It is what it is. When we see a line that is not right, you only get one opportunity on it.
I will roll with Patrick Mahomes over Paxton Lynch. I know who is sitting, I don't care. The Chiefs are going to win.
Also, chew on this for a moment if you will....
The Broncos will pick 4th overall if they lose, they could fall as low as 11th if they win.
You know why the Broncos need that pick so badly?
To pick a QB because Paxton Lynch is awful.
In KC, if you look at the cap, Alex Smith is unlikely to return next year. Believe it. You know who they will be bringing in? Hotshot Patrick Mahomes.
It's a no brainer for me. This is one of those situations where, if I lose, so be it. I see this as an incredibly likely scenario for KC to win straight up.
$1,000 wins $909 KC +3.5
$1,000 wins $1,700 (+170) KC Moneyline.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
It is what it is. When we see a line that is not right, you only get one opportunity on it.
I will roll with Patrick Mahomes over Paxton Lynch. I know who is sitting, I don't care. The Chiefs are going to win.
Also, chew on this for a moment if you will....
The Broncos will pick 4th overall if they lose, they could fall as low as 11th if they win.
You know why the Broncos need that pick so badly?
To pick a QB because Paxton Lynch is awful.
In KC, if you look at the cap, Alex Smith is unlikely to return next year. Believe it. You know who they will be bringing in? Hotshot Patrick Mahomes.
It's a no brainer for me. This is one of those situations where, if I lose, so be it. I see this as an incredibly likely scenario for KC to win straight up.
Cant disagree with this pick. What do the Broncos have to play for this season? Absolutely Nothing. Might as well get a better draft positioning. I could see KC trying to give Andy Reid another double digit win season just because 10-6 sounds better than 9-7 and Reid is def an egomaniac kind. Patrick Mahomes look good in preseason and he is def the better QB going into this game. KC's domination of the AFC West continues....
Sip on that plus money honey!
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Cant disagree with this pick. What do the Broncos have to play for this season? Absolutely Nothing. Might as well get a better draft positioning. I could see KC trying to give Andy Reid another double digit win season just because 10-6 sounds better than 9-7 and Reid is def an egomaniac kind. Patrick Mahomes look good in preseason and he is def the better QB going into this game. KC's domination of the AFC West continues....
Although I agree that Denver management does not want to win this game, these teams do not like each other.
Mahomes will be trying to show what he has but throwing to who? and handing off to who? More than likely KC will keep the play calling very vanilla and T.Hill and K.Hunt won't see much if any action.
If this game was in KC I could maybe support your argument. With the game being in Denver and guys still trying to "keep" their jobs(including the coach) this Denver D will do what it can to not let a rookie QB in his 1st start come in and get his 1st win in their building.
This is a very hard game to cap for all of those reasons but backing a KC team locked in the 4 seed is not the time for a large bet.
Good luck.
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Although I agree that Denver management does not want to win this game, these teams do not like each other.
Mahomes will be trying to show what he has but throwing to who? and handing off to who? More than likely KC will keep the play calling very vanilla and T.Hill and K.Hunt won't see much if any action.
If this game was in KC I could maybe support your argument. With the game being in Denver and guys still trying to "keep" their jobs(including the coach) this Denver D will do what it can to not let a rookie QB in his 1st start come in and get his 1st win in their building.
This is a very hard game to cap for all of those reasons but backing a KC team locked in the 4 seed is not the time for a large bet.
Although I agree that Denver management does not want to win this game, these teams do not like each other.
Mahomes will be trying to show what he has but throwing to who? and handing off to who? More than likely KC will keep the play calling very vanilla and T.Hill and K.Hunt won't see much if any action.
If this game was in KC I could maybe support your argument. With the game being in Denver and guys still trying to "keep" their jobs(including the coach) this Denver D will do what it can to not let a rookie QB in his 1st start come in and get his 1st win in their building.
This is a very hard game to cap for all of those reasons but backing a KC team locked in the 4 seed is not the time for a large bet.
Good luck.
Yup
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Quote Originally Posted by JuicedUp:
Although I agree that Denver management does not want to win this game, these teams do not like each other.
Mahomes will be trying to show what he has but throwing to who? and handing off to who? More than likely KC will keep the play calling very vanilla and T.Hill and K.Hunt won't see much if any action.
If this game was in KC I could maybe support your argument. With the game being in Denver and guys still trying to "keep" their jobs(including the coach) this Denver D will do what it can to not let a rookie QB in his 1st start come in and get his 1st win in their building.
This is a very hard game to cap for all of those reasons but backing a KC team locked in the 4 seed is not the time for a large bet.
Don't forget about player incentives. Some of those players could have millions on the line depending on their stats. I guess KC does have the better Coach and that means something, along with the better QB. Denver does have a great defense. It is hard for me to grasp a coach telling his players to tank a game for draft picks. How do you think they go about it? Or do they all just sorta know
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Don't forget about player incentives. Some of those players could have millions on the line depending on their stats. I guess KC does have the better Coach and that means something, along with the better QB. Denver does have a great defense. It is hard for me to grasp a coach telling his players to tank a game for draft picks. How do you think they go about it? Or do they all just sorta know
Last week of the year, guys resting up for the playoffs, bench players inserted to see what they got to offer, players playing to not get hurt and it's your "largest bet of your life".
Seriously?
FYI: As of today the Broncos pick 6th. They could move to 4th with a loss and wins by both the Bucs (vs Saints) and Texans (Colts)
A win this week puts them anywhere from 6th to 11th. Most likely 11th as some poor teams would need to also win to keep them closer to 6.
Good luck with your largest bet of your life.
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Last week of the year, guys resting up for the playoffs, bench players inserted to see what they got to offer, players playing to not get hurt and it's your "largest bet of your life".
Seriously?
FYI: As of today the Broncos pick 6th. They could move to 4th with a loss and wins by both the Bucs (vs Saints) and Texans (Colts)
A win this week puts them anywhere from 6th to 11th. Most likely 11th as some poor teams would need to also win to keep them closer to 6.
Although I agree that Denver management does not want to win this game, these teams do not like each other.
Mahomes will be trying to show what he has but throwing to who? and handing off to who? More than likely KC will keep the play calling very vanilla and T.Hill and K.Hunt won't see much if any action.
If this game was in KC I could maybe support your argument. With the game being in Denver and guys still trying to "keep" their jobs(including the coach) this Denver D will do what it can to not let a rookie QB in his 1st start come in and get his 1st win in their building.
This is a very hard game to cap for all of those reasons but backing a KC team locked in the 4 seed is not the time for a large bet.
Good luck.
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!
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Quote Originally Posted by JuicedUp:
Although I agree that Denver management does not want to win this game, these teams do not like each other.
Mahomes will be trying to show what he has but throwing to who? and handing off to who? More than likely KC will keep the play calling very vanilla and T.Hill and K.Hunt won't see much if any action.
If this game was in KC I could maybe support your argument. With the game being in Denver and guys still trying to "keep" their jobs(including the coach) this Denver D will do what it can to not let a rookie QB in his 1st start come in and get his 1st win in their building.
This is a very hard game to cap for all of those reasons but backing a KC team locked in the 4 seed is not the time for a large bet.
No, I don't believe Denver will be "tanking". I believe that Denver will play hard, but at a certain point when Mahomes is having success and Lynch is not, that the Broncos will just naturally know they won't win. This will happen when Lynch does what he always does: nothing.
The defense will play hard, no doubt. Will they get any support? I don't think so.
Tyreke Hill won't play, likely. But D'Anthony Thomas will. Kareem Hunt won't play, likely (although he IS 13 yards short of the rushing title), but Charcandrick West and Akeem Hunt are capable. Travis Kelce won't play, but that #84 has not shown me anything but promise as a solid backup.
In general, concerns over the sittings are valid. However, 53 players on an NFL team, 47 on an active roster, cannot all sit. Many players must play. I doubt any O Line sit. Houston will sit, but Zombo won't. Ragland won't. Dee Ford won't.
In the end, I see the Chiefs having too much juice in even their backups than the Denver Offense under Lynch has a hope of countering.
Hope you all have a great Week 17, for me, my plays will be limited to two: KC +3.5, KC ML.
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Thanks for the thoughts from everyone.
A couple of responses:
No, I don't believe Denver will be "tanking". I believe that Denver will play hard, but at a certain point when Mahomes is having success and Lynch is not, that the Broncos will just naturally know they won't win. This will happen when Lynch does what he always does: nothing.
The defense will play hard, no doubt. Will they get any support? I don't think so.
Tyreke Hill won't play, likely. But D'Anthony Thomas will. Kareem Hunt won't play, likely (although he IS 13 yards short of the rushing title), but Charcandrick West and Akeem Hunt are capable. Travis Kelce won't play, but that #84 has not shown me anything but promise as a solid backup.
In general, concerns over the sittings are valid. However, 53 players on an NFL team, 47 on an active roster, cannot all sit. Many players must play. I doubt any O Line sit. Houston will sit, but Zombo won't. Ragland won't. Dee Ford won't.
In the end, I see the Chiefs having too much juice in even their backups than the Denver Offense under Lynch has a hope of countering.
Hope you all have a great Week 17, for me, my plays will be limited to two: KC +3.5, KC ML.
2 dimes actually, people have diff unit sizes and this might be a 20unit play for him. Personally i like the play, buy when everyone else is scared. Im sure both teams will play hard because they're playing to pad their stats and backups trying to earn a spot next year. However I've seen enough from Mahomes to back him over lynch
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2 dimes actually, people have diff unit sizes and this might be a 20unit play for him. Personally i like the play, buy when everyone else is scared. Im sure both teams will play hard because they're playing to pad their stats and backups trying to earn a spot next year. However I've seen enough from Mahomes to back him over lynch
I agree that this is a great pick, but I will avoid saying "free money" ... I think Denver will play 3rd and 4th stringers, the water boy, and the trainer, and grab that 4th spot! LOL ... even my system likes the Chiefs +3.5 ... oh no you say, that is the kiss of death! LOL
Good luck!
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I agree that this is a great pick, but I will avoid saying "free money" ... I think Denver will play 3rd and 4th stringers, the water boy, and the trainer, and grab that 4th spot! LOL ... even my system likes the Chiefs +3.5 ... oh no you say, that is the kiss of death! LOL
While I agree that Mahomes is the better QB to have moving forward, im not sold he is the better QB right now. He is still making his first start in an actual game vs a capable D (if they are all playing) on the road @ a mile high. Also are you sure that all the coaching staff and current players give a damn about a draft pick? Many guys are playing for contracts and this is their last chance of the year to make a statement. Do you think Vance is coming back next year? So many questions to answer about this game.
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While I agree that Mahomes is the better QB to have moving forward, im not sold he is the better QB right now. He is still making his first start in an actual game vs a capable D (if they are all playing) on the road @ a mile high. Also are you sure that all the coaching staff and current players give a damn about a draft pick? Many guys are playing for contracts and this is their last chance of the year to make a statement. Do you think Vance is coming back next year? So many questions to answer about this game.
Paxton Lynch: converted option QB who literally rarely threw a pass until college. Questions abound as to his mental ability to handle the position. Seen crying on national television for long stretches during the Raider game. Never played a game with more than one scoring drive, and has never won or covered a game in his professional career.
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Paxton Lynch: converted option QB who literally rarely threw a pass until college. Questions abound as to his mental ability to handle the position. Seen crying on national television for long stretches during the Raider game. Never played a game with more than one scoring drive, and has never won or covered a game in his professional career.
Akeem Hunt and West are both questionable. Hill sitting. Hunt and Kelce probably also sit. They might get Hunt his 14 yards. A rookie qb making his first start against the denver D in denver. No thank you.
Lynch is not a better option but if i had to pick it would be the Denver D at home vs a rookie qb making his first start without his top playmakers.
I'll pass
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Akeem Hunt and West are both questionable. Hill sitting. Hunt and Kelce probably also sit. They might get Hunt his 14 yards. A rookie qb making his first start against the denver D in denver. No thank you.
Lynch is not a better option but if i had to pick it would be the Denver D at home vs a rookie qb making his first start without his top playmakers.
Dee Ford has been out since Dec 10th, you wrote above that he won't sit.
There are now 4 guys listed questionable with illness...an educated guess would be the flu.
Benny Logan downgraded to doubtful with a knee.
So many moving pieces here.
Lastly, I never understood risking the same amount of $ on the spread and ML. If you go 1-1 your still juicing out on the -110. Need to assess the risk/reward there.
Best of Luck
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I don't know about this one porc....
Dee Ford has been out since Dec 10th, you wrote above that he won't sit.
There are now 4 guys listed questionable with illness...an educated guess would be the flu.
Benny Logan downgraded to doubtful with a knee.
So many moving pieces here.
Lastly, I never understood risking the same amount of $ on the spread and ML. If you go 1-1 your still juicing out on the -110. Need to assess the risk/reward there.
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