Week #1 was fun, and now with some games to put under our belts moving forward, time to get serious and WIN some money each and every week. I will drop my quick leans for week #2 then get into my film work and post my final plays before kickoff, all constructive discussions are welcome!!
2015-2016
YTD 108-97-6
YTD +46.164 units
2014-2015
YTD 112-86-3
YTD +96.257
2013-2014
YTD 136-96-5 YTD +113.62units
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2016-2017
YTD 3-4-1
YTD -2.29 units
Week #1 was fun, and now with some games to put under our belts moving forward, time to get serious and WIN some money each and every week. I will drop my quick leans for week #2 then get into my film work and post my final plays before kickoff, all constructive discussions are welcome!!
These leans are off the top of my head from the few games i watched in week #1, without stats, film work and line moves. Will post Strong leans after film work and plays before kickoff. All discussion are welcome.
NYJ @ BUF (PK)
NYK (PK)
First thought was BUF own these JETS, but with word that Watkins might take a few weeks off and line of BUF -3 moving to PK, I will assume those words are pretty close to being true, without a true #1 WR taking the top off the NYJ's D, I do not see how BUF's O will have success in this game, haven't watch the BAL BUF game but the NYJ's O are pretty well balanced, I like the NYJ for now.
KC @ HOU (-2)
HOU -2
Was KC really that impressive in their comeback? Or was SD shock and depress after KA torn up his knee and will now miss the rest of the season? Factor that along with HOU having that ugly lost on their mind and a capable QB along with a real NFL RB and WR pieces to go along with NUK, one got to really like the home team here.
DAL @ WAS (-3)
WAS -3
Line should have -3.5 off the top of my head, guess the close game DAL played and the way WAS lost on MNF made this a whole lot closer. I like Prescott and Dal but they aren't Big Ben, AB and D Will on the O side and without those 3 pieces on PIT I see WAS's D playing like how I thought they would entering their game vs PIT, 2 good CB with a good safety with ball hawking skills should if nothing else contain and get some 3 and outs, Norman or Breeland is a prefect matchup on Dez, on the flip side, I can easily see WAS dominating DAL's D on all 3 levels, running game will open up after WAS open Dal's can of whoop a s s through the air.
SEA (-3.5) @ LA
SEA -3.5
Its no joke how LA got shut out in SF, shut down Gurley and everything else will work itself out when playing the LA Rams. Their D isn't the same as the past few years, losing those pieces they did will take time to adjust.
GB (-2.5) @ MIN
I fully expect GB to dominate this game from start to finish to send MIN a message, with Teddy hurt, GB smells blood.
PHI @ CHI (-3)
I will take the home team welcoming a rookie QB on his first road game any day of the week.
Be back after film work and really get into these games, might add a few or take out a game or 2.
LETS DO THIS!!!
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These leans are off the top of my head from the few games i watched in week #1, without stats, film work and line moves. Will post Strong leans after film work and plays before kickoff. All discussion are welcome.
NYJ @ BUF (PK)
NYK (PK)
First thought was BUF own these JETS, but with word that Watkins might take a few weeks off and line of BUF -3 moving to PK, I will assume those words are pretty close to being true, without a true #1 WR taking the top off the NYJ's D, I do not see how BUF's O will have success in this game, haven't watch the BAL BUF game but the NYJ's O are pretty well balanced, I like the NYJ for now.
KC @ HOU (-2)
HOU -2
Was KC really that impressive in their comeback? Or was SD shock and depress after KA torn up his knee and will now miss the rest of the season? Factor that along with HOU having that ugly lost on their mind and a capable QB along with a real NFL RB and WR pieces to go along with NUK, one got to really like the home team here.
DAL @ WAS (-3)
WAS -3
Line should have -3.5 off the top of my head, guess the close game DAL played and the way WAS lost on MNF made this a whole lot closer. I like Prescott and Dal but they aren't Big Ben, AB and D Will on the O side and without those 3 pieces on PIT I see WAS's D playing like how I thought they would entering their game vs PIT, 2 good CB with a good safety with ball hawking skills should if nothing else contain and get some 3 and outs, Norman or Breeland is a prefect matchup on Dez, on the flip side, I can easily see WAS dominating DAL's D on all 3 levels, running game will open up after WAS open Dal's can of whoop a s s through the air.
SEA (-3.5) @ LA
SEA -3.5
Its no joke how LA got shut out in SF, shut down Gurley and everything else will work itself out when playing the LA Rams. Their D isn't the same as the past few years, losing those pieces they did will take time to adjust.
GB (-2.5) @ MIN
I fully expect GB to dominate this game from start to finish to send MIN a message, with Teddy hurt, GB smells blood.
PHI @ CHI (-3)
I will take the home team welcoming a rookie QB on his first road game any day of the week.
Be back after film work and really get into these games, might add a few or take out a game or 2.
Jaguars game is really sticking out to me. Feel they got it the opposite
I think its spot on, if the KA injury didn't happen I think this game might have been SD -7, Jac is an up and coming team but i think it will take them a few more games before they start to show how good they can be this season. After going through the films of week #1 I will see if SD or JAC have any lure for me to play their game.
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Quote Originally Posted by bigbadlag:
Jaguars game is really sticking out to me. Feel they got it the opposite
I think its spot on, if the KA injury didn't happen I think this game might have been SD -7, Jac is an up and coming team but i think it will take them a few more games before they start to show how good they can be this season. After going through the films of week #1 I will see if SD or JAC have any lure for me to play their game.
I go back watch all the games week prior, on games I am putting money on or have a lean, I will go into Coaches film mode with game pass and look for every angle that will give me an edge.
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Quote Originally Posted by lajohn:
What do you mean when you say: ..."film work"?
I go back watch all the games week prior, on games I am putting money on or have a lean, I will go into Coaches film mode with game pass and look for every angle that will give me an edge.
I go back watch all the games week prior, on games I am putting money on or have a lean, I will go into Coaches film mode with game pass and look for every angle that will give me an edge.
You're kidding me!!! How do you find the time??? Now THAT is "research"!!! ...hope it's profitable for you.
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Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:
Quote Originally Posted by lajohn:
What do you mean when you say:..."film work"?
I go back watch all the games week prior, on games I am putting money on or have a lean, I will go into Coaches film mode with game pass and look for every angle that will give me an edge.
You're kidding me!!! How do you find the time??? Now THAT is "research"!!! ...hope it's profitable for you.
Doesn't the Green Bay line seem short to you? -2 or -2.5 in some places. You even said you expect Green Bay to dominate start to finish. Why don't the odds makers agree with you? Vikings in their new home with a great defense. hmmmmm
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Doesn't the Green Bay line seem short to you? -2 or -2.5 in some places. You even said you expect Green Bay to dominate start to finish. Why don't the odds makers agree with you? Vikings in their new home with a great defense. hmmmmm
I go back watch all the games week prior, on games I am putting money on or have a lean, I will go into Coaches film mode with game pass and look for every angle that will give me an edge.
You're kidding me!!! How do you find the time??? Now THAT is "research"!!! ...hope it's profitable for you.
The condensed mode under game pass is about 25-40 mins a game, the Coach film mode is kind of intense with time, but I do not watch all 16 games under that mode, only games I am going to bet money, Im not sure how much a normal capper bets, to me some people see 20 bucks like 200, and some people see 2000 like 20, using a unit count makes more sense to me in these public forums, 1 unit can be whatever a capper is comfortable with. 4 games a day at night I normally get done with all the games in 3 days, I watch all the televise games live, and when under Coach film mode, some plays I will fast forward. The last 3 years I have posted on Covers have been profitable but there are bad runs, I was in the red ( negative ) for almost 10 weeks last season, and at one point I believe I was down 30 units, but ended up +46 units.
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Quote Originally Posted by lajohn:
I go back watch all the games week prior, on games I am putting money on or have a lean, I will go into Coaches film mode with game pass and look for every angle that will give me an edge.
You're kidding me!!! How do you find the time??? Now THAT is "research"!!! ...hope it's profitable for you.
The condensed mode under game pass is about 25-40 mins a game, the Coach film mode is kind of intense with time, but I do not watch all 16 games under that mode, only games I am going to bet money, Im not sure how much a normal capper bets, to me some people see 20 bucks like 200, and some people see 2000 like 20, using a unit count makes more sense to me in these public forums, 1 unit can be whatever a capper is comfortable with. 4 games a day at night I normally get done with all the games in 3 days, I watch all the televise games live, and when under Coach film mode, some plays I will fast forward. The last 3 years I have posted on Covers have been profitable but there are bad runs, I was in the red ( negative ) for almost 10 weeks last season, and at one point I believe I was down 30 units, but ended up +46 units.
Doesn't the Green Bay line seem short to you? -2 or -2.5 in some places. You even said you expect Green Bay to dominate start to finish. Why don't the odds makers agree with you? Vikings in their new home with a great defense. hmmmmm
Haven't really thought that far yet, off the top of my head its screaming holly sh*t nice short line for GB, with MIN playing with their backup QB , but now that you mention this, -2 to -2.5 does seem short and inviting GB money, I will look into stats, and film and come back with an explanation when I post my Strong leans, thanks for bringing this up!!
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Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:
Doesn't the Green Bay line seem short to you? -2 or -2.5 in some places. You even said you expect Green Bay to dominate start to finish. Why don't the odds makers agree with you? Vikings in their new home with a great defense. hmmmmm
Haven't really thought that far yet, off the top of my head its screaming holly sh*t nice short line for GB, with MIN playing with their backup QB , but now that you mention this, -2 to -2.5 does seem short and inviting GB money, I will look into stats, and film and come back with an explanation when I post my Strong leans, thanks for bringing this up!!
I'm going to start out on how much I hate taking any road team, let a lone a road team playing against a division rival that they have won 5 straight games against, but I find this game to be the perfect spot for the NYJ to snap their 5 game mini losing streak playing on the road in this game.
I came out with 17 - 15 NYJ win if this game goes ugly from start to finish for the JETS.
Lets get into the matchup of O vs D, CIN threw an amazing 366 yards on 23 completions last week on the NYJ behind what I believe to be AJG's finest game in the past 2 season, Revis is washed up, AJG was too fast and too athletic for him all game long, something Watkins did last season to Revis, but Watkins just isn't there yet this season, rather its his injury or not in game shape yet due to missing most of the preseason and training camp, Revis should be able too not let him blow up with a fat stat line, the other WR's on BUF sad to say just aren't much of a worry to me in this matchup, on the ground BUF have McCoy who seem to be the focal point of their O to start off this season and rightfully so, he is a key stud when his game is on, but he only had a very avg stat line of 16 attempts for 58 yards which carry a 3.6 avg per carry. Gio and Hill combined a 14 attempts with 56 yards 4.2 yards avg, McCoy also caught the ball all 4 times he was targeted for a very weak 12 yards, 3 yards per catch. If any saw anything form the JETS D last week, their front 4 played insanely good, the second level LB's did an OK job as well, if their back 4 had any kind of answer, without those miss kicks this game would have easily been a NYJ win. I see this matchup as a win for the JETS, unless Watkins goes off like AJG did, I just do not see BUF dominating with their O in this game. On the flip side, as a whole I think CIN have a way better D than BUF, who only dressed 5 D linemen last week, they wont have M. Williams who left for MIA , and their real start player Dareus for another 3 games, the once key strength of this D is now missing 2 key guys to affect and cost Ryan Fitzmagic to be off his game, and this will also allow Forte who is a total UPGRADE form Ivory and Ridley last season proving it in his first JETS game going for 96 yards on 22 carries and catching another 5 balls for 59 yards, I think this will be the KEY factor the NYJ's come out on top in this game, the dump offs and screens will move the chains nicely along with Marshall and Decker. Probably a few more points I can point out but these are the main reasons I like the JETS.
No games are easy let a lone a division rival road game, but I will take my chances on the NYJ's who are the better overall team right now.
I don't switch away form Strong Leans often but if some craziness of injury or point swing take place I might lay off or take the other side, but for now my mind is set on the NYJ come Thursday night, will post official play closer to kickoff day.
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STRONG LEAN-
NYJ (PK)
I'm going to start out on how much I hate taking any road team, let a lone a road team playing against a division rival that they have won 5 straight games against, but I find this game to be the perfect spot for the NYJ to snap their 5 game mini losing streak playing on the road in this game.
I came out with 17 - 15 NYJ win if this game goes ugly from start to finish for the JETS.
Lets get into the matchup of O vs D, CIN threw an amazing 366 yards on 23 completions last week on the NYJ behind what I believe to be AJG's finest game in the past 2 season, Revis is washed up, AJG was too fast and too athletic for him all game long, something Watkins did last season to Revis, but Watkins just isn't there yet this season, rather its his injury or not in game shape yet due to missing most of the preseason and training camp, Revis should be able too not let him blow up with a fat stat line, the other WR's on BUF sad to say just aren't much of a worry to me in this matchup, on the ground BUF have McCoy who seem to be the focal point of their O to start off this season and rightfully so, he is a key stud when his game is on, but he only had a very avg stat line of 16 attempts for 58 yards which carry a 3.6 avg per carry. Gio and Hill combined a 14 attempts with 56 yards 4.2 yards avg, McCoy also caught the ball all 4 times he was targeted for a very weak 12 yards, 3 yards per catch. If any saw anything form the JETS D last week, their front 4 played insanely good, the second level LB's did an OK job as well, if their back 4 had any kind of answer, without those miss kicks this game would have easily been a NYJ win. I see this matchup as a win for the JETS, unless Watkins goes off like AJG did, I just do not see BUF dominating with their O in this game. On the flip side, as a whole I think CIN have a way better D than BUF, who only dressed 5 D linemen last week, they wont have M. Williams who left for MIA , and their real start player Dareus for another 3 games, the once key strength of this D is now missing 2 key guys to affect and cost Ryan Fitzmagic to be off his game, and this will also allow Forte who is a total UPGRADE form Ivory and Ridley last season proving it in his first JETS game going for 96 yards on 22 carries and catching another 5 balls for 59 yards, I think this will be the KEY factor the NYJ's come out on top in this game, the dump offs and screens will move the chains nicely along with Marshall and Decker. Probably a few more points I can point out but these are the main reasons I like the JETS.
No games are easy let a lone a division rival road game, but I will take my chances on the NYJ's who are the better overall team right now.
I don't switch away form Strong Leans often but if some craziness of injury or point swing take place I might lay off or take the other side, but for now my mind is set on the NYJ come Thursday night, will post official play closer to kickoff day.
This young Vikings D has the potential to dominate any offense in the league, esp at home. That's my only thought there.
MIN do have a very young and Strong D, but end of the day, need to have more points than the other team to win a game, with that said however, I have not took peek into this matchup yet, and will do so soon.
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Quote Originally Posted by YouWish:
This young Vikings D has the potential to dominate any offense in the league, esp at home. That's my only thought there.
MIN do have a very young and Strong D, but end of the day, need to have more points than the other team to win a game, with that said however, I have not took peek into this matchup yet, and will do so soon.
I think dallas establishes there run game here and it opens up play action for the rookie and some chain movers w his legs. I think the skins try and find theres here as well. I also think they try for the big hitters more ofton. So when you go thru is the under a considertion. i think dalas wins out right.
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I think dallas establishes there run game here and it opens up play action for the rookie and some chain movers w his legs. I think the skins try and find theres here as well. I also think they try for the big hitters more ofton. So when you go thru is the under a considertion. i think dalas wins out right.
I think dallas establishes there run game here and it opens up play action for the rookie and some chain movers w his legs. I think the skins try and find theres here as well. I also think they try for the big hitters more ofton. So when you go thru is the under a considertion. i think dalas wins out right.
Watching films now, just went over the DAL NYG, will have something to say after I go over the PIT WAS game, but I like how DAL shorten the 60 mins game to 40 mins with their running game. Im not a total player at all, but YES under seem like a good play since DAL runs the sh*t out of the clock.
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Quote Originally Posted by tuskermedic37:
I think dallas establishes there run game here and it opens up play action for the rookie and some chain movers w his legs. I think the skins try and find theres here as well. I also think they try for the big hitters more ofton. So when you go thru is the under a considertion. i think dalas wins out right.
Watching films now, just went over the DAL NYG, will have something to say after I go over the PIT WAS game, but I like how DAL shorten the 60 mins game to 40 mins with their running game. Im not a total player at all, but YES under seem like a good play since DAL runs the sh*t out of the clock.
Going to keep my thoughts as short as possible, cause in all honestly we can all go on forever lol. I see this game being a shoot out, but a game the NYG will be doing most of the shooting, and when they do run the ball, the normal 1-2 yard gains will be 3-4 yards on this NO D, and they will move the chain at will, it will be BS to say Brees can be stop but I can see the NYG D stopping them enough to make this a every comfortable game to watch if your money is on the NYG. Unless Eli, OBJ, and their whole team come down with the FLU or get hit with a virus, this game will be a play.
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STRONG LEAN-
NYG (-4.5)
Going to keep my thoughts as short as possible, cause in all honestly we can all go on forever lol. I see this game being a shoot out, but a game the NYG will be doing most of the shooting, and when they do run the ball, the normal 1-2 yard gains will be 3-4 yards on this NO D, and they will move the chain at will, it will be BS to say Brees can be stop but I can see the NYG D stopping them enough to make this a every comfortable game to watch if your money is on the NYG. Unless Eli, OBJ, and their whole team come down with the FLU or get hit with a virus, this game will be a play.
PIT is one of the better O teams in the league, DAL on the other is the exact opposite, only way DAL have a shot is if their running game is on point and Beasly and Witten eat up the underneath coverage, I am talking about a perfect game, I like Prescott but he is far from being big Ben, Dez is a PRO Blower in his own rights but no one is AB!! Norman and Breeland will be more than enough to cover DAL top 2 WR. On the flip side, WAS have the fire power to make DAL play catch up, I underestimated PIT's speed on D, DAL's D is their weakness and speed isn't something thats going to on on their side in this game, I will gladly take the short FG and win line on the home team that have the better D and O this season.
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STRONG LEAN-
WAS (-2)
PIT is one of the better O teams in the league, DAL on the other is the exact opposite, only way DAL have a shot is if their running game is on point and Beasly and Witten eat up the underneath coverage, I am talking about a perfect game, I like Prescott but he is far from being big Ben, Dez is a PRO Blower in his own rights but no one is AB!! Norman and Breeland will be more than enough to cover DAL top 2 WR. On the flip side, WAS have the fire power to make DAL play catch up, I underestimated PIT's speed on D, DAL's D is their weakness and speed isn't something thats going to on on their side in this game, I will gladly take the short FG and win line on the home team that have the better D and O this season.
Rex already won twice last year and send the NYJ packing by eliminating them from the playoffs in the last game, all that hate and mind of revenge is gone along with the strength of the BUF D, they only dressed 5 D linemen last week, with their stud DT missing 3 more games, and Super Mario playing in MIA, they wont be able to make Fitz look as horrible as they did last year, if you want to hear more of my thought scroll up.
LETS CASH NYJ!!!
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NYJ -1.5 -105 2 units
Rex already won twice last year and send the NYJ packing by eliminating them from the playoffs in the last game, all that hate and mind of revenge is gone along with the strength of the BUF D, they only dressed 5 D linemen last week, with their stud DT missing 3 more games, and Super Mario playing in MIA, they wont be able to make Fitz look as horrible as they did last year, if you want to hear more of my thought scroll up.
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, on the Jets and GB as well
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