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LVH Week 16 Master Thread

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Posted: #26
Broncofn#3 49ers -1
#11 Lions -6 1/2
#16 Jets +10
#20 Panthers +1 1/2
#30 Cardinals +8





 
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Posted: #27
Since I've been milk toast all year with no chance now (38-37) I'm just gonna, try to finish as strong as possible to gain confidence hopefully going into next year. So if you want some land/conventional picks, here are mine:

Vikings
Lions
panthers
Bills
Broncos


If I can get to 45-40 by year's end, I'll be happy. Interesting how last year's winner is not even close to cashing. Shows us, all, that CH Ballers can, never in 500 years, repeat the success, he's had.
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

Your only my chance it to go nuts and hope for some luck ... if the 10 wildest picks of your life hit when no-one else does you cash ... still astronomical odds against you, but your only chance I am

Good luck.



I tend to agree with this - even if I am taking teams on bad lines.
Thanks for the input.


my pleasure ... hope you knock em dead!
 
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Posted: #29
Found out my proxy is also chballers proxy. 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by RichieRich97:

Found out my proxy is alsochballers proxy.


With a sample size of only 85, and over 1400 entrants, just a little skill and a lot of luck can win this contest. This was only my first year in the contest, and my humble 38-37 is 5 games better than last year's winner's second card. Ch ballers is good, but not that good. 77% is luck on steroids. Mark my words, next year he goes 42-43.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by RichieRich97:

Found out my proxy is also chballers proxy. 

Matty?
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by rudy22:


Matty?
Larry K.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:



With a sample size of only 85, and over 1400 entrants, just a little skill and a lot of luck can win this contest. This was only my first year in the contest, and my humble 38-37 is 5 games better than last year's winner's second card. Ch ballers is good, but not that good. 77% is luck on steroids. Mark my words, next year he goes 42-43.
Your probably right but the scary thing is that 2nd thru 10th place are all on pace to set records too. Think this contest got a lot sharper this year
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by RichieRich97:

Your probably right but the scary thing is that 2nd thru 10th place are all on pace to set records too. Think this contest got a lot sharper this year

Looks that way Richie. My guess is that the publicity is going to keep brining more and more people into this, and the rates of success will keep getting better at the very top, but I would be shocked if there were any one player who could consistently get above 60-65% success in spread betting. It is just not possible. 77% is obscene! Let's keep this fun contest quiet so the rest of the world doesn't jump in!!! It's too much fun 
 
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Posted: #35
We cannot see others pick till Sunday right???.... And will this contest will go till post season?
 
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Posted: #36
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I will post my 5 that I would play as my real top 5 if I decide to go with 5 random non-popular games.

I assume you mean the 3rd place game in the WWC?  Of course!

Van, can you also post the plays that you would play if you were in the running....Hard week to cap for me...
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I decided to go with game theory.  I just don't think if I took my normal picks that it would matter at all in terms of getting in to the top 30.

I am fairly confident that at least 4 of these 5 will be not only unpopular, but have a big population on the other side so it will be a double win. 

If somehow I go 5-0 with these stinkers it will set me up with a possibility to get in to the top 30 on the last week....

So these are not plays I will be betting in real life - in fact - I would strongly advise against it.

6.  Redskins +7.5
7.  Dolphins -6.5
12.  Bears +6.5
19.  Browns -1.5
24.  Giants +4.5

 

I will post my real top 5 plays soon.

Dammit!!!  Those were my 5 leans earlier ths week... 

Good luck - you certainly will be in the minority on a few of those.  I could not honestly wager anything on Cleveland right now.  I would need a gun to the head while having my balls chewed off by a midget psycho.

As always - great thread.  BOL to all of you guys.

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I decided to go with game theory.  I just don't think if I took my normal picks that it would matter at all in terms of getting in to the top 30.

I am fairly confident that at least 4 of these 5 will be not only unpopular, but have a big population on the other side so it will be a double win. 

If somehow I go 5-0 with these stinkers it will set me up with a possibility to get in to the top 30 on the last week....

So these are not plays I will be betting in real life - in fact - I would strongly advise against it.

6.  Redskins +7.5
7.  Dolphins -6.5
12.  Bears +6.5
19.  Browns -1.5
24.  Giants +4.5

 

I will post my real top 5 plays soon.

I will post my top 5 plays - with current lines.  I figure nobody wants me to post Carolina +1.5 as nobody can get that - so these are the top 5 for me in order with current lines.

1.  Chargers +1
2.  Colts +3.5
3.  Chiefs +3
4.  Redskins +7.5
5.  Dolphins -6.5

GL all.


Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #40

Quote Originally Posted by QMICH:



I JUST PUKED IN MY MOUTH...........THAT COULD BE A GOOD THING FOR YOU!

BL VAN

Yeah - some of those games are definitely puke-worthy.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #41
Van - surprised to see you on sd. Most of my numbers push me to San Fran. How much do the locker room issues play into your pick or is that irrelevant?  Thanks 
 
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Posted: #42
i think you made the right call Van, go for the win


good luck to all of you
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by midnightprowl:

We cannot see others pick till Sunday right???.... And will this contest will go till post season?
No playoffs but you can see the picks Saturday around 2:00 on lvh website
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by HoyasSax:

Van - surprised to see you on sd. Most of my numbers push me to San Fran. How much do the locker room issues play into your pick or is that irrelevant?  Thanks 

When you have a coach openly discussing his coaching options as either:

Michigan OR another NFL team

You have to consider it.

But I like SD anyway.  SD has a good enough rushing defense that it will make SF throw.  I said back in like week 2 here that Kaepernick will be out of the league in 3 years - and at that time it was extremely unpopular - but I still hold to it.  Make him make the throws and you beat SF.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

When you have a coach openly discussing his coaching options as either:

Michigan OR another NFL team

You have to consider it.

But I like SD anyway.  SD has a good enough rushing defense that it will make SF throw.  I said back in like week 2 here that Kaepernick will be out of the league in 3 years - and at that time it was extremely unpopular - but I still hold to it.  Make him make the throws and you beat SF.


 
 
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Posted: #46

Jason Richardson 45-30 YTD (5-0) Mini Contest

Updated 46-30 YTD (6-0) Mini Contest

1 JAGUARS (W)

4 CHARGERS

8 VIKINGS

9 PACKERS

21 RAVENS

********* Need 9-0 Big Time, To close out the Contest and grab some Cash $$$$$

Good Luck Guys!!!

JRICH

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I will post my top 5 plays - with current lines.  I figure nobody wants me to post Carolina +1.5 as nobody can get that - so these are the top 5 for me in order with current lines.

1.  Chargers +1
2.  Colts +3.5
3.  Chiefs +3
4.  Redskins +7.5
5.  Dolphins -6.5

GL all.




GL Van  
 
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Posted: #48

As expected...

Chi and Cle are the 2 most unpopular.

Mia and NYG right up there too....

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #49
Van, what incentive do the Colts have vs a Dallas team in the thick of a playoff/division race? With a 1-game lead over Indy, Denver with the heads-up tiebreaker from week #1. Broncos at home next week vs Oakland in as near as a slam dunk win as you could have. Indy knows they'll host a wild card game and if they win, will be on the road vs a top 2 seed. Have to believe they see the reality of the situation and will rest ailing players.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Carolina, Dallas and Detroit  seems to be most popular among top players.. 

I was leaning colts so I can count this out...

Might put parlay of Detroit and GB and Carolina as parlay.
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