Let's Discuss Broncos @ Raiders

Has anyone else noticed that it is taking Manning almost a full HALF to find his rhythm with his receivers over the last few weeks especially? Almost a regression from the groove they were in from Week 5-9.

I cut him some slack vs. a couple of good secondaries but this week he had # 32 ranked TB without Wright and he was still abysmal for almost a full half. He does not trust Decker for the last 4 weeks now and unless he is trailing good teams who came out flying they will not have to fight to bounce back.

Additionally his defense is now ranked 4th overrall (3rd in fantasy pts). which takes pressure off of him.

He already blew these guys out at home earlier this year but its always different 2nd time you meet a divisional rival and now they are laying way more points and on the ROAD.

He defs steps up on prime time games but the cardinal rule is to take points of this magnitude (DD) WITH A HOME DOG in a divisional rival game.

I'd also like to point out that TWICE DENVER has been back doored as 8.5 chalk this year ( SD and TB)

Addendum: The more I look at this game; OAK is money.

Run DMC waiting the extra 5 days to come back with fresh legs.

The emotion of Coach Allen's father's death

Home dogs of 8+ are over 90% the L3 seasons.

The rare prime time games at this stadium always see this place rock off the charts let alone a div. rival who travels on a short week as DD road chalk and already has their div. wrapped...need I say anymore.

Oh yes...put some on the ML as well!!

littlevoice,

I had CLE as one of my top picks last week and had the score 19-17 so I was damn close.

My reasoning for CLE was based on the fact that they had just taken PIT down w/ 8 turnovers, lost a heartbreaker in OT to DAL where they sacked Romo 7 X and they had beaten SD 7-6 in Hurrricane Sandy horizontal rains.

The game last week in Oakland was supposed to be a mudbowl and the field was definite churned to mud by game's end but the incessant rain expected all day stopped early. CLE had played in that weather more than any team this year and I thought their 'D" alone would cause much more havoc and turnovers than they did.

CLE has been playing hard and .543 ball since week 5 and I believe that  was their 1st road win in 12 attempts.

But let's FF to this week and its a whole 'nother landscape and this game sets up beautifully for OAK and for the many reasons cited.

Add this note:

Denver had the toughest schedule in the league for the 1st 8 games and then it switched to the easiest for the back 8 (vs. .343 opp).

When you get this type of extreme change-up you also get linesmakers overvaluing the hot team and we have see that the last  3 of 4 weeks where SD and TB have covered 8.5 spreads.

Public sees OAK lose to what is perceived to be by many as "lowly" CLE squad and DEN   t.c.o.b. as usual. This fueled the line by prolly 1.5 pts.( imagine DEN would be 14.5 at home)

Quote Originally Posted by FinesFan:

Sorry for the lenght, but here's how i see it  :

The biggest motivation comes from Oakland. When you are playing your 3 division rivals within 4 weeks, the ONE that you reallllllly want to beat, is the top seat. Also, Denver clinched last week, it's kind of a hangover game for them, less motivation going thru this one AND they play a potential playoff rival in Baltimore next week.

I never love playing on a DD favorite team on the ROAD, especially on a divisional game. If there's one game in hell where Raider's fans will get loud and crazy, it's this one.

Also, from what we saw of the Denver Broncos since Willis got hurt, the Offense is less very well balance. I think what was killing this Oakland's Defense was his vulnerability against the run, which allowed opponants to make a lot of play-action against them. I don't think this will happen a lot thursday since Peyton doesn't seem to like laying on Moreno to grind the field. 

BUT, Denver leads in TO for and OAK leads in TO against. Denver also leads in Sacks for, way over league's average, and they lead in Sacks against, way under league's average. While Oakland is sacking less than the average and get sacked as much as the average of all teams.

Peyton is way more consistent than Carson Palmer, but with McFadden back in the line-up and Wesley Woodyard probably out for Denver, i believe this game will goes :

DEN 24 OAK 17  

BOL

I see all the Raider Fans pounding their chests after slaughtering the Broncos tomorrow proclaiming they're going to the Super Bowl as a wild card team this year

Denver is not sitting down yet. They are playing for homefield and first round bye. Why you guys think oakland is the play, thank you! I will fade you all and take Denver to the house. Prime time game, Peyton wins by 2 touchdowns all day.

I told myself I'm done betting the Raiders 3 weeks ago after I took the +9 against Baltimore and they got blown out by 30 somthing points.

Then I lied to myself and backed them again +8.5 against the Bengals. Bad choice.

Finally learned my lesson and faded them big last week against the Browns and won.

Still not sure if I will play this game at all tomorrow. Perhaps the over/under, but as far as sides go, it will either be a fade of the Raiders or no play at all (as it will be for the remainder of the year).

On paper DEN should win by 3+ TDs. 

This season the Raiders were outscored by common opponents: 206-153 with a record of: 2-5 against them.  The Broncos outscored common opponents: 230-162 and have a record of: 7-1 against them.

OAK does indeed play better at home where they had 2 of their 3 wins this year.  I'm usually a dog bettor regardless of home vs. away (especially on big spreads), but I think OAK is just outclassed here.

I'm taking DEN minus 10.5.  Staying away from O/U though, but if I was forced to bet, I'd take UNDER - I don't think OAK is going to score much.

I like 10 pts for sure but to add a 1/2 pt basically means two td's. but honestly radiers are dead sorry and not consistient at all and they might get blowed out. palmer is a time bomb for interceptions and i dont feel confortable puting my money on him... but with that being siad Radiers are due for a luck game where they are firing on all cylinders and keep a game competitive like when they played Atl 20-23 or when they beat Pit 34-31. but i think if radiers get behind it will be a wrap because palmer can not play from behind