Monday

Turnover Differential- KC has a -5 turnover differential & Pats have a +6 turnover differential. 

KC ranks dead last at # 32 and Pats share the tie at #1 with Bengals in this category. 

I see this being a very close low scoring game where every yard & possession counts and I think Belicheck focuses on playing that mistake free football and taking away an opponents biggest threat (Charles) that gets them the win. Pats have a very good D as well and I see them running the ball alot themselves and forcing Smith to beat them in the air. Pats will take away Charles and not allow KC to run all over them. 

I see a low scoring grinding game Pats can play this style football these days and will make one more play than KC to get the win by a small margin.

 I like Pats -2.5 and UNDER 46.5 probably will parlay the 2 for a nice payout. 

Thanks for the post. Trust me, I'm aware of the turnover differential, it's been discussed in just about every broadcast. It's an important stat, I agree, however, I find these stats slightly trivial through only the first 3 games. You can spin a writeup any way you want in order to favor the team youre backing. There's so many angles and stats that we can cover when breaking down a game that its relatively easy to make either team sound justified in backing them tonight. Just as you've mentioned the  turnover margin, what do you have to say about NE giving up 4 yds per rushing attempt? Again, very trivial. Ive only discussed a very small sample and it just happened to be about Brady. If I'm going to make a play against Brady, I'm going to have a damn good reason to do so and it appears that KC has a favorable matchup with their front 7 against the Pats offense. Why is it that bad teams such as the Raiders and Dolphins are making the Patriots look average so far this year? This will be a common theme this year, in my opinion. 

I agree you can spin a writeup/stats to make either team look justified. So let me just throw a few more non obvious ones out there and we'll move on.

Everyone is talking about the Chiefs Defense. Well stats actually show Pats ranked 3rd overall in total Defense and Chiefs 11th. Surprised? However, Pats rank 1st in Pass defense however ranked 11th in rush defense. Chiefs rank 23rd in rushing defense, 11th in pass. So yes the Pats are weaker against the run you are right and with the Chiefs strong run game that looks like a mismatch.

Also everyone is talking about the Pats O line issues but stats showing the Chiefs have surrendered 11 sacks, while the Pats have surrendered 7 total. Surprised? Of course there are qb hurries and hits that also matter I know not just sacks.

Now I normally don't back teams that have a mismatch in the trenches. In this case Pats problematic O-line vs Chiefs strong front 7. However I am banking on the Pats correcting some things with their O line tonight. They know its a big issue and they are well aware that protecting Brady is crucial. I think the pats o line will be very focused on playing strong tonight. The thing is they HAVE TO and they know this. I think Belichick will have the o line very prepared for the chiefs pass rush. I saw something where the o line came in early in the morning on a practice day at Gillette to put extra work in. They are focused to correct. Pats are usually very good at fixing problems. 

Also to note is that the Chief's pass rush comes from the edges and where the pats have problems is pressure coming from the interior because Brady is a natural pocket passer and likes to step up in the pocket to avoid edge pressure. If the pats o line can hold off Hali & the guy on the other edge long enough outside they can move the chains . 

It's no secret that teams have figured out you must pressure brady to beat the pats. Thats how the Giants pulled the major upset in Sb 2007. Lots of pressure dialed up from the middle. This is not where the Chiefs pressure comes from so it shouldn't be as disruptive to brady.

Also Pats have some under the radar pass rushers themselves that can do some damage. Don't be surprised if you see Smith on the ground more than Brady.

The Pats are one of my fav teams to play on because they always find ways to win and I just generally TRUST them to get the job done. I believe they get the job done tonight.

The bottom line is I am banking on these 4 main factors.

1. Pats to show much improved O line play and contain KC pass rush.

2. Brady to have a good game on primetime. He is very competitive and hates looking bad on primetime.

3.Beleicheck to out coach and out strategize Reid. 

4. Pats making little mistakes and winning the turnover battle.

AMD I think you are a good capper and was hoping to see you on the Pats tonight. But best of luck tonight.

I don't think NE will make this game a high scoring affair and after I read an article by Brad Gagnon from CBS Sports, he provided some useful information that affirmed my play on KC. In 2007, Brady completed a league high 31 completions on throws of at least 20 yards and 16 of those throws went for tds. Last year, Brady had just four deep td passes and only 20 completions over 20 yds. This year, Brady has just one completion over 20 yds in 13 attempts. At 37 yrs of age, the philosophy of New England's offensive scheme has changed. Brady has struggled finding a pocket to throw in because the guard play and center have been a liability on the offensive line. He also doesn't have the weapons on the outside that we are accustomed to watching. Gronk is unhealthy, Thompkins, LaFell and Dobson are all a work in progress. Last year, his receivers dropped 53 passes. No other team had more than 43 dropped passes. So between pass protection issues and dropped passes that include this season, play calling has become more conservative. The Patriots offensive line has allowed more hits (44) on Brady than any team in the NFL through 4 weeks. Because of this, the Patriots have turned to their running game more this season than at any other time in the last decade through the first quarter of the season. Now, the Patriots have to face a 3-4 defense that has excellent pass rushers in Hali and Houston who combined for 22 sacks last season and already have 5 this season, ranking the chiefs pass rush at #2 through the first 3 weeks. Brady ranks 25th out of 31 starting qbs with a completion percentage of 37 percent under duress. The matchup for KCs defense is against Brady and the offensive line is a mismatch. Against KCs blitz packages, opposing qbs have completed just 43 percent of their throws with a meager 74 efficiency rating. As for the KC offense, I like the weapons around Smith. KC expects Charles to be active and Davis has been productive thus far. Bowe is a big threat on the outside who has big play potential as long as the rushing attack finds some holes in which I believe it will. I don't see this game being a shoot out. I look for KC to try and control the clock and get themselves in 3rd and short and continue to pound the rock to convert 3rd downs. I think KC will win this game 24-20

Thanks a lot for your posts. Regarding the Saints, be careful playing them against Tampa. The loss tonight and against Cleveland and Atlanta are more of the norm than anomolies. This team is not a good team on either side of the ball. One would think that a team like Tampa would be good medicine for Nawlins but for the Saints to be laying double digits with their defense that gets carved up every week, I'll pass. It's nothing more than the Drew and Jimmy show down at the Superdome and as we've seen, they need much more help than those two guys. 

As for the look ahead spot and Alex Smith, I would bet that Smith hasn't thought about San Francisco once this week while preparing for NE. If anything, he's preparing to show his stuff in front of the national audience tonight. However, I don't think Smith has to win this game, he just has to be a game manager and not turn the ball over. I like Smiths play, overall. In fact, I think the Niners would be better off with him than Kaepernick. 

Thanks, again, for your time and information....great post. Regardless of tonight, I hope it's a great week for you, good luck.