pats have to prepare, they don’t have the offensive weapons to offset the hawks defense. Sherman is going to shut down his side of the field, Maxwell matches up well on his guy, and Gronkowski, NE only elite skill position player, will be cancelled out with Chancellor.
The Pats don’t have anything the hawks haven’t seen before and simply don’t have the great players on the outside to challenge Seattle’s all-time secondary. This is one of the best defenses the NFL has ever seen and it's scary.....

 
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Posted: #39

Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

Some thoughts on the whole "DeflateGate" crap

We don't have a problem with cheating...until it's from a team that wins. Every QB in the league deflates the footballs, inflates them, roughs them up, smooths them out, whatever makes them happy. There were several teams this year that were popped for it. But if the Minnesota Vikings and Teddy Bridgewater used deflated footballs and went from 4-12 to 6-10...do we care? If the Patriots lost against the Colts and then the footballs were found to be deflated, do we care? It's the same in baseball with steroids. Nobody really cared when a minor league shortstop used steroids to go from hitting .265 to .295 in order to get a shot at the big leagues. But when Barry Bonds goes from hitting no more than 45 home runs in a year to all of a sudden hitting 73 and shattering records, then we have a problem. If someone used blood doping in cycling to go from 40th place in the Tour de France to make it to 8th place do we care? No. But when Lance Armstrong wins 7 straight titles, then we care. The Patriots are the most successful franchise in the league for 15 consecutive years now, and that makes everyone moralists. They can't fathom the fact that such a dirty scumbag like Bill Belicheck deflated footballs to give his team an advantage!! The same exact thing happened in the SpyGate situation. It came out right after that just about every other team video taped the other teams sidelines during games in order to try and gain an advantage in the 2nd half...but because the Patriots had won Super Bowls, they got the "cheater" tag. John Madden came out and said he did it and he knew others did it...dozens of coaches came out and said it happens on a week to week basis. But again...other teams weren't winning as much as the Patriots, and that's where we have the problem. You can cheat in life, just don't win because of it.
So what youre saying is it's ok to cheat as long as youre the Patriots?? And if all the footballs are checked at halftime of every game then how come this is the 1st time we are hearing about it?  I don't care either way, I think its putting a damper on this Super Bowl but don't be so sure that the Seahawks don't have any chance in this game.. And aren't forcing turnovers a part of a winning combo the Seahawks have had the last couple of years or any GREAT defense has ever had?  GL

 

 
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Posted: #40
I've never heard of a team wanting revenge against a city... interesting!
 
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Posted: #41
but didnt the patriots struggle against the jets twice? just curious about that. do you believe seahawks defense is just as good, if not better than the jets? along with offense/coach?
 
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Posted: #42
Cut the bs and just all put our $$$ where our mouth is at .
Seattle -10+350 500k
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by CMJohnson1:

I analyze games mostly on two things...what do yo do well and what do you not do well?

The Patriots are the absolute best in the league at taking away what you do best.  The Seahawks rely on a strong running game, and forcing mistakes.  The Patriots don't make mistakes.  Period.  The Seahawks thrive on taking advantage of mistakes and broken plays.  My guess is that the Patriots DON'T pressure Russell Wilson...instead let him sit back there and try and find an open receiver.  It won't happen.  What was the last game for the Seahawks where they went up against a great offense, and won because of their performance in the trenches?

Here's the answer...Week 3 against Denver.  And that was at home, and just barely. 

Other than that they've beaten weaker QB's week in and week out...Ryan Lindley's, Drew Stanton's, Shaun Hill's, Broken down Colin Kaepernick's, Mark Sanchez's.

Are you kidding me?  That's supposed to go in and all of a sudden beat Tom Brady with Edelman, Gronk, Blount, LaFell, and who knows what else?

You seriously think they are going to let Russell sit back there and take naps. He is an accurate thrower he not a Colin Kapernick. This won't be a 4 interceptions game, 2 of which wasn't his fault. The score you posted is absurd and can not be taken seriously. This defense is much better then New England makeshift defense and suspect secondary. This game will be highly contested and they will have a linebacker shadowing Russell all night with eight in the box to stop beast mode and when they do it will be one on one coverage. FYI "Im here so I won't get FINED".... lol 
 
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Posted: #44
Good luck..

Pakalolo.sweet :)
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:



The seahawks are the 8th most penalized team in football. Its not just what they did vs GB. They constantly make mental mistakes on both sides of the line.

This will be by far the best offense from the schemes to the coaching to the players that Seattle will play in a very long time. If Blount is anywhere near as effective as he was against Indy, The pats should have no trouble scoring 24 points.


Little know fact for those that actually do their homework............................the most penalized team has won more SB's then they've lost.

Penalties have no correlation to winning the SB themselves, in fact you'd be better off playing the team with.....more penalties over history..............................


Most everything that has correlation to winning SB's points to the Seahawks.................................
 
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Posted: #46
The way to beat Sherman is to run him across the middle of the field...that's his weakness.  He's the best in the game at the deep ball and taking out #1 receivers...the Patriots have neither of that. 

Chancellor is still 3 inches shorter and 40 pounds lighter than Gronk...so I'm highly doubtful he will shut him down completely.


 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by febaby3:


You seriously think they are going to let Russell sit back there and take naps. He is an accurate thrower he not a Colin Kapernick. This won't be a 4 interceptions game, 2 of which wasn't his fault. The score you posted is absurd and can not be taken seriously. This defense is much better then New England makeshift defense and suspect secondary. This game will be highly contested and they will have a linebacker shadowing Russell all night with eight in the box to stop beast mode and when they do it will be one on one coverage. FYI "Im here so I won't get FINED".... lol 


I didn't mean it as let Russell Wilson just sit back there and have 6+ seconds to throw...I meant it as what you said...load the box to stop the running game and keep Jamie Collins as a spy to make sure he doesn't escape and make plays with his feet.  If the Patriots can keep Wilson in the pocket early...it's over.  That's not the type of quarterback he is.
 
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Posted: #48
How about some prop bets?
 
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Posted: #49
 
 
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Posted: #50
Russell Wilson THROWS an interception  ($120 to win $100)

Rob Gronkowski OVER 5.5 Receptions  ($125 to win $100)

Shane Vereen UNDER 3.5 Receptions  ($120 to win $100)

Doug Baldwin UNDER 4.5  Receptions  ($115 to win $100)

Seattle commits first turnover  ($110 to win $100)

Shortest TD of Game OVER 1.5 Yards  ($100 to win $100)

New England Converts 4th Down  ($100 to win $100)
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