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Lines dictates the game....

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Posted: #26
Then it was 5 years ago 
 
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Posted: #27
Nope, at no time were they undefeated and Titans hadnt won a game and they played on a Thursday night. 
 
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Posted: #28
https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/results/2010-2011/boxscore27983.html



My mistake young was out and old man Kerry Collins started was the story.  There is the link 
 
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Posted: #29
How about cowboys Seattle playoffs Seattle -2.5 cowboys lose by 2 romo messes up the game winning fg hold 
 
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Posted: #30
Tb wash -1.5 they score td with 0 on the clock miss the extra point to tie the game and don't cover by .5 Vegas wins both ways, some games have their hands in the money bag all I'm saying 
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/results/2010-2011/boxscore27983.html



My mistake young was out and old man Kerry Collins started was the story.  There is the link 
Umm I know that game but you said the Colts were undefeated and that the TItans were winless, wrong and wrong.
 
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Posted: #32
https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/results/2010-2011/boxscore27990.html


After the game player was interviewed and said " the feeling on the sideline was he was going to miss" 


My bad I think colts I think undefeated was 3 years ago I forgot not about being right or wrong 
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:

I always feel like the lines dictates the game, and not the other way around. Way too many games end up being won just around the spread even tho the games are way way off the spread if u look playwise. 

its like all games are scripted, like literrally scripted, thats why it takes so long in between plays to set it up etc and that they have have 3 chances if they mess up so it ends out exactly like they want it to be. This is why i never bet on the NFL anymore. NEVER. And this has actually meant that i hate watching it too... coz i feel like they play "after the lines". So many games are very very very close to the spread, and i know that books are sharp, but it shouldnt be like books are like over-sharp, it feels like books are controlling the lines and not the game controlling the game. For example, funny how Ravens won oddly with EXACTLY those 8 points. 

I stopped betting NFL 1 year ago coz i felt like it was just getting too much with all this. But i always look at lines before a game and then i know what to expect. For example, before this week i predicted; Saints gonna win easy and Detroit are gonna win easy. Because Bucs looked like garbage the first week, couldnt even beat Jets and they looked really really bad. On the other hand, Saints looked good beating Falcons in what i consider a close game pre-hand. So i think Saints shouldnt have any problems winning with 2 touchdowns here. I know its a divisional game, but still in a spot like this Saints shouldnt have too many problems, they are simply just better and stronger. But when i saw this line..... I just knew something were up, i just knew Saints wouldnt totally blow them out of the field. Saints lead 13-7 now, so they can still cover the spread yeah, but thats not my point, my point is it seems like something is holding them back from smacking their fools, and it seems like it is this line that is doing it... Same thing is how i felt about Lions, i think they would beat Cardinals with 2 touchdowns as well, Lions looked good in week 1 against vikings despite a bad start of the game, and Cardinals looked horrible against Rams. So i thought to my self when i saw the line being even money... Something is up here.... Lions get ahead with 8 points, but they keep blowing field goals and missing them all over the place, and all calls going in the way of Cardinals. 

I know books are sharp, but they shouldnt be over sharp if u know what i mean, what kind of fun is there if we know the outcome of the game prehand or what kind of game it will be? Like, if the line is even money then we know that it will not be a blow out or that it will be atleast somewhat close? It just ruins the fun and entertainment for me that its almost dictated before the game has started what will happen. 

But to me, following the Lions game AFTER i saw the line just made me think that something fishy was up when lines were like that. 

I know Saints can still win like 20-7, but it still just seems wierd that the game is played like the line says its supposed to be played. 

Like in the Lions game, Lions should have won this game with 2-3 touchdowns, but we KNOW it wont happen when the line is like this. These "Too good to be true" lines just never wins. Im glad i dont bet, otherwise i would have been fucked over great time, (even tho i would have bet on Bills, lol - so i guess it would have evened out) but i consider starting to bet again and then i just bet on whatever seems too good to be true. Like today, Saints looked too good to be true, so i take Bucs with the spread + a few extra points to be sure, same thing with cardinals, take them + a few extra points to be sure and then just take it from there. 

Just quit gambling bro
 
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Posted: #34
If u don't think the game is "influenced" that's fine no problem by me I don't care I was answering the original post at first. Ido office pools and every week the team most of my pool takes almost never covers and it's always from a fishy call or play best of luck every one wish u all well 
 
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Posted: #35
Ive seen these type threads alot of times before, bettors tend to focus on the games that end up on or near the lines, but never mention the games where the games ended up 20, 30, and even more pts away from the line, like the Niners/Seahawks game tonight.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by jtoler:

Ive seen these type threads alot of times before, bettors tend to focus on the games that end up on or near the lines, but never mention the games where the games ended up 20, 30, and even more pts away from the line, like the Niners/Seahawks game tonight.


Biased reasoning not based on mathematics and probability. A deficit for most.
 
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Posted: #37
Ive seen these type threads alot of times before, bettors tend to focus on the games that end up on or near the lines, but never mention the games where the games ended up 20, 30, and even more pts away from the line, like the Niners/Seahawks game tonight.


that is y i picked games that ended in a 2 pt win when the spread was 2.5, blow outs normally happen when u think a game will be close.
sf seattle tonight perfect example two heavy weights LOL
 
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Posted: #38
Hey Boston, if your so keen on these lines then you should be rolling in dough?
Over 80% of NFL games the spread doesn't matter/come into effect. Pick the winner and you win the game, good luck!
 
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Posted: #39
THE BOOKS STUDY EACH TEAM AND COME UP WITH THE PERFECT SPREAD THAT WILL GET HALF THE PUBLIC TO BET ON ONE SIDE AND THE OTHER HALF TO BET ON THE OTHER SIDE. THAT IS IT!!!! ONCE THEY GET THE PUBLIC TO GO 50/50% THEY THEN COLLECT THE $10 FROM THE $110 U HAVE TO PUT UP TO WIN $100. THEY DONT KNOW THE OUTCOME, THEY DONT RIG THE OUTCOME, THEY SIMPLY COME UP WITH A SPREAD THAT COULD GET HALF THE PUBLIC ON ONE SIDE AND THE OTHER HALF ON THE OTHER SIDE. THAT IS WHY LINES CHANGE, BECAUSE TOO MUCH OF THE PUBLIC IS ON ONE SIDE, SO ITS CHANGING TO GET MORE PEOPLE ON THE OTHER SIDE. BUT....THATS Y U HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT, THEYRE TRYING TO FOOL THE PUBLIC BCZ THEY MAY BE MORE EDUCATED ABOUT THE UPCOMING GAME THAN THE PUBLIC, BUT THAT DOESNT NECESSARILY MEAN THAT THEY KNOW OUTCOME. 
ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GET ALL THE PLAYERS AND COACHES TO WORK TOGETHER TO FINISH THE GAME IN A DESIRED RESULT OTHER THEN TO TRY THEIR BEST AND WIN. DONT LET A STREAK OF BAD LUCH TARNISH UR LOVE FOR THE GAME DONT BE IGNORANT HERE PEOPLE, WAKE UP THIS IS FOOTBALL THE GAME WE GREW UP AROUND, AND INVOLVING MONEY IS A WAY FOR US TO MAKE THE GAME MATTER TO US LIKE IT DID WHEN WE WERE KIDS. LOVE THE GAME DONT HATE IT...BOL EVERYBODY.. LET'S GET THIS MONEY!! darn THE BOOKS LOL
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by BostonCelticFTW:

I always feel like the lines dictates the game, and not the other way around. Way too many games end up being won just around the spread even tho the games are way way off the spread if u look playwise. 

its like all games are scripted, like literrally scripted, thats why it takes so long in between plays to set it up etc and that they have have 3 chances if they mess up so it ends out exactly like they want it to be. This is why i never bet on the NFL anymore. NEVER. And this has actually meant that i hate watching it too... coz i feel like they play "after the lines". So many games are very very very close to the spread, and i know that books are sharp, but it shouldnt be like books are like over-sharp, it feels like books are controlling the lines and not the game controlling the game. For example, funny how Ravens won oddly with EXACTLY those 8 points. 

I stopped betting NFL 1 year ago coz i felt like it was just getting too much with all this. But i always look at lines before a game and then i know what to expect. For example, before this week i predicted; Saints gonna win easy and Detroit are gonna win easy. Because Bucs looked like garbage the first week, couldnt even beat Jets and they looked really really bad. On the other hand, Saints looked good beating Falcons in what i consider a close game pre-hand. So i think Saints shouldnt have any problems winning with 2 touchdowns here. I know its a divisional game, but still in a spot like this Saints shouldnt have too many problems, they are simply just better and stronger. But when i saw this line..... I just knew something were up, i just knew Saints wouldnt totally blow them out of the field. Saints lead 13-7 now, so they can still cover the spread yeah, but thats not my point, my point is it seems like something is holding them back from smacking their fools, and it seems like it is this line that is doing it... Same thing is how i felt about Lions, i think they would beat Cardinals with 2 touchdowns as well, Lions looked good in week 1 against vikings despite a bad start of the game, and Cardinals looked horrible against Rams. So i thought to my self when i saw the line being even money... Something is up here.... Lions get ahead with 8 points, but they keep blowing field goals and missing them all over the place, and all calls going in the way of Cardinals. 

I know books are sharp, but they shouldnt be over sharp if u know what i mean, what kind of fun is there if we know the outcome of the game prehand or what kind of game it will be? Like, if the line is even money then we know that it will not be a blow out or that it will be atleast somewhat close? It just ruins the fun and entertainment for me that its almost dictated before the game has started what will happen. 

But to me, following the Lions game AFTER i saw the line just made me think that something fishy was up when lines were like that. 

I know Saints can still win like 20-7, but it still just seems wierd that the game is played like the line says its supposed to be played. 

Like in the Lions game, Lions should have won this game with 2-3 touchdowns, but we KNOW it wont happen when the line is like this. These "Too good to be true" lines just never wins. Im glad i dont bet, otherwise i would have been fucked over great time, (even tho i would have bet on Bills, lol - so i guess it would have evened out) but i consider starting to bet again and then i just bet on whatever seems too good to be true. Like today, Saints looked too good to be true, so i take Bucs with the spread + a few extra points to be sure, same thing with cardinals, take them + a few extra points to be sure and then just take it from there. 

........sounds to me like you are simply not emotionally strong enough to accept the losing aspect of this biz.  Detach yourself from the outcome, if you are getting too emotionally involved, you will never succeed.

 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by inthetank:

I am a 66 year old guy and been on "both sides" of wagering for over 45 years.....So, I will speak from experience...And plenty of it.....Losing by half points at the end much, much more than u can ever imagine....I could go back and name you games, players, lines etc, that WERE ALL SHADY....You, Boston Celtic, are ahead of things already, but I don't know your age,,,,And indeed, IT IS CONTROLLED....If  you owned a multi-billion dollar business,like the NFL is, would you not want to have control over it??.....OF COURSE!.....THAT is why things are the way they are....If anyone tells you differently, THEY BELIEVE IN THE TOOTH FAIRY.....I once bet  game years ago taking "over" 35.5 as the total in a Sunday afternoon game....It was 35-0 at the half!....I was all smiles, butttttt, no score in the second half...Several drives inside the ten ended in fumbles....Hmmmm....Plus 4 missed field goals.....YOUR BEST BET IS TO DO WHAT YOU DO, AND IF IT'S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, GO OPPOSITE,,,,I have made and lost fortunes in the NFL.....If you took the gambling out of it, which is impossible, you would drop viewer watch by 70-80 percent....VEGAS is very, very smart.....IN THE LONG RUN, 94 PERCENT OF BETTORS LOSE AND "CHASE!".....I sort of do what you do, plus I have a guy who is a born loser, and I go opposite....Today, he LOVED N.O.....SEE!!!!!!!!.....I made 2 plays today, that one plus DENVER....Money dropped line way down on NYG at home....Many on forums, plus my pal, lovedddddddd the Giants.....I'm 2-0, and done till next week....I am not saying that every game etc, is controlled, buttttt,  many, many are, and you're on the right track in what you see.....Best of luck....

I am surprised you are 66 years old because along with that age should of come some valuable wisdom ..................which after reading your post is absolutely not there.

You are totally 100% WRONG.

Crazy s h I t happens in football.........ALWAYS HAS, ALWAYS WILL.

The NFL is a billion dollar biz, you are correct. The lengths that they(theNFL) go to, to insure the integrity of their games is insane(if you only new the half of it). Vegas played a HUGE/MASSIVE role in getting the league to the level of public interest it's at today. The NFL would not be as successful  today without vegas, plain and simple. The NFL needs the integrity and professionalism of the league to be ROCK SOLID so that the watchers/bettors believe in the product.............TRUST ME, I know what I'm talking about.

 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by inthetank:

I am a 66 year old guy and been on "both sides" of wagering for over 45 years.....So, I will speak from experience...And plenty of it.....Losing by half points at the end much, much more than u can ever imagine....I could go back and name you games, players, lines etc, that WERE ALL SHADY....You, Boston Celtic, are ahead of things already, but I don't know your age,,,,And indeed, IT IS CONTROLLED....If  you owned a multi-billion dollar business,like the NFL is, would you not want to have control over it??.....OF COURSE!.....THAT is why things are the way they are....If anyone tells you differently, THEY BELIEVE IN THE TOOTH FAIRY.....I once bet  game years ago taking "over" 35.5 as the total in a Sunday afternoon game....It was 35-0 at the half!....I was all smiles, butttttt, no score in the second half...Several drives inside the ten ended in fumbles....Hmmmm....Plus 4 missed field goals.....YOUR BEST BET IS TO DO WHAT YOU DO, AND IF IT'S TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, GO OPPOSITE,,,,I have made and lost fortunes in the NFL.....If you took the gambling out of it, which is impossible, you would drop viewer watch by 70-80 percent....VEGAS is very, very smart.....IN THE LONG RUN, 94 PERCENT OF BETTORS LOSE AND "CHASE!".....I sort of do what you do, plus I have a guy who is a born loser, and I go opposite....Today, he LOVED N.O.....SEE!!!!!!!!.....I made 2 plays today, that one plus DENVER....Money dropped line way down on NYG at home....Many on forums, plus my pal, lovedddddddd the Giants.....I'm 2-0, and done till next week....I am not saying that every game etc, is controlled, buttttt,  many, many are, and you're on the right track in what you see.....Best of luck....

You think there is corruption in the NFL because there were no points scored in the second half of a football game and thus your over never hit...

I could tell you carzier stuff than that......ya know what.........it's part of the game......THERE IS NO FIX happening.

The NFL does everything in it's power to keep corruption out of it's league.

 
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Posted: #43
Yeah, you're overthinking it.  Most of the games in the NFL end up being wild at times because teams are battling.  I barely won my larger play on the Falcons -6.5 today and hit a 4-team parlay from the Bills winning at the end of the game.  I don't think it got scripted that way.  Athletes just made plays and I got lucky.
 
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Posted: #44
Sinatra that big crazy font is filled with nonsense bro. Its not about studying teams to come up with a number thats not how its done and Im surprised I see 95% or more people who bet that dont know how the spread is made. People give "Vegas" way too much credit. I can tell you pretty much what every line is gonna be before it cones out but knowing that does nothing as far as picking winners.
 
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Posted: #45
No.
 
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Posted: #46
When I see a game like the Saints game today when a high powered offene struggles all game long against a far inferior team and then when it a minute left no timeouts they march right down the field with no problem to secure a win but don't cover it looks like some funny business, but I don't think these games are fixed it just how the games play out sometime with some out of the ordinary stuff happens and swings a game in a whole different direction.  Week 1 NE vs Buffalo, NE was well on the way to demolishing Buffalo and covering easy up 10-0 going in for another score then the RB fumbles a simple handoff Bills return it, now instead of 17-0 its 10-7, then they had a Receiver drop a pass and its picked bills score on the next play. Later on in the game Brady fumbles a snap on his touchdown qb sneak that he has done plenty of times with ease.   Now if we talking college ball or the NBA then we may have something but NFL I don't think so
 
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Posted: #47
IF U GUYS HAVE BEEN BETTING LONG ENOUGH, IT ONLY TAKE APPROX 5 MINUTES TO PICK A SIDE AND WAGER....VEGAS IS NOT TRYING TO FOOL US WITH LINES, THEY PUT A LINE OUT TO TRY AND GET 50/50 MONEY ON BOTH SIDES...I AGREE LINES DO LOOK FISHY SOMETIMES BUT EVERY WAGER U MAKE HAS A 50/50 CHANCE OF WINNING...NFL GAMES CAN GO EITHER WAY REGARDLESS OF SPREADS...EXAMPLES:

BAL-6.5 (WHY BET CLE PERIOD)
CAR-3 (WHAT HAVE THIS TEAM PROVE LATELY)
NYG +4.5 (PEYTON OWNS ELI/GIANTS)
N.O. -3 (NEW ORLEANS CAN'T PLAY ON GRASS)
PHI -8 ( WHEN WAS THE LAST GAME THEY WON @HOME)
SEA-3(AINT SAN FRAN THE BETTER TEAM.. HMMMM)
IND -pk(WOW ONLY A PICK EM GAME @ HOME)
GB-6.5 ( WHY SO HIGH AGAINST RG3, BECAUSE HE DON'T PLAY D)
ETC ETC..  


 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by jtoler:

Ive seen these type threads alot of times before, bettors tend to focus on the games that end up on or near the lines, but never mention the games where the games ended up 20, 30, and even more pts away from the line, like the Niners/Seahawks game tonight.

Thats exactly my point. Exactly. On paper Seahawks - 49'ers would be a really really close game, and TB - Saints shouldnt be close at all. But we just know the opposite will happen. No need to overthink it, just bet opposite when u can smell the fish. Thats what im going to do. Gonna start betting again on the fish. There are also games where i dont find anything fishy, and those games are probably not fixed either. They lot a lot of games roll, but there are also games where u just know they need to hit it on the money so that they make this extra profit.

Books will accept maybe 70% of the games where they are just happy with the juice, but then they also need 30% of the games to hit right around the spread so they nail the line and get MORE than juice. Coz vegas are greedy person. A multi million dollar business will always be rigged. Random things are not allowed to happen when u roll such a big business. 

Let me give you an example, 

Ravens - Browns opened @ +8.5 @ my bookie. People pounded the Ravens -8.5. The line then dropped to 7.5 and forced people to take the Browns. This way, both lines hit. And vegas NEEDS these games. They are happy that 70-75% end up being just juice for the books, but they need a few fixed games where they can make the big money, like Ravens - Browns, Cards - Lions, TB - Saints, Chiefs-Cowboys. If u dont think there are ANY rigged games. you are ONLY fooling yourself. Coz u cant fool me.

There are lots of games where i thought, ok i dont have any oppinion on this, i think its a pretty fair line. Thats how i felt about GB, Falcons etc. But among these games u can find the fishy ones, and those fishy ones are the one im gonna pick and then go opposite on them. 
 
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Posted: #49
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by kaboons:

Yup I had tb second half once I realized saints were "struggling" but once u think they are rigged and think u have an edge the game suddenly is kosher 

Advice. If u are going to bet never bet props parlays or be cute with adjusted lines take ur 50/50 and that's it 

I bet prop bet last night on first score to be a safety Paid out 50/1. So it aint always bad. Little risk for high rewards

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