Congrats to all Houston backers...very nice call on your part...
Moving forward with first reactions and gut reviews after first looking at last week's record on first reactions...
11-3
.......*sigh*......
Now, don't get me wrong...I had another great week up over 8k in the pros...but if I had played my leans and stuck with them instead of changing my mind, it would have been an over $15k day easily...
Onward and upward...
N.O. -7 at Dallas ...O/U 53...
I'm not going to think too hard about this one...yes, Dallas has made some progress on offense and is playing much better the last few games...however, they just are not in the same class as the Saints...Saints offense is top 3 in the league...defense has been improving as well holding the 7th ranked DVOA offense of Atlanta to 26 rushing yards last week...the Cowboys have some injury concerns in the O line this week as well at LGuard...the Saints win comfortably and cover this one...
Indy -4.5 at Jacksonville...O/U 47.5...
The hapless Jags are now 0-7 in their last 7 after starting out 3-1...Bortles benched this week for Cody Kessler...won't help them much in my view...Fournette is suspended for this game and he is what gives them any chance of winning the game...Indy takes this one comfortably with the ATS cover...
LA Chargers at Pittsburgh -3.5...O/U 51.5...
The Chargers Melvin Gordon has a sprained MCL (knee ligament) and is day to day...key injury that could affect the game big time...watch his status for any play on this game...the Steelers were sunk by 4 turnovers in Denver...the story of their season, turnovers...Denver was +6, Pittsburgh -7 going into that game...-11 coming out..Chargers are +4 this week, Pittsburgh is -11 now...these teams are almost identical in DVOA EXCEPT special teams where the Chargers are worst in the league at 32nd, Steelers at 21st...if Gordon plays, I would lean to taking the points and that big turnover margin...
Carolina -3.5 at T.B. ...O/U 56.5...
The Bucs have a league worst -21 turnover differential...and bottom 5 in DVOA...the Panthers now rank 15th in DVOA despite their 3 game losing streak...not dwelling on this much but the Panthers SHOULD take care of business here vs a very bad team but as I have said MANY times, you can never tell if Superman Cam or squirrel Cam comes to play...hate betting on Carolina games in general...lean Carolina...
Baltimore at Atlanta PK...O/U 49....
Game opened at Baltimore -2.5...but is now PK at Pinnacle and 5 Dimes..other shops in the Ravens -1 to -2 range...the line variation is due to the status of Flacco and who starts at QB this week for the Ravens..I'm thinking Jackson gets the start again as hip problems generally don't heal quickly in older QBs...the Falcons have a shot to win this game as the line indicates but if Jackson starts, I like the Ravens...
Cleveland at Houston -4.5...O/U 45...
The Browns dominated a decimated Bengals defense last week but will find the going harder vs the Texans and their 8-0 winning streak...I was not a believer but I am coming around now especially in this spot vs the Browns...surprisingly, the Browns have a +14 turnover differential, good for 2nd best in the league...liking Houston and the UNDER here...
Buffalo at Miami -4.5...O/U 40....
Line opened at -7, some shops down at -4 now...I expect this to go lower during the week so if you like the Dolphins just wait..Dolphins with HUGE advantages all over DVOA metrics and turnover margin...UNDER is an obvious play with both defenses ranking high...I would take the Dolphins here to cover as Josh Allen will probably turnover the ball a time or two in this one...
Chicago -4.5 at NYG...O/U 45...
Lots of books don't have lines on this game and not sure why...Bears starter will be Chase Daniels and Giants will go with Eli again from all I have been reading...Daniels was very good last week and the Bears D is the real deal...just don't see the Giants putting up many points in this one...strong lean Bears and UNDER...
Denver -3.5 at Cincinnati...O/U 42.5...
The Broncos have posted back to back wins vs high level competition and seem to be finding their stride...Bengals, not so much...no need to think about this one for long with Andy Dalton out this week and maybe for the season...Broncos cover easily vs the Bengals...
LA Rams -10 at Detroit...O/U 54.5...
The Lions have been averaging 16 ppg over their last 5 and that won't be improving here...expect them to score 13 to 17 here and the Rams 30 to 40...Huge advantages in every DVOA category and turnover margin for Rams...easy cover if these go according to form...
Arizona at G.B. -14...O/U 44.5...
The Cardinals are a league worst 32nd in DVOA with the Packers at 8th...surprising the Pack is still that high to me...if the Cardinals have any chance to cover this game they must win the turnover battle...with the Packers declining defense, the OVER is what I lean to here...
K.C. -14.5 at Oakland...O/U. 55.5...
Expect a blowout similar to the Rams 33-13 win vs the Raiders early in the year, if not worse...nuff said...
NYJs at Tennessee -10.5...O/U 41...
The JETS QB situation is up in the air for this week...if Darnold plas, I like the points...if McCown plays, I like the Titans..simple as that...
Minnesota at N.E. -6...O/U 48.5...
These two teams are very close in DVOA with the Vikings having a significant advantage on DEFENSE...I anticipate a close game and like the points here...would like them a LOT more at +7 or more in a teaser...leaning UNDER as well...
S.F. at Seattle -10...O/U 46...
Seattle with big DVOA advantages across the board and a HUGE advantage in turnover differential at +17 vs -8...hard to see the 49ers holding up in this game...Seattle big here...
Washington at Philly -6.5...O/U 44...
The Redskins have moderate advantages in DVOA vs the Eagles and a decent turnover margin advantage...they still have big problems on the OLine and Colt McCoy looked mighty vulnerable in throwing 3 interceptions vs Dallas last week...the Eagles had another week to get their defensive secondary in order...and they figured out something very important, they HAVE to run the ball to help their defense...I expect them to play better this week and befuddle McCoy and get the win and cover...
When I finished writing this...I was choking on so much chalk I had to go get a big drink...
I need
...
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