All Forums | NFL Betting

Monday

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 16297
Posts: 162
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2014
Posts: 61
Posted: #26
Nice job this weekend AMD, Respect your opinion, been reading for some time now, But I'm on the other side tonight,

Green Bay's Defense vs the pats was no fluke, They have been on  the rise for the last 5 weeks or so. They have solved a lot of their run defense deficiencies when the started to move Clay around to play some ILB. It paid off immediately. I know they do have a low ranked Rush D, but that is in large part because of some early season huge games. And when their at home, they've given up a lot of garbage time yards and points when the game is already over. Sometimes playing their backups mid 3rd quarter. You mention the turnover margin for Atlanta at +6. Rodgers doesnt turn the ball over period. I would bet the pack @ -20 in this spot, Atlanta's bad rank pass defense will be exposed yet again by the best QB.

Rodgers will be sitting out the 4th quarter enjoying another blow out.

Give me the Pack all day at Lambeau!!!

BOL.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2006
Posts: 2497
Posted: #27

What's up bud, long time.  I always like your insight and am leaning Falcons but what about the reverse argument, that the line is reflective of the Falcons beating the Cards who they caught at the perfect time?  How do we know Faclons will be able to keep up offensively?  The Pack D held Philly to only 20 points at Lambeau.  Also, Falcons re 0-4 ATS L4 after SU victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six away from the Georgia Dome.  Perhaps GB won't be as focused after huge win last week.  First half play on ATL might be good.  BOL

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 3646
Posted: #28
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2014
Posts: 61
Posted: #29
Pack have home field advantage to be focused about. I cant see how theyd have a let down at home
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 12207
Posted: #30
BOL bud
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 33047
Posted: #31
Nice Sunday AMD! Good luck tonight
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 663
Posted: #32
Bol amd! Atl it Is! Mucho respect for ya
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 4006
Posted: #33
Hi AMD. I'm on the same side tonight . Best of luck to this forum.
ATL + all the yummy points :)
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2008
Posts: 26899
Posted: #34
Thank you for the writeup

Love the over tonight tbh... best way to attack this game
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2013
Posts: 1980
Posted: #35
This line is no joke 13.5 is a blowout line if you know anything about gambling you wouldn't say that Atlanta on road monday night in frigid lambeau your a fool taking Atlanta mr Rodgers on a MVP pace clueless people around this forum
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 156
Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by captainandseven:

This line is no joke 13.5 is a blowout line if you know anything about gambling you wouldn't say that Atlanta on road monday night in frigid lambeau your a fool taking Atlanta mr Rodgers on a MVP pace clueless people around this forum


amd is far from clueless, obviously. Made a lot of people a lot of money. But I think he, like other very good cappers, chooses to ignore the obvious instances where signals are being sent to avoid one side or another.

When you're a very good capper, I think ego can creep in and you just play your analysis rather than look at what a line is telling you. I go through the same thing with horseracing: if I love a horse and he's cold on the board, I often ignore it and more often than not I pay for it.

I've seen cappers on here say that when you think the line is telling you something, what's its telling you is that you should do more research. That's fine. But it's also not always true. Some NFL games end up with 30 point margins of victory, and there' s no way for a line to reflect that except for the linesmaker to discourage action on the right side by inflating the dog. That is precisely what this feels like.

Having said that, I am playing atlanta small.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 515
Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by captainandseven:

This line is no joke 13.5 is a blowout line if you know anything about gambling you wouldn't say that Atlanta on road monday night in frigid lambeau your a fool taking Atlanta mr Rodgers on a MVP pace clueless people around this forum


Are you including yourself !!
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 515
Posted: #38
More often than not, you get double digit points, you take the dog. Just like Broncos yesterday giving up 10, got back doored at the end letting the Bills drive and get a late TD
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 33072
Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by bkwy:



amd is far from clueless, obviously. Made a lot of people a lot of money. But I think he, like other very good cappers, chooses to ignore the obvious instances where signals are being sent to avoid one side or another.

When you're a very good capper, I think ego can creep in and you just play your analysis rather than look at what a line is telling you. I go through the same thing with horseracing: if I love a horse and he's cold on the board, I often ignore it and more often than not I pay for it.

I've seen cappers on here say that when you think the line is telling you something, what's its telling you is that you should do more research. That's fine. But it's also not always true. Some NFL games end up with 30 point margins of victory, and there' s no way for a line to reflect that except for the linesmaker to discourage action on the right side by inflating the dog. That is precisely what this feels like.

Having said that, I am playing atlanta small.

I appreciate your post, nice observation. I agree that the oddsmakers cant set the line high enough with certain matchups. All they can do is deter a side with an inflated line. And, obviously, we as a public, believe this is one of those games. I, however, like Atlanta to stay within the number. If I thought Green Bay was going to win by 20, I'd be all over Green Bay tonight. I have no problem laying the chalk as I did with Detroit yesterday. 

The above poster in post #36 seems to have it all figured out. Tonights line is a blowout line. The game is at Lambeau. The QB is Aaron Rodgers. The defense is Atlanta.......Do you realize how many ignorrant fukks in America rationalize like this  clown. If we all capped like this gomer, Covers wouldnt need a website because we'd all be too fukking broke to bet.

In any case, I made my play last night at 13.5 because I didnt believe the line would move to 14 and paying 25 cents for the half is ignorant especially when I think the difference will be single digits. Gl tonight.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 14923
Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


Let me start by saying that regarding the expected weather forecast, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to feel any more comfortable out there throwing the ball around than Matt Ryan. In fact, if the weather forecast turns out as predicted, I'll like my Atlanta play even more. 
For those taking Green Bay soley on the arm of Aaron Rodgers, I'd say that would be crazier than me taking Atlanta and their porous defense against Aaron Rodgers at home. I realize Rodgers is the 2nd best Qb in the league right now and his offense is putting up monstrous numbers, however, I also realize that they've been winning games primarily because of their +15 turnover margin. But, guess what? Atlanta is +6 in the turnover margin this season. And, I sincerely believe Atlanta will move the ball for 4 quarters. Green Bay is giving up 22 pts/g and they're 29th on rushing defense. GB is also giving up 45% of 3rd down conversions which is in the bottom 3rd of the league. Meanwhile, the Falcons were only averaging 19 pts/gm before their bye and since then, they're averaging 25 pts/gm and 100 yds rushing/gm which will bode well against the Packers soft run defense. I believe Atlanta can be successful utilizing Jackson between the tackles to set up their big playmakers downfield. 
I'm not trying to be cute with the Atlanta play. I have quite a few units on the game because I sincerely believe Atlanta has the ability in this matchup to utilize the time of posession and put points on the board along with the 13.5 points that I'm already catching. Mike Nolan has been challenged quite a bit this season but since the bye, his defense has improved. In the last 4 games, they're only giving up an average of 19 pts to go along with 6 Ints to bolster their + turnover margin. 

AMD, you know I love you and all and this line is probably inflated some, but that right there in bold is total hogwash brother. Had to call you out on that. Good luck!
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 13323
Posted: #41
Nice job this week amd, glad to see you on the dirty birds
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 33072
Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


AMD, you know I love you and all and this line is probably inflated some, but that right there in bold is total hogwash brother. Had to call you out on that. Good luck!

I dont mind your post. I really wasnt comparing both QB's in the literal sense. I was implying that in bad weather conditions like tonight, both teams can benefit from the turnover margin. And, yes, if the weather is to be as expected, I like my 13 points with a team that is +6 in turnover margin to create a turnover or two in bad weather. Elementary.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2010
Posts: 226
Posted: #43
Is this Atl play larger then a standard play amd?
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 33072
Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Kraut:

Is this Atl play larger then a standard play amd?

Yes, it is. Bol Kraut
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2008
Posts: 4651
Posted: #45
GL bro.. I'm on board with ya!! Always got mad respect for your skills 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 33072
Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by mpnyc76:

What's up bud, long time.  I always like your insight and am leaning Falcons but what about the reverse argument, that the line is reflective of the Falcons beating the Cards who they caught at the perfect time?  How do we know Faclons will be able to keep up offensively?  The Pack D held Philly to only 20 points at Lambeau.  Also, Falcons re 0-4 ATS L4 after SU victory and 1-5 ATS in its last six away from the Georgia Dome.  Perhaps GB won't be as focused after huge win last week.  First half play on ATL might be good.  BOL


Great to you you back buddy. GB has every reason to be focused tonight and, obviously, Atlanta does, too. The Atlanta win at home against Arizona was a nice win but the oddsmakers aren't putting too much stock into that win as tonights line has indicated. The consensus of covers is a small sample size as to how we, as a sports nation, perceive these two teams so, irregardless of Atlanta's big win against the Cardinals, the oddsmakers are obviously aware that they can set this line at any ridiculous number and they'll still get Packers backers.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2006
Posts: 23104
Posted: #47
Atl 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2014
Posts: 50
Posted: #48
& w/ a sprinkle of alternate line of ATL +7.5?
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 4314
Posted: #49
Let me ask you this AMD what # do you think Atlanta stays within? 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11?? 


 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2005
Posts: 1056
Posted: #50
amd, any reason you do not post your play amounts anymore?  
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.