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LVH Week 16 Master Thread

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Veteran
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Posted: #1
Here it is
 
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Posted: #2
Any thoughts?
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
I think westgate may have made a misprint with Panthers line. Can't  imagine a scenario where panthers wouldn't be favorite by atleast 3 regardless of whose starting at qb. Could easily be the top play of the week.
 
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Posted: #5
So far I think  Panthers, Lions, Vikings will be in top 5 consensus.  Any opinions who will round out top 5?
 
Legend
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Posted: #6

I am in a dilemma this week.

I am sitting at 44-31, which is respectable by handicapping standards but dogshit by coming in the top 30 at the LVH Supercontest standards.

So my question is....

So I just play game theory this week and pick the 5 picks I think will be the most unpopular.  I mean absolutely throw out handicapping - and take 5 crappy lines with teams that I might or might not like - just to take a flyer on hitting them when nobody else will this week and next.

Or...  Do I continue to handicap with the risk being I pick popular teams, and even if by some miracle I go 10-0 still don't make it in the top 30.

Right now I am tied for 135-185.

I am leaning towards just playing game theory and taking crappy lines but curious to hear what the other guys are doing because I know there are several who are close or right where I am record-wise.

Coming in 60th for me - while a great story to my mom - means absolutely nothing to me.  If I come in 31-1500, it is all the same to me.

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Posted: #7
Your only chance it to go nuts and hope for some luck ... if the 10 wildest picks of your life hit when no-one else does you cash ... still astronomical odds against you, but your only chance I am afraid. 

Good luck.


 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart:

Your only chance it to go nuts and hope for some luck ... if the 10 wildest picks of your life hit when no-one else does you cash ... still astronomical odds against you, but your only chance I am afraid. 

Good luck.


I tend to agree with this - even if I am taking teams on bad lines.

Thanks for the input.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #9
Yeah I think I'm gonna pick ugly this week as well.
 
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Posted: #10
Im right there with you Van at 44 pts. I think regardless of what method you choose its going to take a 10-0 run. Purposly fading the consensus has been a terrible strategy this year. However, if there's a popular game that you disagree with you have to take a shot at it. That's why I'm trying to identify what the top consensus will be before selecting my plays. Any input? So far I think Panthers, Lions, Vikings and possibly Ravens or Bills will be in the top 5. 
 
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Posted: #11
Van, I enjoy tailing ur picks, so I would prefer you post your 5 favorites.  Do you also take the over in women's World Cup?  Best of luck.  Enjoyed the thread.
 
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Posted: #12
500+ will be on the Panthers at +1.5, but I don't think I have the balls to take Browns with Johnny under center. 

400+ will be on Lions at -6.5. Backing the Bears under a td will hard to  swallow as well.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Knightryder:

Im right there with you Van at 44 pts. I think regardless of what method you choose its going to take a 10-0 run. Purposly fading the consensus has been a terrible strategy this year. However, if there's a popular game that you disagree with you have to take a shot at it. That's why I'm trying to identify what the top consensus will be before selecting my plays. Any input? So far I think Panthers, Lions, Vikings and possibly Ravens or Bills will be in the top 5. 

Clearly taking:

Bears +6.5
Browns -1.5

Are 2 of the "bad lines" that nobody will take.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by johnkar3:

Van, I enjoy tailing ur picks, so I would prefer you post your 5 favorites.  Do you also take the over in women's World Cup?  Best of luck.  Enjoyed the thread.

I will post my 5 that I would play as my real top 5 if I decide to go with 5 random non-popular games.

I assume you mean the 3rd place game in the WWC?  Of course!

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Knightryder:

500+ will be on the Panthers at +1.5, but I don't think I have the balls to take Browns with Johnny under center. 

400+ will be on Lions at -6.5. Backing the Bears under a td will hard to  swallow as well.

Yeah - you wrote this as I was writing mine above.  Agree both are hard to swallow.  But might have to.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #16
Jason Richardson:

45-30 LVH WestGate Contest YTD    

5-0 YTD Mini Contest

Selection 1: Jags -3

Will Post the other 4 this Saturday, Once Released.

**** Need a Miracle 10-0 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Clearly taking:

Bears +6.5
Browns -1.5

Are 2 of the "bad lines" that nobody will take.

You're a brave one. Personally I would  stay away from Browns . That line was clearly a typo that Westgate missed before they sent out the lines. Think it was meant to be +3.5. At no point during the week was Cleveland  ever a favorite at any book in vegas or offshore. 
 
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Posted: #18
TNF: TEN 21 picks vs. JAX 93.

LVSuperBook ?@LVSuperBook · 25 minutes ago 
Thursday Night Football #SuperContest selection numbers #Tennessee 21 & #Jacksonville 93. #NFL props this Saturday @LVSuperBook @Westgate_LV
 
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Posted: #19
Van I know I'm late to respond but for me I would just take the 5 you like as it has been difficult to predict the most popular picks anyway. Panthers might be an exception as I think this was a mistake and will almost certainly be a top pick. I know there were 2 weeks in a row where we were completely off on what we thought would be popular picks, not to mention the leaders popular picks have not been in step with the rest of the contestants popular picks
 
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Posted: #20
Good Luck Jason. Way to step up when the mini contest started!
 
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Posted: #21

I decided to go with game theory.  I just don't think if I took my normal picks that it would matter at all in terms of getting in to the top 30.

I am fairly confident that at least 4 of these 5 will be not only unpopular, but have a big population on the other side so it will be a double win. 

If somehow I go 5-0 with these stinkers it will set me up with a possibility to get in to the top 30 on the last week....

So these are not plays I will be betting in real life - in fact - I would strongly advise against it.

6.  Redskins +7.5
7.  Dolphins -6.5
12.  Bears +6.5
19.  Browns -1.5
24.  Giants +4.5

 

I will post my real top 5 plays soon.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #22
Well, that's butt ugly, Van.  But stranger cards have cashed as we all know.  Curious to see your weekly plays.


 
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Posted: #23
The Cooler 43-32

Redskins +7.5
Vikings +6.5
Jets +10
Cowboys -3
Bengals +3

GL to all this week
 
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Posted: #24
Packers -10.5
Jets +10
Steelers -3
Rams -4.5
Cardinals -8
 
 
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Posted: #25
RichieRich97
43-32

Redskins+7.5
Vikings+6.5
Bucs+10.5
Jets+10
Panthers+1.5
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