MNF - Giants / Steelers...

TJ WATT vs underwhelming 1-15 primetime Danny Dimes 

Maybe you should go visit that fortune teller or VISIT a super scary Halloween haunted house to FIX your mojo..this Really ISN'T you..Totally uncharacteristic of you, LEGEND 

GL Brotha 

Van I wouldn't expect you to wager 2 units off your predictive score of 1 point off your sim? Am I missing something? Thanks

@vanzack

 22-17 giants?

or is that not related to your giants+6 sims?

@Crusher13

It is totally characteristic for me.  There isnt a possibility I would be on the Steelers tonight.  This is exactly who I am - no fortune tellers involved.

TJ Watt is on a defense that is 25th in the NFL in pressure rate.  Why do you think that is?  Because he can be doubled and the rest of the Steelers front cant get to the QB.  So while Daniel Jones is no prize - and you are always taking risks by backing him - with a clean pocket he can produce.  And the Giants should be able to moderately run the ball tonight.

What would be uncharacteristic for me would be to lay 6 points in the NFL based on one player.

Sim is not only factor.  It is like raw data vs processed data.

There are several key predictors that favor the Giants tonight that are not quantifiable (accurately) by a sim.  Maybe they arent accurately quantifiable by me either - but that is all part of the recipe for the cake.

BOL van!  

I'm on the over 

@vanzack

@vanzack

 GL!  I don't like being against you!  I just think the Steelers roll.  Wishing you the best though!

Hey van, I just heard Jones is sacked over 200 times since his rookie year. I say at least he used to it...

Vanz you have proved your worth over the years here with both quality insight and a consistent winning formula. Having said that even when the number seems wrong given to bad teams it has to create a pause or pass. 
In my view as mentioned before Carolina can only be a bet against or stay away team until we see something consistently changing with our eyes only. 

With the Giants I agree they were worth a play at +6  with the low total but only because they are on the road away from the home crowd pressure 

@vanzack

 Hey..I'm just saying you need to prick a Voo Doo doll or Something 

You've never been underwater -11 units 8 weeks into ANY NFL campaign including your long gone Survivor picks...YOU can do it..we all have Faith in your prognosticating....Ironically, it was the pressure from TJ WATT that did you in..it could be Worse..you could've taken it I'm the ass like me in this World Series..what A Joke 

Here's to YOU crushing it in November AND December..only wishing you the BEST..Legend 

Thanks for the comprehensive breakdown here. Insightful.

@vanzack

@ActionMagnet

 Push that button! 

@vanzack

 Giants should have covered. A punt return td was the difference. And many inexcusable mistakes by nyg offense late, dropping a simple, wide open 3rd down pass for a massive gain in Pitt territory. special Eli.2 making mistake after mistake and then overthrowing his wr by 10 yards to Pittsburgh at the end to lose the backdoor. Prime time games get silly sometimes, but I believe your data had the right side. 
appreciate your picks and know that a big week is ahead 

I was sorry to see the yacht up for sale. If the models need a couch to crash on until you get back on your feet, let me know.

@vanzack

im really curious to know how you cap your games? surely you don't use power ratings (from good sources, not ESPN FPI) or make your own..

Because every single power ratings out there relevant to a point spread, had the steelers as -6 to -9 Favourites. 


In a generalised short summary, how do you cap your games? Keen to know what lead you to the giants, and also would love to see the angle you cap games at, it helps us all in the long term as we all have a different system to handicapping

@Erik48

 wrong angle bro, the method is:

A team that has scored 30+ in there last 2 games at least, WHILE keeping there opponents to 10 or less.  Neither team fits this as Steelers conceded 15 to Jets, and 13 to Raiders. Giants also does not qualify as they lost last 2 games before tonight.

A team that qualifies in week 9 is the Bills v Dolphins (Dolphin is the play)

Bills have scored 31 and 34, whilst keeping there opponent's to 10, and 10 again  last 2 games.   So this qualifies for the angle, meaning Dolphins is the play.

I have explained it many times here....

I have a stats driven model that has about a dozen key predictors.  Think of those as levers.  I can assign those levers different weights - depending on how much they should influence the outcome.  Then it runs monte carlo simulations on all games.

1.  Take the sim results and smooth out based on key numbers and intuition (subtle changes to the monte carlo outcome).
2.  Take the number from #1 and compare it to the real available line.
3.  Stake according to the previous running several weeks of traction (#4), and key numbers and prices available.
4.  After games, backtest for the key predictors (not results) to determine traction.  If traction is high, it means the model and process is working well.  Staking and selections go up.  Backtest also determines weighting to key predictor levers.

Also at the same time...

1.  Buy lines that indicate likely movement early in the week.
2.  Trade lines all week based on movement, and based on arbitrage.
3.  Sell those lines later in the week.

So far this season, I have been very unlucky.  I dont say that as like "I am so unlucky" - some thought that comes to my head or a feeling - truly statistically unlucky.

And games aren't playing out the way they have historically.  When big favs are winning at historical rates - I am always going to be in trouble.

The key is how much to adjust, not to overreact - unless necessary - which is a very tough thing to do.

I put 80 hours a week in to this during the football season.  I assure you - when someone inevitably posts "did you consider the weather" or "how about TJ Watt" - I have considered it.  The game last night is a great example of "unluck", my backtest shows that not only should the Giants have covered - but there were several key plays that if they didn't happen...  Punt return, many 3rd and longs that were converted - untimely turnovers by the Giants etc....

But that happens.  It is all part of it.  If I was getting my chips in on bad situations it would mean changes should be made.  But so far, I havent for the most part.  So I am reluctant to change course.

Being down 12ish units is not that big of a deal.  It should be about 12% of bankroll.  Considering I have averaged about 60 units a season in the green for 7 seasons - would you be quick to change your process after 8 weeks down 12?

We throw digs in kinder, but you're correct in staying the course as results will regress to their historical mean(s).

"I put 80 hours a week in to this during the football season."

I will save you some time:

Bet on Detroit EVERY week.

Go against Carolina EVERY week.

Simple

Thank you for the insight into your grinding process, even during a challenging regular season first half. Looking forward to the upcoming weeks. Bol

It is very unfortunate that the Giants did not cover ... so many opportunities and the Giants comes out empty.

Two turn overs in the last two possession when they are in striking distance.

but the bet is not on the right side if it is not cover.