Kc +1.5 and Why

Finally it's SB Sunday.   Let's look at some numbers:

           Team Offense Rushing Rank -T. Offense Passing Rank -T. Defense Rushing Rank -T. Defense Passing Rank -Sagarin Rank Sagarin - Sagarin Strength of Schedule

51 Kc    21 1 8 20 2 16

PK Phi   4 12 15 1 5 31

The game opens up as a PK (madduxsports.com)   and quickly jumped to the Eagles being favored and settled on 1.5 for the Eagles for most of the last two weeks.   This morning Fan Duel still had it at -1.5 - Heritage is at -1.    

Kc is better in Off. Passing rank,  1 vs 12 ;  def rushing rank at 8 vs 15;  Sagarin rank at 2 vs 5;  Schedule strength  16 vs 31.   

Phi is better in 2 categories   Off Rushing 21 vs 4;  Def Passing rank 20 vs 1;  

I wish it worked where the team that was more dominant in these categories or one particular data point was who you take - it doesn't.    That's why you gotta go deeper and see if there's cause and effect or correlations you can figure out.       

SB's in general are not the best games to bet on for a variety of factors - the major one being they are playing on a neutral field.  You got limited data due to the fact most games are home/away.  Like all of us in here we are degenerates to some degree so we love the action.   

What I'm trying to find are games on a neutral field where the bottom team opened as a PK and they had the scenario above - I don't have any Superbowl's or games played on a neutral field with this scenario.   However, we do have our home and away data so that's what i'm basing my pic on as well as looking at some of the particulars of the data i.e. off ranks, def ranks schedule strength etc.

The game that i found which was almost identical to today's game with the exception being the opening line it was -4 vice pk was when TB played GBY -   in the playoffs a couple of years ago.    TB won the game outright 31 to 26.  In addition, with this pattern the away team is the team that mostly wins these games unfortunately I don't have any games with pk.      

Because it's on a neutral field becareful.   Enjoy the Big Game and good luck to all.     

I got Kc +1.5       

On KC as well

GL @TheBuddah

 Like I always say may the best team covers & prevails 

@WhatThePho

 Back at ya.

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac and Back at ya.   

Opposite lol! Guaranteed Winner 4 me. The whole Covers is on KC because of Mahomes! We shall see!

@Gettinghot4now

 I've been there where I'd do the opposite of what most people are doing - I learned.    I'd rather have another reason to hang my hat on vice going the opposite.    I know it works sometimes but for consistency -i'd rather have something else.    Either way Bol.   

Why bother using covers? I see too many post like this. 

I myself like eagles the past two weeks.  There was enough evidence to make me rethink my pick. 

I made no play. An opportunity came in the second half to take chiefs -3.  So basically chiefs +7 for full game.  Wasn't sure if chiefs were gonna win but I couldn't see them losing by more than a touchdown!

Great job Buddah.....I like your style,  keep it up man !!

Nice hit buddy...I had ML.   Hopefully we can catch up soon.

@TheBuddah

@insatiable

 Thanks bud.

@kamphil

 Back at ya and let’s do that . 

@Alien-1

 Thanks and back at ya 

@D-Town

Thanks bud .

@Ppkay

  Glad you saw the light as well ….consensus should give you pause but it’s not everything .