KC Chiefs Futures Bet

Someone please explain to me why the chiefs to win the division at -110 right now is not the bet of a lifetime?

because you could have got them at +190 last week.  You have recency bias after snf.  Yes they looked great, but raiders really beat themselves, by dropping ints and fumbling etc.  Dallas won't drop the ints.  If you think they beat dallas then bet it now.   or better yet just bet the chiefs -2.5 -110 vs cowboys and cash it, rather then wait two months and hope they don't suffer any injuries. That division is still wide open.  If they lose to dallas and chargers beat steelers and raiders beat bengals, which are all possible, then kc will be in third place and they will probabaly be +190 again.  

The division not the afc

I think KC beats Cowboys.. take it now..  

exactly.  

@lordbettington

 Damn good analysis!

@lordbettington

 You could bet them to beat Dallas and they lose...your money has gone and gone for good...if you take the futures bet and they lose against Dallas your bet is at least still a runner altho not worth quite as much...swings and roundabouts...

Full disclosure...odds on to win the division is a terrible bet...as decent as they have looked recently its been against teams that both shot themselves in the foot and were missing a top QB...that defence is still garbage...think Dallas punch them hard in the gob this weekend.

That bet of a lifetime? Seriously?

All four teams in that division are within one game of each other.

FiveThirtyEight estimates KC has a 52% chance right now, of winning the division. If that estimate is accurate, and I see no reason why it isn't, -110 is spot on.

KC hosts Dallas this weekend, in what is essentially a pick'em game. If the beat Dallas and lose to Denver in Week 13, their chances of winning the division drop to 34%. Even if they lose to Dallas and beat Denver, their chances still drop to 45%.

I see no value here. Sorry.