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Largest Bet of my life on KC +3.5

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Posted: #26
Good Luck with your big bets! Chiefs are tempting. The line is currently +5 and I want to see how it moves tomorrow before kick off.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

I don't know about this one porc....

Dee Ford has been out since Dec 10th, you wrote above that he won't sit.

There are now 4 guys listed questionable with illness...an educated guess would be the flu.

Benny Logan downgraded to doubtful with a knee.

So many moving pieces here.

Lastly, I never understood risking the same amount of $ on the spread and ML. If you go 1-1 your still juicing out on the -110. Need to assess the risk/reward there.

Best of Luck

I agree with Sac on this.  If you shop 2-3 books, I'm sure you'll notice that playing the ATS wager is EVEN money right now.  Why not take your points and not lay any juice?  Greed for a ML hit?  Possible.  GL with your play.  I"m only wagering on teams that have playoff hopes/seeding, etc.   
 
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Posted: #28

6 point teaser is a for sure bet

vikins -3

ravens -6

won Ohio State, penn state and Wisconsin all over the weeekend. 

Go big ten 7-0 

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

Paxton Lynch: converted option QB who literally rarely threw a pass until college. Questions abound as to his mental ability to handle the position. Seen crying on national television for long stretches during the Raider game. Never played a game with more than one scoring drive, and has never won or covered a game in his professional career.

Started, won and covered LY at Jax and came in when Siemian got injured in 2Q vs TB and threw for 170 and a TD in basically a half. At least he's had SOME game action. By no means is he a stud and I'm not on Denver, but can't see backing a rookie QB making his 1st start with so many weapons resting either.

 
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Posted: #30

Very small play on this one for me and I'm gonna listen to the Vegas winds, and the number of folks on the board taking K.C....No, not the best way to cap a game, but sometimes the line speaks too loudly too avoid...Count me in on the Pony People, small.

 
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Posted: #31
Only definite OUTS for KC.

12/29/17DLBennie LoganKneeis downgraded to doubtful Sunday vs Denver
12/29/17WRTyreek HillPersonalis OUT Sunday vs Denver
12/29/17LBTamba HaliKneeis "?" Sunday vs Denver
12/29/17TETravis KelceRestis doubtful Sunday vs Denver
12/27/17QBPatrick MahomesNonehas been named the starter Sunday vs Denver
12/15/17OLMitch MorseFootIR
12/11/17SSteven TerrellUndisclosedIR
12/08/17LBDee FordBackIR
10/09/17WRChris ConleyAchillesIR
09/08/17DBEric BerryAchillesIR
09/07/17DBAshton LampkinACLIR
08/30/17RBSpencer WareKneeIR
07/30/17LBDadi NicolasKneePUP
 
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Posted: #32
Spread down to 3 now 
 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

Cant disagree with this pick. What do the Broncos have to play for this season? Absolutely Nothing. Might as well get a better draft positioning. I could see KC trying to give Andy Reid another double digit win season just because 10-6 sounds better than 9-7 and Reid is def an egomaniac kind. Patrick Mahomes look good in preseason and he is def the better QB going into this game. KC's domination of the AFC West continues....

 

Pride!

 
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Posted: #34
Some heavy steam now on KC
 
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Posted: #35
but the Broncos of all teams should know they would have gotten Prescott if Dallas took Lynch ahead of them and in the 4th round!!

moving up guarantees NOTHING...

ask teams that took QB's above Brady...
 
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Posted: #36
Broncos denver-2.5 OT wins $$$$  Broncos 24-19 probably start Brock Osweiler $$$$$ 
 
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Posted: #37
Who's Denver resting.  

NFL is all about timing. One or two players can be replaced. When you rest the starters and have starters who have been injured all year. I don't see how you win with a rookie QB in a rival game in MILE HIGH. 

I'm a huge KC fan, however it's hard to bet on the road team with this scenario. KC defense has come around the last couple of weeks. Unless DEN is resting their players NO WAY in HELL KC wins this game.  

TOO MUCH PRIDE IN DEN TO LAY DOWN FOR A 4TH OVERALL PICK.

AND I BET NO ONE IN THIS FORUM CAN TELL ME WHO THE TOP 2 QB'S COMING OUT OF COLLEGE OUTSIDE BAKER MAYFIELD AND HE'S OVERRATED TO ME.

gl
 
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Posted: #38
I like your angles. But if KC sits the play makers. What do you have? You have a rookie QB in his first start with a bunch of scrubs. Hill already out. If Kelce and Hunt play sparingly.........
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by imsoti8:

Who's Denver resting.  

NFL is all about timing. One or two players can be replaced. When you rest the starters and have starters who have been injured all year. I don't see how you win with a rookie QB in a rival game in MILE HIGH. 

I'm a huge KC fan, however it's hard to bet on the road team with this scenario. KC defense has come around the last couple of weeks. Unless DEN is resting their players NO WAY in HELL KC wins this game.  

TOO MUCH PRIDE IN DEN TO LAY DOWN FOR A 4TH OVERALL PICK.

AND I BET NO ONE IN THIS FORUM CAN TELL ME WHO THE TOP 2 QB'S COMING OUT OF COLLEGE OUTSIDE BAKER MAYFIELD AND HE'S OVERRATED TO ME.

gl


Rosen
Darnold
Allen

In that order. Mayfield isnt even in the top 3. Why? Because he is a midget.
 
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Posted: #40
Just a thought ... Mahomes will be in the division for years to come.  Would think the Denver defense would like to set the stage for the future against him.  Good luck with your bet ... Go Chiefs!
 
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Posted: #41
KC NEEDS TO WIN BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN  INCONSISTANT ALL YEAR

IT IS NOT ABOUT SAVING FOR THE PLAYOFFS, IT IS THE SPIRT OF WINNING LIKE PATRIOTS

WINNING BREEDS WINNING

GL
 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

It is what it is. When we see a line that is not right, you only get one opportunity on it.    I will roll with Patrick Mahomes over Paxton Lynch. I know who is sitting, I don't care. The Chiefs are going to win.    Also, chew on this for a moment if you will....   The Broncos will pick 4th overall if they lose, they could fall as low as 11th if they win.    You know why the Broncos need that pick so badly?   To pick a QB because Paxton Lynch is awful.    In KC, if you look at the cap, Alex Smith is unlikely to return next year. Believe it. You know who they will be bringing in? Hotshot Patrick Mahomes.    It's a no brainer for me. This is one of those situations where, if I lose, so be it. I see this as an incredibly likely scenario for KC to win straight up.    $1,000 wins $909 KC +3.5 $1,000 wins $1,700 (+170) KC Moneyline.

 

Great call bud!!!

 
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Posted: #43
Nice call pf. Congrats!
 
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Posted: #44
Congratulations, PF.  You nailed it.
 
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Posted: #45
fantastic job porcelainfist!!! great job! awesome to see people making that call and it working out! enjoy it!


 
 
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Posted: #46

Thanks to everybody here for their insight as well. Even if you were on Denver you had good intentions I'm sure. 

 

Without that Fumble when Mahomes went out, this game was literallty a walk away. Loved that Mahomes had to come back in. 

 

Sorry for the bit about Dee Ford, obviously I should have said Frank Zombo. 

 

Well this was a great start, get me fat for the playoffs. Boys, I don't always hit, but when you guys give me this type of response, the win sure is sweet! Thanks to all, even the Faders. Ice up. Win some lose some. 

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