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Posted: #1
Sunday 6-2





Atlanta +13.5


 
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I present this question because Atl is a dome team ,with the forecast with temps in the low 30's dropping into the 20's with snow showers /freezing drizzle does Alt have what it takes not to get blown out ? BOL always
 
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Posted: #3
  me to amd. 
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by smallwagaaman:

I present this question because Atl is a dome team ,with the forecast with temps in the low 30's dropping into the 20's with snow showers /freezing drizzle does Alt have what it takes not to get blown out ? BOL always

Let me start by saying that regarding the expected weather forecast, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to feel any more comfortable out there throwing the ball around than Matt Ryan. In fact, if the weather forecast turns out as predicted, I'll like my Atlanta play even more. 
For those taking Green Bay soley on the arm of Aaron Rodgers, I'd say that would be crazier than me taking Atlanta and their porous defense against Aaron Rodgers at home. I realize Rodgers is the 2nd best Qb in the league right now and his offense is putting up monstrous numbers, however, I also realize that they've been winning games primarily because of their +15 turnover margin. But, guess what? Atlanta is +6 in the turnover margin this season. And, I sincerely believe Atlanta will move the ball for 4 quarters. Green Bay is giving up 22 pts/g and they're 29th on rushing defense. GB is also giving up 45% of 3rd down conversions which is in the bottom 3rd of the league. Meanwhile, the Falcons were only averaging 19 pts/gm before their bye and since then, they're averaging 25 pts/gm and 100 yds rushing/gm which will bode well against the Packers soft run defense. I believe Atlanta can be successful utilizing Jackson between the tackles to set up their big playmakers downfield. 
I'm not trying to be cute with the Atlanta play. I have quite a few units on the game because I sincerely believe Atlanta has the ability in this matchup to utilize the time of posession and put points on the board along with the 13.5 points that I'm already catching. Mike Nolan has been challenged quite a bit this season but since the bye, his defense has improved. In the last 4 games, they're only giving up an average of 19 pts to go along with 6 Ints to bolster their + turnover margin. 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by amd:


Let me start by saying that regarding the expected weather forecast, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to feel any more comfortable out there throwing the ball around than Matt Ryan. In fact, if the weather forecast turns out as predicted, I'll like my Atlanta play even more. 
For those taking Green Bay soley on the arm of Aaron Rodgers, I'd say that would be crazier than me taking Atlanta and their porous defense against Aaron Rodgers at home. I realize Rodgers is the 2nd best Qb in the league right now and his offense is putting up monstrous numbers, however, I also realize that they've been winning games primarily because of their +15 turnover margin. But, guess what? Atlanta is +6 in the turnover margin this season. And, I sincerely believe Atlanta will move the ball for 4 quarters. Green Bay is giving up 22 pts/g and they're 29th on rushing defense. GB is also giving up 45% of 3rd down conversions which is in the bottom 3rd of the league. Meanwhile, the Falcons were only averaging 19 pts/gm before their bye and since then, they're averaging 25 pts/gm and 100 yds rushing/gm which will bode well against the Packers soft run defense. I believe Atlanta can be successful utilizing Jackson between the tackles to set up their big playmakers downfield. 
I'm not trying to be cute with the Atlanta play. I have quite a few units on the game because I sincerely believe Atlanta has the ability in this matchup to utilize the time of posession and put points on the board along with the 13.5 points that I'm already catching. Mike Nolan has been challenged quite a bit this season but since the bye, his defense has improved. In the last 4 games, they're only giving up an average of 19 pts to go along with 6 Ints to bolster their + turnover margin. 
Yeah, what he said...... AMD
 
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Posted: #6
Nice work AMD ! 
 
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Posted: #7
Yes sir,excellent fact and stats. 
 
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Posted: #8
BOL Bud
 
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Posted: #9
TAKE THE POINTS
ATLANTA
 
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Posted: #10
The scary thing about that Atlanta defense is they've been horrific and their schedule hasn't even be hard. Last week is the first time this season it looked like this defense is actually NFL worthy. 3 of those interceptions they got came from Hoyer, I watched that game and Atlanta got destroyed defensively, however Hoyer is awful as I'm sure everyone now knows. Couldn't bare to wager on the Falcons against an elite offense, as they've been shocking against mediocre/bad units! One of those games where you have to close your eyes and hope you don't get a torn a new one
 
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Posted: #11
Atlanta has been a bad road team last couple years, and a dome team in the cold is a bad situation. Rodgers has put up some huge numbers in the cold many times, huge edge over Ryan and Atlanta there. packers have beaten Chicago, Minnesota, Carolina and Philly in blowout fashion already this year and Atlanta will be the next. They won't be able to run much once they get down 2 or 3 scores.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by hug0boss:

The scary thing about that Atlanta defense is they've been horrific and their schedule hasn't even be hard. Last week is the first time this season it looked like this defense is actually NFL worthy. 3 of those interceptions they got came from Hoyer, I watched that game and Atlanta got destroyed defensively, however Hoyer is awful as I'm sure everyone now knows. Couldn't bare to wager on the Falcons against an elite offense, as they've been shocking against mediocre/bad units! One of those games where you have to close your eyes and hope you don't get a torn a new one

It's interesting to read everyone's perspective on not only this game but any game. I'm obviously not here to persuade a play. I've simply given a reason(s) as to why I've made my play. Just as you can't bear to take Atlanta's defense against an elite offense, I think the oddsmakers have completely overvalued Green Bay tonight by setting the line at 13.5 when Green Bay's defense will give up yards, time of posession anf points to Atlanta. I am so happy that we saw Green Bay's defense shut down Brady on national television because, now, I'm getting 13.5 instead of the 7 that's more realistic. This line is a joke.
 
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Posted: #13
 
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Posted: #14
great day amd  was on alot of the same pics as well for a good day..have the same read on this monday nite game as well falcons can take control of the division with a win and even though that may seem impossible with how green bay plays at home they will put up a fight tommorow and maybe even have shot to win +13.5 is a plus..cheers 

 
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Posted: #15
Good Sunday!!

Interesting thoughts on the MNF game. I'm not sold out yet on the GB defense. I believe if the Falcons wanna come close, they will need to score a lot tonight. That's why I like the over. GL with your play!
 
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Posted: #16
...love hearing you talk finer details of football....thanks as always
 
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Posted: #17
BOL AMD
 
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Posted: #18
you make good points but I have seen Atl play live 3times this year and there off line is awful was on Gb all the way but your points have me 2nd guessing now thxs for info
 
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Posted: #19
GB averages almost 45pts a game at home and gives up 22 at home.

Now ask yourself.... What do you think they are gonna do to that bad Atlanta def.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by amd:

Sunday 6-2Atlanta +13.5


Respect your opinion amd...

Is this play as large as your Browns and Lions yesterday?
 
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Posted: #21
GL tonight Buddy 
R.I.P. Legend
 
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Posted: #22
yeah...i slapped 7 points on the -14 and took Florida down to -4 vs. Yale....Yale is the one concerns me...!
 
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Posted: #23
BOL 
 
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