MNF - things to ponder before you play

First off, it is not news that the Dogs ruled today and this was not a favorable day for us gamblers.  There is a demographic that is going to hang onto that notion and reinforce it later tonight with the DD Home Dog (old wives tale) to gain confidence against backing the Browns.  I have kept a close eye on Baltimore this year, and have a few thoughts about this matchup:

First observations:

1. Baltimore did what they should against Minny, and it turned into a shootout with a heartbreaker lost.  Nice cover though. 

2.Not many surprises the next week that they don't lose 4th in a row, the stymie the Denver offense, and the bandwagon rolls saying "Baltimore defense is fixed and we're back"

3. Realization that Cincy is for real and they were worked over in every facet of the game leading to a horrendous day from Flacco, with a dismal defense.

NOW:

1. Cleveland has had some games this year that have been so atrocious, it is beyond words.  I was not of fan of Brady Quinn before he was benched, and clearly I should not coach the NFL because my choice of Andersen proved to be the wrong one as well.  Brady is now back, and the Browns have a had an extra week to plan....not sure who that strengthens on their team, but i bet that they slept well.

2. Baltimore comes in knowing they can shut down an anemic offense who did not take chances down the field with Denver.  And then turns around and does not play to their potential in Cincy.  I know Gaither was a great addition for their Denver win, and Ngata really hurt them in cincy.

3. As you breakdown this game, I see a few things.  Joe Flacco is an excellent quarterback.  He is poised, can make the big plays, and he has been held in check here for at least last week and was decent vs Cincy.  In the position that the Ravens are in right now, I cannot see him coming out flat and if I think about the Green Bay game, I see Flacco scoring 100 in the first quarter.

4. I also see the Ravens defense, tightenting up a la Denver against this Browns team that is horrendous at scoring.  For them to have a breakthrough game, I do not see it against the Raven defense that knows that this is a game that they should win easlily.

Line -11 total 38.5

I have been leaning under for 3 weeks now and was fortunate was a tease on the Atlanta game, and a straight up on last week's contest.  I think Vegas is booking all Balt -5 teases with the over.  Although I want to take the under, these Cleveland games can get so out of hand and you are never really sure what shit show you are going to watch. 

Can anyone tell me if this Browns defense can remain competitive against Flacco and Co?  When a team is 4-4 and knowing they are having trouble finding a way to win, I lean towards the dog.  because of the recent past, it is tought to LOAD UP on Baltimore when they have undeperformed this year. 

Bottom line you have signs of greatness on both sides of the ball for Baltimore with zilch for Cleveland.  I get the DD Home Dog/Trap line call, but as much as I want to buy into it, I just can't see how Cleveland can hang in with Quinn, some bunk receivers, and a Baltimore defense that can shut you down when they get in rhythm.

Still soul searching for this game but would be interested to hear about Cleveland's defense and how they can keep this close.

BOL

Clevland in no way shape or form will be able to keep it close. I mean they are just horrible, I tried to fid a reason to take the home dog, but really I cant. I think Clevland has already just threw in the towl and are in line to hear these words.."In the 2010 NFL Draft with the first overall pcik the Clevland Browns Select"???  So I say I am on borad with the ravens tonight -11

Saw the Redskins did wonder this Sunday.  

Well I have a good feeling Baltimore could cover -11 pretty easily but at the same time... how many people thought the Rams were going to hang with NO from start to finish and almost win the game SU?

I don't know about you but in my own mind I pretty much lumped the Rams with the Browns as far as shittyness.

Through my capping years, I've seen strange things happen with DD MNF home dogs

This is a same season second division Revenge game Monday Night DD home dog off a bye.

Throw all the stats out the window.

Clevland +11

You have some very good points here

...on another note:  Just remember last year  wk# 6 when the Giants were pummeling everyone during thier 1st 5 games of the season. No one could beat them,they were going to crush Clevland that night. Clevland was just as bad as they are now, off a bye wk, home on MNF as a DD home dog and won the game SU.

Remember the Chicago Bears back in  06 during thier SB year.They to were pummeling thier opponents during thier first 5 games of the season to a 157-36 point advantage, until they came up against the lowly Arizona Cardinals with a rookie Matt Lienart installed as a 12pt  DD MNF home dog. They were not who we thought they were. Even though they lost the game.They brought home the bacon

In the NFL...History repeats itself. Those who refuse to believe it, are doomed to repeat it

Clevland... trust me,,, They are not who we think they are.

For this Monday Night DD Home Dog play to work out, dont the fans and the players have to be excited to be playing football and supporting their team? 

Cleveland has no support from their fans, and the players have no confidence in either Quinn or Mangini, not to mention their GM is looking for a job because of "Mangenius".  This is the worst team in football, and BY FAR the first team to give up completely.  Most of them probably spent their bye week doing anything but thinking about football and the Ravens. 

Rams, Lions, Raiders, Chiefs, Bucs... all of these teams would beat the Browns right now. 

Quote Originally Posted by Wakko4Flacco:

Tonight Clevland is who we think they are! Vegas needs to mix it up a little to throw us off right?

Yeah I guess so

Dont forget to put Buffalo in that sentence.. with the rest of the those teams.

You're very Wize my friend.

Quote Originally Posted by Wakko4Flacco:

Tonight Clevland is who we think they are! Vegas needs to mix it up a little to throw us off right?

...throw US off ?......No, throw you off. 

Wakko - I know you have been riding the OVER on MNF for awhile and saw that your lean was the same tonight.  Although the OVER has been the consistent call, I think a team like the Browns, who with their 32nd ranked Pass Offense is not going to take advantage of the Ravens secondary, and you can't discount the fact that Flacco has been struggling lately.  If the Browns can keep the ball away and limit the Ravens big plays, I see this hitting UNDER for the 2nd week in a row.  This is a divisional game with a lot of the board backing the Dog and with two teams facing adversity, this could be a slugfest.

Tough shift in mentality when after almost every MNF this season that you cash in your Over ticket, but I because of the streak, I look for matchups like these that can buck the trend.

Just locked in Under 40(bought the 1/2 pt).  If the prophecy that Cleveland wins tonight that has been posted by a few of the Covers members, than the Under may be in trouble.  Otherwise, I see a lot of running, turnovers, and a lot of balls being thrown into the sidelines by Brady.

 BOL to everyone and enjoy the ShitShow

If I've learned anything betting on football is to not bet against the home dog on mnf. I've been betting on football every since I was 16, that's 18yrs ago and have lost a lot of hair from scratching my head wondering how on earth these mnf dogs cover.

Whatever is being said, the fans will cheer tonight, they are begging to cheer for something. Quinn getting the start is refreshing. Cribbs will be decent, the lines will be tough. This is MNF boys and the Browns will show up...I hope.

I also think the line is a little low...10.5 to ride the Balt train? hmmm

Balt wins, but I do think the Browns cover. 

This Browns team could be the worst NFL team in Years.

The NFLPA is visting the team to go over some things,That in itself shows that everyone out there is a complete mess. They are doing the Qb swicth for like the 5th time this year and both times Quinn looked like a deer in head lights, I remember Kolb going in vs the Ravens defense and threw like 3 picks and one for a TD... So except the same for Quinn. Ravens Roll..

This Browns team could be the worst NFL team in Years.

The NFLPA is visting the team to go over some things,That in itself shows that everyone out there is a complete mess. They are doing the Qb swicth for like the 5th time this year and both times Quinn looked like a deer in head lights, I remember Kolb going in vs the Ravens defense and threw like 3 picks and one for a TD... So except the same for Quinn. Ravens Roll..

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 Yeah, coach said Quinn looked great in practice this week.  What they didn't report is that the Browns' Cheerleaders also torched the Browns' defense in the same practice sessions.