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Lines dictates the game....

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HoldingXYZ

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 10:32 PM ET #951

If you think about it... With FULL, halfs, quarters,,games ,, parlays ectect that's alot of action and money to be made... Yes lines dictate games..

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BostonCelticFTW

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 10:33 PM ET #952

Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

That makes alot of sense... And line makers know bettors dont really play the fourth quarters... And when its a blowout like that i guess 4th quarter scoring is kinda meaningless,, if anything they dont want starters to get hurt...

Exactly, and if anything, the money will probably be pretty spread out 50/50 so that bookies will just take the juice. Maybe even a bit favor of the under, coz all the square betters be like "They cant hit anything.. Missing all shots and they blow offensively. This guy is 2/15 so this should be easy under 48.5" So its just a win/win.

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HoldingXYZ

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 10:39 PM ET #953

lol

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HoldingXYZ

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 10:53 PM ET #954

Boston,,

Well one thing i can almost guess,,, is the difference between the full game wagering and quarters and halfs... I think that's what you are trying to look for... Which ultimately remains the same,,, where the action is or if there is no action at all...

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BostonCelticFTW

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 10:59 PM ET #955

Quote Originally Posted by HoldingXYZ:

Boston,,

Well one thing i can almost guess,,, is the difference between the full game wagering and quarters and halfs... I think that's what you are trying to look for... Which ultimately remains the same,,, where the action is or if there is no action at all...

Yep, theres a great difference. Coz the "overall" line is dictated by something, the ingame lines are not since what bookies care about is the original line set out in the first place. They dont give a damn about the other lines. Ofc they will have focus on beating up a teaser here on there, but the pre-game line is in focus, therefore i believe its easier to cap in game lines that are not dictated by the game.

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HoldingXYZ

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 11:05 PM ET #956

Well as for halfs,, i usually go against the grain.. Works majority of the times.. I use to this hedge against the vig as small plays... Long term wise those vig will add up... And there's a million ways to allocate your cash flow.. Boston if you have this data its definetly worth exploring..

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BostonCelticFTW

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 11:21 PM ET #957

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HoldingXYZ

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 11:33 PM ET #958

Its the no action games that you have to look out for... Those are the ones to stay away from

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BostonCelticFTW

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Posted: Dec. 5, 2013 - 11:46 PM ET #959

I love how everyone hyped Derrick Rose and the return and such and expected Bulls to top the east. He played REALLY well in the pre season just to create even more hype. I visited Chicago and it was madness. Posters everywhere. EVERYWHERE. #TheReturn hashtag etc. i even asked other visitors of the town why they were in Chicago, they said, just because of the return they just wanted to be here to a couple of days. This holds strong brand value for the Chicago as a city as a whole, that they can hype this return garbage up in the media and create lots of buzz about it. Then, when Chicago comes in, in the first game... They got SMASHED. It was 2 teams on 2 completely different planets. And this shows that NBA is rigged. People EXPECT Chicago to be able to hang around with the Miami Heat here, and people expected chicago to be able to put on a big ball game. And then they get absolutely CRUSHED and absolutely DEMOLISHED. And now, without Rose, they are all of a sudden doing pretty damn well, and they dont even have Robinson to compensate. This shows how little players matter. They matter horse garbage in this rigging fest. How can a team, with a good player, get absolutely crushed, and then when they lose this player which obv. makes them even worse, they can all of a sudden get a huge win (or at least a huge lead as it is now)

Guys, we are talking about a difference of 50 points between the first heat game where Bulls were strong on paper, and then till now where Bulls are weak on paper. If this isnt fixed, rigged or anything, then i dont know what it is.

There is no logic. Theres supposed to be some kind of logic. But there is none. Absolutely zero.

In betting, what people expect to happen, almost never happens. AND WHEN IT DOES, then people will still be on the other side of the coin. For example, lets say people "expect" Saints to beat the Bills and beat them quiet comfortably, people will put money on the Saints if this play holds value. But, when Vegas then puts out a +14.5 line, then even betters and followers that BELIEVE saints will crush Bills, will place their money on +14.5 because the line is so high and that "Bills should be due for a cover since they are given a DD handicap"

We have many great examples of this. In this season in the NFL, Broncos were always due for a win, but all the time on the forums people faded them coz of the high lines, and then when Broncos started covering week after week after week, people had this feeling "they have to fail to cover soon" so people are over analyzing and overthinking their plays and overthinking what they THINK will happen in the first place or what they EXPECT to happen. People became so square, so that when the 27.5 jaguars line @ denver came out, people immediately took the Broncos because they EXPECTED them to absolutely crush the Jaguars. Even the line here, is psychologically because betters say: I expect Broncos to beat them with 2-5 TD's here. And then when Vegas puts out the line @ 27.5 - people say: Ok, i expect Broncos to beat them with 2-5 TDs, and so does Vegas, so Broncos -27.5 must be the right play.

The Broncos play is the squarest of all plays you can ever find. Best team in the league matched up against (at that time) the worst team in the league will just create the most inflated line the world has ever seen.

Another example of this "expectations is never what it is" is the Kansas City Chiefs. Look, no1 expected Kansas to do so well as they did this year, no1. So what happens? Yeah, they obviously do well. But when they win week after week, people fade them because they said in the first place that KCC were not so good as their record is telling us. And then, when Giants were 0-3 we create this scenario:

Is there any way on mothers earth, that Kansas City Chiefs will go 4-0? NO WAY!!!!

Is there any way on mothers earth, that New York Giants will go 0-4? NO WAY!!!!

And of course, what happens? Not only do KCC win here, but they also cover the spread.

And then later, against Denver Broncos, a UNDEFEATED team is given + points, that just triggers the square betters to take

Vegas knows, that no1 would EVER dare to bet AGAINST a undefeated team with + POINTS!!!! for a HUGE amount of money. People will bet on Denver Broncos with the minus points against Chiefs yeah, but no1 will EVER have this play as the "play of the year" or "play of the week" and thats what they know!!! They know, no1 would ever consider a -5 line the best play of all plays against a team that hasnt dropped a single game. Now not only will they have to drop a game here, but they will also have to lose by more than 5 points.

Back to the Giants, we had a situation where NO1 expected the 4-0 and 0-4 thing to happen. So look what happens week after week when people back Giants, and they still keep losing, what do people then do? Yeah - THEY START TO FADE THE GIANTS, BECAUSE THE GIANTS ARE A SCRUB TEAM RIGHT, THEY CANT WIN GAMES AND THEY SUCK AND IS THE WORST TEAM IN THE NFL, THEY WILL GO 0-16!!!

And yeah, here u go, now you finally see what happens. Giants start winning games, they start covering, right as no1 had any faith left in them, right as everyone started fading them and no1 had the guts to back them.