Making a case for the Rams +140 (long)

I am not the greatest capper in the world but I definitely think over the last three years I have one of the best records predicting Rams games on the board. I have never kept specific track but am damn sure I hit at least 75% of the plays I make on them that I feel strongly about, and almost all of these plays were posted on this board. Yes, this means I have faded them the vast majority of the time, so please understand that even though I love my team, I almost never bet their games with my heart. I am too poor for that!

I bet them all four games this year and am 3-1. 2-2 on dogs moneylines but that also means nice profit. The first game was my only loss and that was more of a feeler bet. (I always bet them their first game out of hope before getting logical) Despite that loss I saw a ton of potential. I think any Rams fan will tell you we should have won the first two weeks where we lost on agonizingly bone headed mistakes, especially in week one... I point this out because many are saying Detroit should be 2-2, 3-1 and by similar logic the Rams should be 4-0. (At least the Rams have improved every week in this regard.)

The Rams Defense vs the Detroit Offense:

The Rams are giving up 13 points a game this year, tied for third in the NFL. The most points that have given to any team in four games is 17. This is a defense run by the same coordinator who stopped the highest scoring team in NFL history in the Super Bowl in 08. Spagnulo has made a severe imprint and his exotic blitzes are causing the Rams to get a ton of pressures.

Our safety Dahl is a ferocious blitzer. Chris Long may only have one sack this season but he has an insane 22 pressures so far... meaning he is getting pressure at an almost nonstop rate this season. Our other DE Hall has four sacks the last three games. DT Fred Robbins (part of the Giants Super Bowl D) is playing at a Pro Bowl level.

People keep talking about the Detroit DL but I do not feel as if the Rams are that far behind them. But the point is the Rams have an excellent defensive line for the first time in years and are a nightmare matchup for a Detroit OL that is uniformly considered to be horrible.

Calvin Johnson is a superstar but Hill still needs time to hit him, and the evidence strongly suggests that the Rams will not allow him that time very often.

The Detroit QB Hill has the most picks in the league. Under the type of pressure the Rams will get on him it is hard to see him not throwing some up for grabs. The Rams have two very solid corners in Bartell and Fletcher. Bartell is a big corner who shut Fitzgerald down in week one (Fitz was not 100% but still an accomplishment) and should do as well as any CB could against Calvin due to his great size.

The Rams have average outside linebackers and that could hurt us vs the Detroit super RB. But our middle linebacker is playing at a Pro Bowl level.

This is the best offense the Rams have faced yet this year but it is hard to see a team that gives up 13 points a game suddenly getting blown away by a team with a sieve OL run by a QB with the most picks in the league, call me crazy. I expect them to stifle Detroit and keep their scoring to a minimum, certainly under 25 points.

Detroit's star RB having turf toe only increases my confidence in this element of my evaluation.

The Rams Offense vs the Detroit Defense:

Sam Bradford is undoubtedly right now the rookie of the year. He is almost perfect on passes to the right side this year (he favors that side), someone who all the experts who have watched him say is a surefire future all star, and has a passer rating of over 110 on 3rd and long, one of the most clutch statistics in the league.

I cannot possibly overstate how much this player means to the Rams. They were previously led by Bulger, who statistically was the worst QB in the league the last three years. He was flat out horrible. To go from his conservative, scared mindset to someone with much more talent and confidence has lifted the whole team up. He not only makes more clutch throws, fewer mistakes and infinitely better on field decisions, his performance has a drastic ripple effect across the whole team morale wise.

They know with Bradford they are going to be good at some point and that gives them the confidence and belief to be good now. A young superstar leader gives a team an entirely different attitude than a post-30 year old failure, no doubt about it.

The Rams OC Shurmur is actually calling great games the last two games. He is adjusting to defenses and calling screens in appropriate spots, play action, deep routes, everything he was not doing last year with a less capable QB. He is a contributor now as well.

The Rams offensive line is very solid this year. This may be a shock to some of you, I know. We have a second round pick, #1 in the second round btw, in Saffold who has performed really well at one tackle spot, and Smith at the other tackle spot, the #2 overall pick in the drat last year. Our guards are very solid. Our center is Brown, the former Pro Bowler from the Ravens, still in his prime. It is a good unit already but has the potential to be excellent. This unit should offset the very capable Detroit defensive line, who got ten of their fourteen sacks in two games against teams with worse OLs that have schemes more prone to being blown up by a good pass rush than the Rams more conservative approach.

The Ram running back Stephen Jackson is one of the best in the league. He has a groin injury and is not 100%, but even hurt he performed very well last week, with over 100 total yards vs a tough Skin defense. He has stated during the week that he feels much more healthy than he did last week. The backup Darby is very quick and has scored a TD in each of the last two weeks, so is obviously capable of a big play subbing for Jackson.

The WR core is a bunch of blue collar guys. A mediocre group overall, leading the leagues in drops the last I checked... but Clayton is good and the rest are above average. It is just that there is no legit #1 WR on this team. Lots of #2 types and slot receivers. But Sam is an expert at spreading the ball and finding the open man with his reads. He makes them better than they are.

Detroit has one of the worst secondaries the Rams have played and after success against lesser secondaries it is expected that when Sam gets time (see my comments on our OL) he will have men running open to target. And going off his performances the first four games, he will hit them.

Despite all the hype the Detroit front has not done well against the run. Jackson should have a big day. If anyone remembers, he ran rampant on them last year to get the Rams their only W of the season in that 17-10 win, and surely that is something he draws confidence from coming into this game.

Why the Rams +3 is far from a trap line:

Home field advantage elicits a 6 point swing, so in effect this line tells us that Vegas/the public views these two teams as evenly matched. People think this because Detroit has played four supposedly good teams down to the wire before losing and by contrast the Rams have only won two games in a soft schedule, with two losses to the horrible Raiders and Cardinals that still stick out to people.

Detroit also has flashier playmakers in Best and Johnson while the Rams are more blue collar. People think Detroit is better the same as they think San Fransisco is better than the Rams despite both being 0-4.

Basically this early in the season people are still drawing conclusions based on what happened last year, and last year the Rams had the worst record in the league. All those years of being horrible have built a perception that two games cannot shake, no matter how impressive they were. All of that losing has crafted this +140 value, not some sort of insider knowledge, impending fix or a genuine analysis of how these two teams match up.

Overview:

This is a turning point game as far as value on the Rams is concerned. If they get around 6-3 to start the season lines like them being +140 vs cellar dwellers (record wise) will be nowhere to be found. They are dogs here and a whopping +365 to win their division. If they win here you will not get value like this on them again vs a mediocre team and if they lose then their value will go even further up than it is now.

In short, if they lose they will continue to be lucrative to bet on but if they win you might not find a steal like this for some time with them.

People keep talking about how it is only two wins but the last time the Rams won two in a row by 14 or more was all the way back in 2003!!! Those were not just two wins, guys, the Rams beat the living shit out of those two teams. There is a big difference in confidence coming into the Lions' house off two blowout wins where the Rams were in control for the full 60 as opposed to two tight wins. This is a factor that I think many who have capped this game have completely overlooked. No double digit win can be called a fluke and the Rams have now had two in a row.

This is far from the same Rams team as in years before. They only sucked last year because it was Spagnulo's first as a coach and his scheme was new to them, he did not have all his players, and many of our best players like Chris Long and Jason Smith were too young to play at full speed like they do now. They were thinking instead of reacting.

There are factors against the Rams, mainly being a rookie QB in a hostile environment and a Detroit team hungry for a win. But the Rams QB is wise beyond his years and mentally tough. He should at the very least not crumble just because he is on the road. He has played big road games in college and dominated so he is used to hostile environments. And Detroit's hunger will be matched by the Rams' own. Detroit is hungry for a win period, but the Rams are hungry to actually become a relevant team again, and I think that latter hunger is even more compelling because it comes with a bit more confidence behind it.

But the Rams will not be overconfident here, contrary to popular belief. There are many good quotes from our players (a very smart group overall and well picked by coach Spags) along these lines but the one that stood out to me the most is this one from our star Stephen Jackson:

"If any other football team in the National Football League understands where Detroit is, I think we (do)," Steven Jackson said. "They're an 0-4 team that's very good. They've been in every contest that they've been a part of. I know they're going to be feisty and upset with us about stealing one last year in their stadium, so we have to stay focused. We have not arrived yet, and although we're getting good, we're not in position to overlook anyone." (source: St. Louis Post Dispatch)

People will say that a 1-15 team last year will have trouble winning three in a row. Well, by that logic they would have trouble winning two games in a row by double digits, or holding four opponents in a row under 17 ppg when they used to be a total defensive sieve, but those things have already happened so their approach to gauging the team is already defeated.

Some teams defy the odds and turnarounds happen at lightning speed in the NFL. This same team a decade ago went from 3-13 to 13-3 and Super Bowl Champs in the space of one season, and now this type of turnaround is almost the norm.

If you can identify the genuine ones from the pretenders you can profit. I say the Rams are genuine, at least genuine enough that they are better than the Lions and the best team in the weak NFC West.

The only reason to bet the Lions here is based off of information from last season and that information is not relevant. Last year is ancient history and in the second year of his system the Rams are truly blossoming under Spagnulo.

I am not expecting miracles this season, but tomorrow this team which is tied for first place in the division has a chance to take the undisputed division lead with a win over Detroit (unless Arizona beats the Saints--highly unlikely!) and they damned well know it. They come in confident, hungry, and matching up well with the weaknesses of the opposing team. And unlike Detroit the Rams seem to have learned how to close out games, a vital factor.

All my big bets on Rams games the last three seasons have been fades of them. I doubt I can bet against them at all this year with Bradford playing like this and the value on them being so low that they are dogs to the winless Lions. This is my first big bet on the Rams on the ML in a long time and I make it with confidence:

4 units on the Rams +140

3 units on the Rams to win the NFC Weak, er, West +365

GL guys and thanks to anyone who took the time to read a very long, stream of consciousness post. I hope you respect this case even if you disagree with it because I am pretty confident here, and obviously psyched about the possibilities for my team for the first time in ages. And also the possibility to profit from their turnaround and my seeing it quicker than most.

I wrote this off the top of my head drawing from what I have seen and read this week, so if I screwed anything up please feel free to correct me. But I think even if I did that the bulk of my case will remain intact and compelling. This is a turning point game for the Rams and the biggest one they have played in about four years. They will be hungry and they will be ready.

THE END

(Also... go read Rams message boards and Detroit message boards. Rams fans uniformly approach this game with caution, all knowing that Detroit will be starved for a win. Contrast this to what Detroit fans are posting, which is huge confidence that they will not only win this Sunday but rout the Rams in the process. Here is a collection of Detroit fan posts about their thoughts regarding the upcoming game, where they almost to a man predict a blowout. And they mean it. This type of cockiness from fans of an 0-4 team is quite frankly begging for a reality check.)

(on Rams D vs the Detroit O I would like to add that when Hill does throw it up for grabs our Free Safety Atogwe is one of the best in the league at getting turnovers)

its gonna be close, but detroit are a blimmin good side too and they have played far tougher opponents with shaun hill at the helms...

Great writeup...i feel the same about the rams, but like what others have said...i also wouldnt be surprised that the lions win the game probably by a FG ..but who knows might be more.

Iam however going to include rams in my tease now. most likely colts -1 and rams +9

GL

didnt realize, but the lions are winless..wow i definitely do not like that fact. maybe even at 1-3 i feel better about the rams..but being 0-4 definitely gives them that super desperate dangerous-at-home-mindset. and lions clearly can play ..just look at all their close games. and if anything this game is for bradford to lose, a game they lose and simply just learn from.

gonna be a close one...

lions are 0-4, look who they've played and the teams they've played

I see the fire in the Rams this year as well.. I can see them MAKING the play offs and competing for that wildcard spot up there with the Ravens.

The desperation of Detroit is going to cost them penalties in the short run, and the game in the long.

correction: Jackson got over 100 combined yards last week against the Hawks defense, not the "tough Skins D" as I stated. We played the Skins the week before last. My bad.

I wish this place had an edit button. of course at 3am with a long post like that that I had to break up there are going to be some fuck ups. i will correct them in here when i see them. writing is rewriting.

Two more points:

Calvin Johnson is a beast but he is not having a great year by any stretch of the imagination. Everyone remembers his electric grab that should have beat the Bears but what about the rest of his season?

Averaging 59.2 yards a game (the Rams' Clayton is averaging much more than this, even!)

Averaging 11.8 yards a catch (career average 15.5)

Going against a corner who has not allowed more than two completions against him in any one game this season, who was drafted specifically to handle big wideouts in our division like Fitzgerald, and is yet to give up a big play all season.
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Hill has 7 picks in only three games as a starter, so that is an average of 2.33 picks a game as a starter, absolutely horrific numbers. They are 0-4 for a reason and it sure as hell is not because of a league wide conspiracy to keep them down.

The last 3 years I'm 42-6 picking Rams games SU.

Im with you all the way.  There is good value here.  I was all over the Rams last week against my Sea Donkeys.  My only concern is can they win on the road.  Hopefully they have turned the corner and get their first road win of the season.

I am on Rams ML ofr 2.5 units.

 

GL to us Brotha!!!

Thanks for keeping it real pal and best of luck with your selections!

hope your right

You sold me BP. Taking Sam Bradford and the Rams.

GL

When U DESPERATE throw the stats out....... This is the NFL.......Plus Detroit is a decent team at home and very hungry!and now they are playing a team that even they believe they should beat......Spells Lions Victory (by any means necessary!!!)

Wow nice write-up.. I am on the Rams and happy to see you are.  I do remember all your Ram's advice over the last few years has been on the money.

Rams looking like dog shit

you just murderedyour case.

so much for the long writeup.