Posted:
#1
It's ok if you believe ATL will win, or that 3+ is a good value, but there's no excuse for poor and lazy reasoning.
To address some of the aforementioned points.
First, "New England's defense is weak because they've played weak opponents." This is the #1 scoring defense by about 2 points over #2. You can say they've been untested for the most part, but there's no argument to be made that it's a weak defense (no, lack of big names isn't a valid argument.) Their defensive DVOA ranking is misleading as well. DVOA doesn't take into account gameplanning. For example - against mobile, bad, or inexperienced QBs, Belichick will utilize a more vanilla gameplan on defense, where he will only rush 3 guys for most of the game and play a soft zone coverage. This results in the accumulation of a good amount of yards, but very few points allowed, as the defense tightens up in the red zone. Additionally, Belichick's defenses have historically gotten better as the season as progressed, and this season has been no different. From week 1-5, defensive DVOA was 7.7%, and they ranked in the 20s. From week 6-10, it was 0.8%. Week 11-15 is when there started to be significant improvement, with a defensive DVOA of -5.9%. And finally, week 16-20, it was -20.4% (DVOA accounts for strength of schedule.) To demonstrate how good the defense was from weeks 16-20, the Broncos had a defensive DVOA of -19% on the season, and NE's during that period was -20.4%. In terms of weighted overall DVOA, NE is #1 with 40.8%, while ATL sits at 24.2%. NE's weight defensive DVOA is ranked #6.
As far as "Seattle was their toughest opponent," that's false. The Steelers were their toughest opponent, and one could make the argument that they were the 3rd best team in the entire league. NE easily disposed of them. Going back to the Seattle game, it was an aberration, because NE was plagued by miscommunication and uncharacteristic mistakes (unforced turnovers.)
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