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Posts: 58

TWOFAN

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2015

Posts: 289

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 12:11 AM ET #26

GL MR K, like Arizona + the pts

Ca$$$h it

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 5:01 AM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by TWOFAN:

GL MR K, like Arizona + the pts

Ca$$$h it

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jdc1177

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2014

Posts: 16

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 5:29 AM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

If it's NE vs. ARI, does that mean your theory is completely wrong and you will admit that? Who wants to see old Manning lying on the back against either the Panthers or Cards pass rush? You can't tell me it's a better story than Brady and Pats defending their title after deflategate against either the most complete team (Cards) or the new sherrif in town (Panthers). I for myself like NE vs. ARI and the game will fly over the total.Krazz, I cannot agree more with drewskie here about NE/DEN but agree completely with Cards.

I am not going to LIE, NE playing in the SB sounds good, but I am not sure they get past DEN's D this week. Not saying NE do not have a shot to win the game, heck they are Fav by 3.5 points, but if those WR's caught half of those drops, maybe the game would look a lot different yesterday, and NE's LB do not have that speed factor PIT's LB can bring, maybe most of those no gains will turn into 3-4 yards runs. A lot of IF's, but at 3.5 I do like DEN, and like them a lot, but its just a lean. ARI on the other hand have the O to bring it to CAR, and BA their HC isn't one to play by the book, everything is pointing towards ARI giving it their best, and if they do lose, I know it won't be cause of game plan and preparation.Good SUUMA, bad season for me this year, sitting at +2 units and some change, looking to end the season on a good note, might bring my unit play 3x this next 3 games.

I think you are slightly underestimating the speed/skill of NE's linebackers. Collins and Hightower is a top 5 LB combo in the league. Collins may be one of the most athletic linebackers in the league, you may have some other valid points but I think you may be going off false assumptions and not game film of the linebackers. When Denver and New England met in the regular season Denver started the game rushing the ball 15 times for under 3 yards a carry. Hightower got hurt, Denver then rushed the ball 15 times for over 8 yards a carry and three TD's.
Just some food for thought. In my opinion if New England can take Denver's running game out of the game it should be easy to stop Manning. Not saying that they will but I can see that happening as Belichick usually tries to take the opposing teams best player out of the game, which in this case is their running game.
Also in the regular season I believe New England scored 31 points if I'm not mistaken. And that was without Edelman, Amendola and with Gronkowski leaving in the second half with a knee injury. The highest targeted receiver in that game for NE was Scott Chandler, I don't think that will be the case on Sunday. Also remember that Denver's D was nearly the same in that regular season matchup (Ware did not play).
After reading your posts I think you are overthinking the game slightly. NE looks easy to bet on this week, which surely scares me too. However, if you look at the matchups in the game it really is one sided. Coaching, offense and ST going to New England and defense going to Denver (not by a huge margin in my opinion).
Just something to think about.

Best of luck.

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Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

If it's NE vs. ARI, does that mean your theory is completely wrong and you will admit that? Who wants to see old Manning lying on the back against either the Panthers or Cards pass rush? You can't tell me it's a better story than Brady and Pats defending their title after deflategate against either the most complete team (Cards) or the new sherrif in town (Panthers). I for myself like NE vs. ARI and the game will fly over the total.Krazz, I cannot agree more with drewskie here about NE/DEN but agree completely with Cards.

I am not going to LIE, NE playing in the SB sounds good, but I am not sure they get past DEN's D this week. Not saying NE do not have a shot to win the game, heck they are Fav by 3.5 points, but if those WR's caught half of those drops, maybe the game would look a lot different yesterday, and NE's LB do not have that speed factor PIT's LB can bring, maybe most of those no gains will turn into 3-4 yards runs. A lot of IF's, but at 3.5 I do like DEN, and like them a lot, but its just a lean. ARI on the other hand have the O to bring it to CAR, and BA their HC isn't one to play by the book, everything is pointing towards ARI giving it their best, and if they do lose, I know it won't be cause of game plan and preparation.Good SUUMA, bad season for me this year, sitting at +2 units and some change, looking to end the season on a good note, might bring my unit play 3x this next 3 games.

I think you are slightly underestimating the speed/skill of NE's linebackers. Collins and Hightower is a top 5 LB combo in the league. Collins may be one of the most athletic linebackers in the league, you may have some other valid points but I think you may be going off false assumptions and not game film of the linebackers. When Denver and New England met in the regular season Denver started the game rushing the ball 15 times for under 3 yards a carry. Hightower got hurt, Denver then rushed the ball 15 times for over 8 yards a carry and three TD's.
Just some food for thought. In my opinion if New England can take Denver's running game out of the game it should be easy to stop Manning. Not saying that they will but I can see that happening as Belichick usually tries to take the opposing teams best player out of the game, which in this case is their running game.
Also in the regular season I believe New England scored 31 points if I'm not mistaken. And that was without Edelman, Amendola and with Gronkowski leaving in the second half with a knee injury. The highest targeted receiver in that game for NE was Scott Chandler, I don't think that will be the case on Sunday. Also remember that Denver's D was nearly the same in that regular season matchup (Ware did not play).
After reading your posts I think you are overthinking the game slightly. NE looks easy to bet on this week, which surely scares me too. However, if you look at the matchups in the game it really is one sided. Coaching, offense and ST going to New England and defense going to Denver (not by a huge margin in my opinion).
Just something to think about.

Best of luck.

pappadoc

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2013

Posts: 13606

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 3:45 PM ET #29

BOL MRXKRAZZ

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 8:43 PM ET #30

Quote Originally Posted by jdc1177:

I am not going to LIE, NE playing in the SB sounds good, but I am not sure they get past DEN's D this week. Not saying NE do not have a shot to win the game, heck they are Fav by 3.5 points, but if those WR's caught half of those drops, maybe the game would look a lot different yesterday, and NE's LB do not have that speed factor PIT's LB can bring, maybe most of those no gains will turn into 3-4 yards runs. A lot of IF's, but at 3.5 I do like DEN, and like them a lot, but its just a lean. ARI on the other hand have the O to bring it to CAR, and BA their HC isn't one to play by the book, everything is pointing towards ARI giving it their best, and if they do lose, I know it won't be cause of game plan and preparation.Good SUUMA, bad season for me this year, sitting at +2 units and some change, looking to end the season on a good note, might bring my unit play 3x this next 3 games.

I think you are slightly underestimating the speed/skill of NE's linebackers. Collins and Hightower is a top 5 LB combo in the league. Collins may be one of the most athletic linebackers in the league, you may have some other valid points but I think you may be going off false assumptions and not game film of the linebackers. When Denver and New England met in the regular season Denver started the game rushing the ball 15 times for under 3 yards a carry. Hightower got hurt, Denver then rushed the ball 15 times for over 8 yards a carry and three TD's.
Just some food for thought. In my opinion if New England can take Denver's running game out of the game it should be easy to stop Manning. Not saying that they will but I can see that happening as Belichick usually tries to take the opposing teams best player out of the game, which in this case is their running game.
Also in the regular season I believe New England scored 31 points if I'm not mistaken. And that was without Edelman, Amendola and with Gronkowski leaving in the second half with a knee injury. The highest targeted receiver in that game for NE was Scott Chandler, I don't think that will be the case on Sunday. Also remember that Denver's D was nearly the same in that regular season matchup (Ware did not play).
After reading your posts I think you are overthinking the game slightly. NE looks easy to bet on this week, which surely scares me too. However, if you look at the matchups in the game it really is one sided. Coaching, offense and ST going to New England and defense going to Denver (not by a huge margin in my opinion).
Just something to think about.

Best of luck.

A lot can be said for both side, HFA in itself is worth something? Manning no doubt doesn't have the same arm but from what I saw last week, drops were more problematic then arm strength, I almost had to do a double look when Manning over threw DT on a deep pass, like I said many times, NE is fav this game for a reason, I like DEN, and think they have a good shot at winning this game, but for anyone to think this will be a cake walk, you got to be kidding with yourself, and one more thing, I totally think NE vs any of the 2 NFC is a better game to watch, but what does that have to do with this AFC championship game? For all we know...........Manning will smoke some legal herbs and throw for 5 TDs lol.

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Quote Originally Posted by jdc1177:

I am not going to LIE, NE playing in the SB sounds good, but I am not sure they get past DEN's D this week. Not saying NE do not have a shot to win the game, heck they are Fav by 3.5 points, but if those WR's caught half of those drops, maybe the game would look a lot different yesterday, and NE's LB do not have that speed factor PIT's LB can bring, maybe most of those no gains will turn into 3-4 yards runs. A lot of IF's, but at 3.5 I do like DEN, and like them a lot, but its just a lean. ARI on the other hand have the O to bring it to CAR, and BA their HC isn't one to play by the book, everything is pointing towards ARI giving it their best, and if they do lose, I know it won't be cause of game plan and preparation.Good SUUMA, bad season for me this year, sitting at +2 units and some change, looking to end the season on a good note, might bring my unit play 3x this next 3 games.

I think you are slightly underestimating the speed/skill of NE's linebackers. Collins and Hightower is a top 5 LB combo in the league. Collins may be one of the most athletic linebackers in the league, you may have some other valid points but I think you may be going off false assumptions and not game film of the linebackers. When Denver and New England met in the regular season Denver started the game rushing the ball 15 times for under 3 yards a carry. Hightower got hurt, Denver then rushed the ball 15 times for over 8 yards a carry and three TD's.
Just some food for thought. In my opinion if New England can take Denver's running game out of the game it should be easy to stop Manning. Not saying that they will but I can see that happening as Belichick usually tries to take the opposing teams best player out of the game, which in this case is their running game.
Also in the regular season I believe New England scored 31 points if I'm not mistaken. And that was without Edelman, Amendola and with Gronkowski leaving in the second half with a knee injury. The highest targeted receiver in that game for NE was Scott Chandler, I don't think that will be the case on Sunday. Also remember that Denver's D was nearly the same in that regular season matchup (Ware did not play).
After reading your posts I think you are overthinking the game slightly. NE looks easy to bet on this week, which surely scares me too. However, if you look at the matchups in the game it really is one sided. Coaching, offense and ST going to New England and defense going to Denver (not by a huge margin in my opinion).
Just something to think about.

Best of luck.

A lot can be said for both side, HFA in itself is worth something? Manning no doubt doesn't have the same arm but from what I saw last week, drops were more problematic then arm strength, I almost had to do a double look when Manning over threw DT on a deep pass, like I said many times, NE is fav this game for a reason, I like DEN, and think they have a good shot at winning this game, but for anyone to think this will be a cake walk, you got to be kidding with yourself, and one more thing, I totally think NE vs any of the 2 NFC is a better game to watch, but what does that have to do with this AFC championship game? For all we know...........Manning will smoke some legal herbs and throw for 5 TDs lol.

MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 8:44 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by pappadoc:

BOL MRXKRAZZ

Thanks Buddy!! Lets get them!!!

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Jose_Reyes

Hall of Fame

Joined: May, 2010

Posts: 20468

Posted: Jan. 21, 2016 - 11:14 PM ET #32

Always a good read in here. Thanks for posting, krazz. BOL this weekend.

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 22, 2016 - 8:34 AM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

Always a good read in here. Thanks for posting, krazz. BOL this weekend.

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 7:25 AM ET #34

STRONG LEANS-

DEN and ARI

DEN - D and running game lead to championships? Lets see!!!

ARI - Love their vertical passing game in this matchup, and CAM been on fire but love ARI's CB speed on CAR's WR speed.

Unless I wake up with a bad dream LOL, those will be my plays.

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undermysac

Legend

Joined: Dec, 2014

Posts: 47733

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 10:05 AM ET #35

GL Krazz

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CalBear

Hall of Fame

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 21426

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 1:42 PM ET #36

Krazz

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EzzMoney

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 181

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 4:05 PM ET #37

With you on AZ +3.5, yet unsure how Carson will play. If Carson plays like he did in regular season, AZ has a decent chance. Anything less, Carolina rolls. Panther's ZONE defense, coupled with absence of a good slot corner is the medicine that AZ needs to advance. (Finnegan, on Fitzgerald or John Brown is a mismatch in AZ's favor). It is all for naught if Carson plays like he did in the divisional round.

IMHO Peyton is the weak link due to his PHYSICAL limitation in NE @ DEN game. Belichick will exploit that. While Denver D has been impressive they are now somewhat injured as compared to the regular season game against NE played in Denver. That game went into overtime. Brady did bring Pats back to tie the score 24-24 with a FG with 1:09 left in 4th qtr (no Edleman, Amandola, Gronk, Steven Jackson).

I will opt for live wagering after assessing Manning and Carson's effectiveness. Not sure if I bet the Spread or Totals but there are favorable numbers available in live wagering if you are paying attention. Went 4-0 in divisional playoffs last week but we all know past performances don't guarantee future success.

Here are some telling stats from the 4th qtr of NE @ DEN regular season game: Den win 30-24.

Brandon Bolden 63 yd pass from Tom Brady (Stephen Gostkowski kick) 14:50 3 Plays , 65 Yards, 0:17	21	7
	C.J. Anderson 15 yd run (Brandon McManus kick) 12:34 4 Plays , 36 Yards, 1:41	21	14
	Brandon McManus 21 yd FG 6:08 9 Plays , 52 Yards, 4:50	21	17
	Andre Caldwell 4 yd pass from Brock Osweiler (Brandon McManus kick) 1:09 5 Plays , 83 Yards, 1:22	21	24
	Stephen Gostkowski 47 yd FG 0:00 5 Plays , 51 Yards, 1:09	24	24
		NE	Den
	C.J. Anderson 48 yd run 12:32 3 Plays , 57 Yards, 1:19

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glyde69

Captain

Joined: Sep, 2005

Posts: 7407

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 4:16 PM ET #38

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 8:16 PM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

GL Krazz

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 8:19 PM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by CalBear:

Krazz

0

MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 8:21 PM ET #41

Quote Originally Posted by EzzMoney:

With you on AZ +3.5, yet unsure how Carson will play. If Carson plays like he did in regular season, AZ has a decent chance. Anything less, Carolina rolls. Panther's ZONE defense, coupled with absence of a good slot corner is the medicine that AZ needs to advance. (Finnegan, on Fitzgerald or John Brown is a mismatch in AZ's favor). It is all for naught if Carson plays like he did in the divisional round.

IMHO Peyton is the weak link due to his PHYSICAL limitation in NE @ DEN game. Belichick will exploit that. While Denver D has been impressive they are now somewhat injured as compared to the regular season game against NE played in Denver. That game went into overtime. Brady did bring Pats back to tie the score 24-24 with a FG with 1:09 left in 4th qtr (no Edleman, Amandola, Gronk, Steven Jackson).

I will opt for live wagering after assessing Manning and Carson's effectiveness. Not sure if I bet the Spread or Totals but there are favorable numbers available in live wagering if you are paying attention. Went 4-0 in divisional playoffs last week but we all know past performances don't guarantee future success.

Here are some telling stats from the 4th qtr of NE @ DEN regular season game: Den win 30-24.

Brandon Bolden 63 yd pass from Tom Brady (Stephen Gostkowski kick) 14:50 3 Plays , 65 Yards, 0:17	21	7
	C.J. Anderson 15 yd run (Brandon McManus kick) 12:34 4 Plays , 36 Yards, 1:41	21	14
	Brandon McManus 21 yd FG 6:08 9 Plays , 52 Yards, 4:50	21	17
	Andre Caldwell 4 yd pass from Brock Osweiler (Brandon McManus kick) 1:09 5 Plays , 83 Yards, 1:22	21	24
	Stephen Gostkowski 47 yd FG 0:00 5 Plays , 51 Yards, 1:09	24	24
		NE	Den
	C.J. Anderson 48 yd run 12:32 3 Plays , 57 Yards, 1:19

Good luck, lets see.

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 23, 2016 - 8:24 PM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 2:59 AM ET #43

Line currently sitting +3 -106, +127 for both DEN and ARI, so going to wait and see if I can catch a better juice line by waiting.

All major sites have DEN and ARI at even juice so won't rush into placing my bets yet.

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Macwestie1

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2004

Posts: 154199

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 8:27 AM ET #44

Brady, Manning, Palmer & Newton
Doesn't get much better then this Sunday
GL MrXKrazz *handshake ;)

What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion with a beeper!

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 8:41 AM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

Brady, Manning, Palmer & Newton
Doesn't get much better then this Sunday
GL MrXKrazz *handshake ;)

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 8:45 AM ET #46

DEN +3 -106 6.666 units

DEN +127 6.666 units

No need for a 500 word write up, or trying to guess a story line for a game in FEB. Defence and running the ball been the recipe for Championship for years before I started watching football, home field advantage is called ADVANTAGE for a reason.

LETS GO DEN!!!!!!!!!!

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 8:48 AM ET #47

Still leaning ARI but won't make a play until after the DEN game is over with, but something is making me like CAR........... going to think this one long and hard, CAR's D won't miss those sacks like GB did, but if they do miss like GB Palmer will make them pay with their vertical passing game, ARI's D can be torch if their biltz do not get home, so to me both teams have their edge and weakness, BUT still leaning ARI, just not as strong a lean as I had earlier in the week.

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 8:57 AM ET #48

BOL Krazz, may the better team win.

Road teams are 69-56 ATS in the playoffs since 2003, Road favs are 11-8 ATS and 15-6 SU. Just regarding the home field advantage. BOL!

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MRxKrazz

All-Star

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 10573

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 9:15 AM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

BOL Krazz, may the better team win.

Road teams are 69-56 ATS in the playoffs since 2003, Road favs are 11-8 ATS and 15-6 SU. Just regarding the home field advantage. BOL!

Thanks SUUMA!! Going to throw all stats and stuff out the window this game, truth be told, no sane human would take DEN, like everything you said, NE passes the eye ball test, but I still think the reasons I like DEN will take place.

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suuma

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 4455

Posted: Jan. 24, 2016 - 9:20 AM ET #50

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MRxKRAZZ NFL CONFERENCE CHAMP WEEKEND

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