LETS TALK - Chiefs vs Raiders

oh I wasn't aware of that

"failed to cover" means something here

Global warming!

This is an interesting matchup for the simple fact that these two teams have magic behind them.

KC wins games. Plain and simple. They stumbled a couple times but those losses felt more like random incidents than the business as usual day for them.

Oakland owns the fourth quarter... Nothing else to say about that fact. A couple times is a fluke, this is the norm and I think it's because of the OL play. In the trenches, the raiders are fun to watch. These guys are tough.

Motivation looks like a wash to me. Both teams want to win this badly. Plenty of distaste for each other. Plenty of heroics on both sides of the ball. I think the tipping factors will be the cold and the home field advantage. I'm leaning KC but maybe I will only play the first half.

GLTA!

I think KC ml is the play here. Raiders probably cover the +3 but lose out right.

As a guy who works a lot with numbers, I can tell you that both the Chiefs and Raiders are overachieving this year in terms of their W/L record. This is not hating, this is pure math. Sometimes these teams keep overachieving, but at some point the downfall comes, mostly in the playoffs against an overall sound team.

There is one simple statement that sums my statement up: Good teams win big and lose small. You can go back to the conference championship teams of the last 10 years, set limits and will find out that this applies to the majority of the teams.

The Raiders don't have a defense, the offense keeps baiting them out. Usually doesn't work well in the playoffs.

Over the last five games, the Chiefs have had the following offensive output:

Jaguars: 19 points (longest scoring drive was 38 yards)
Panthers: 13 points (no TD)
Bucs: 17 points (1 TD in garbage time, KC had 10/3 pass/run)
Broncos: 14 points (last second TD with 14/0 pass/run)
Falcons: 13 points

So the Chiefs went 4-1 SU but scored an average of 15.2 PPG by themselves. Would be interesting if there ever was a team going 4-1 over 5 games while scoring just 15.2 PPG by themselves.

Last year the Broncos won their games in equal fashion, but there was one big difference: their defense was leading the league in almost every important efficiency metric. The Chiefs defense?

21st in yards per play (5.7)
13th in total DVOA (-3.4%)
11th in pass DVOA (1.3%)
17th in rush DVOA (-9.7%)
23rd in NYPPA (6.7)
25th in yards per rush (4.6)
11th in PPG scoring defense (20.2)

So the offense and defense of the Chiefs havn't been better than average, but they are 9-3. How is this possible? Two reasons: 1) soft schedule 2) 'lucky circumstances'. Creating turnovers is a quality, but the result (field position / return TDs) of turnovers is completely random. The Chiefs are getting 15.7% of their total points via defense and special teams - it's gonna be tough to sustain that.

The Falcons are a good offense with a good OL and passing game. They scored 28 offensive points on the Chiefs but the Chiefs covered due to 16 points by defense and special teams.

Last time the Chiefs were off a bye, where Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in the league. This time it's a short week for both teams.

There is one simple statement that sums it up: Good teams win big and lose small. You can go back to the conference championship teams of the last 10 years, set limits and will find out that this applies to the majority of the teams. Good teams have good scoring differentials. The Pythagorean win expectation is a formula that describes how many games a team should have won based on simple 'points for' and 'points against':

(Points For ^2.37 / (Points For ^2.37 + Points Against ^2.37)) * Games Played

Chiefs (9-3): 7.1 wins

Raiders (10-3): 7.0 wins

The only mathematical problem with the pythagorean expectation is that it doesn't account for defensive or special teams TDs. The Chiefs have scored 15.7% of their points via defense and special teams, so that number is still flawed. I took Offensive Points Scored and Opponent Offensive Points Scored from teamrankings.com which reduces 'Points For' & 'Points Against' by defensive and special teams TDs, this gives us a better number for the pure points for each side. I ran the pythagorean expectation again:

Chiefs (9-3): 5.8 wins

Raiders (10-3): 6.7 wins

So both teams' record is atleast 3 games above what its supposed to be at.

Here are the next four most-overachieving teams based on the 'Pure Points Pythagorean Expectation':

Cowboys (11-1): 8.4 wins

Giants (8-4): 5.7 wins

Lions (8-4): 6.0 wins

Dolphins (7-5): 5.0 wins

Did you even watch the game?

They had two scoring drives in 60 minutes.

Teams with <= 220 passing yards & >=44 attempts in a game:

SU: 21-165-1

They have beaten all odds in that game. Their 3.9 NYPPA in that game was way below Blake Bortles' season average.

Continued:

passing yards <=220 and passes >=44 and o:points>=24

SU: 4-108-0
ATS: 8-103-1

3 other teams of 112 teams won a game with the CHiefs' passing output while the other team got 24+ points. That was big time hocus pocus by KC.

The Chiefs have the best starting field position of all teams (30.5 yd line) and scored 19.7 offensive PPG which ranks 22nd in the league.

This per definition is INcompetent.

They have beaten the Saints at home 27-21, They beat the Colts 30-14  on the road, They beat the Raiders 26-10 on the road and beat the Broncos on the road scoring 24 points in 4 quarters, This notion that the Chiefs offense is mediocre and that they need to win games 17-14 off the back of their defense is a myth.

No offense, but you have to do your homework when claiming something to be a myth. Copied from myself:

Over the last five games, the Chiefs have had the following offensive output:

Jaguars: 19 points (longest scoring drive was 38 yards)
Panthers: 13 points (no TD)
Bucs: 17 points (1 TD in garbage time, KC had 10/3 pass/run)
Broncos: 14 points (last second TD with 14/0 pass/run)
Falcons: 13 points

So the Chiefs went 4-1 SU but scored an average of 15.2 PPG by themselves. Would be interesting if there ever was a team going 4-1 over 5 games while scoring just 15.2 PPG by themselves.

Against the mighty Saints defense, they needed a pick-six to get to 27 points.

If you take away defensive and special teams TDs, the Chiefs went 2-5 SU in their L7. So please don't tell me they don't need to win games off the back of their D/ST.

Did you bet on the Falcons or something? You seem to have an agenda against them. If you're on Oakland, You're on Oakland, No need to find ways to dismiss a good team. I will be on the Chiefs but i respect what Oakland is about, However this is the team that has their number. For me it's a statement game for the Chiefs on Thursday, And given how easily they dominated the Raiders in the first match up, I would be shocked if the Chiefs don't win this by 7+.

Chiefs should dominate raiders like they always do.  Reid is 6-1 vs raiders I believe.  Raiders have no defense.  Chiefs will slow it down and keep the ball on the ground.  Long drives!!!!  Carr freezing his @ss off on the sidelines while ground and pound on the field.  if raiders think Carr dropping back and passing is a good counter in that weather with that loud stadium they are wrong.  Great edge rushers, turnover proven secondary.  Just not a good matchup for them.  Chiefs players said yesterday on talk radio on this streak all the bumps and bruises have vanished and guys have more bounce in their step.  Take it for what it's worth.  If... and I mean if the raiders do win this game it will be the 3 games in 10 days vs great teams.  IMO chiefs win and cover this week and crash next week vs titans.  

This is a HUGE game for both teams, this isnt the same raider team from October that lost to kc, the weather isnt going to be as big of a factor as you all think, so relax......were not the pus sy 49ers

Maybe we should ignore the efforts by Defense and Special Teams, ignore a 4 point December home advantage for the Chiefs and just anoint the Raiders the victor this week, why bother even watching the game, its over!

Last 2 Raiders game below freezing both on the road:

Oakland is playing for top spot in their division and also to get that top seed in the post-season. My prediction is they will get it just because it's been wayyyyy too long for the fan base.