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I think if i have this right hese are the plays that fall under

New Orleans-Tenn-Buff..I could be missing some. Thanks for the system

We all have different approaches. YTD stats and players on the field (especially in the NFL) often mean very little in the league where any team can win on any given Sunday. The Patriots looked legit going to Buffalo last week while Buffalo looked overrated after beating a bad KC team and an average Oakland team. Yet Buffalo won that game as a sizeable dog. The best approach in the NFL is to look at the stats, situations, and every other info avaiable without giving too much credit to any of this. Once you are able to ballance all that info and use it as your advantage you will win money. Without that ballance NFL can be a pain in the ass for the bettors.

***Your feedback is welcome, but please do not tell me that a bad team can not cover the spread against a good team. This is a gambling forum, and in gambling, bad teams cover the spread just as often as good teams. Actually, in last 18 years losing teams are 874-815 ATS against winning teams***

New Orleans is stil relying mostly on their offense and Jacksonville has been a stellar defensive team so far, both against the run and against the pass. New Orleans hasnt been on the road in three weeks & Jacksonville hasnt been at home in three weeks and that is usually a situational edge for the home team. Home dogs of more than 4 points after two road losses of 10 points or more combined are 15-0 ats against teams that played at least two home games in a ror and won the last one as favorite. With two divisional road games comming up for New Orleans, this game looks less important for them. Jacksonville usually plays much better at home than on the road. Last week they played in horrible weather conditions with their rookie QB making his first NFL start. This week they are at home and will be pumped up to get their new leader his first NFL win. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7

Buffalo is the biggest surprise so far this season in the NFL, at least record wise. But Cincinnati is surprising too with the way they play and compete. They are 1-2 but they were in position to win all three games so far, all that with a rookie QB and a banged up team that lost some key players from last season. The Bills have a great streak going on against the Bengals but after their win against New England and before playing Eagles and Giants in the next two weeks, they are in a bad situation this week. The favorites that won their last game as home dogs trailing after the third are 4-16 ATS. Buffalo won their last game against new England many years ago, and they are due for a letdown here. Their win was extremely emotional and even the best teams out there are prone to letdowns in such situations. CINCINNATI BENGALS +3.

It is really refreshing to see the Redskins playing well, especially with less superstars on that roster than usual. But after playing their big rivals on MNF last week, they have to refocus and play a winless Saint Louis team on the road, and that is not going to e easy. The underdog covered 8 of last 10 in this series. Winless teams with at least 2 straight ATS losses, losing their games by 14 or more on average and losing their last game as a dog of more than 3 points are 19-0 ATS vs teams with at least one win on the season. Winless teams are usually good bets ATS as the season goes on, especially when on negative ATS streak. The longer their winless streak goes, the better they are against the spread. Simple logic applies there. Most of the NFL bettors are looking at SU records only. The problem is, winless teams cover the spread too. SAINT LOUIS RAMS +3 (BUY 0.5)

It is unusual to see two non divisional teams that play each other two straight seasons, both times in same venue, especially during the regular season. Atlanta won at Seattle last year and they are back there again this season. The favorites in this situation are 1-10 ATS if they won and covered that previous meeting and if the opponent is comming into this game after a win. Seattle is not playing well, but their defense is bailing them out. They only allowed 5 offensive touchdowns in 3 games and they are ranked #3 in defensive 3rd down % in the entire league. Atlanta played against a divisional opponent last week and a SNF game the week before, and next week they host the defending champs Green Bay Packers. The things are just not going their way this season, especially on the road where they outgained both opponents but lost both games. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +4.5

The Vikings are 0-3 after leading 17-0 and 20-0 at the half in their last two games, both at home, and 17-7 in week #1 at San Diego. I can understand why many expect them to win at KC this week. They are a team that could have been 3-0, and KC is 0-3 without really challenging anyone so far. OK, maybe they came close last week against SD, but thats it. Then why then opened -1 against presumably the worst team in the NFL ? Because it is not easy to focus after such a horrible three game stretch. It is actually the first time in 20+ years that a team lost three straight after leading by at least 10 at the half in all three games. And it wasnt like any other loss for them. They lost to a team that they beat 13 straight times at home prior to last week, and they lost it in overtime. Road teams that lost in OT the week before after leading by 12 or more at the half and after scoring 10 or less in the 2nd half are 0-10 SU and 1-9 ATS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +3 (BUY 0.5)

BOL!

Lol, I am against you on every pick on Covers NFL Contest(so I have no real money involved lol). But I got NO at -6.5, Minnesota at -1.5 and Washington at -1.5 earlier on before the spreads changed, so I am feeling a bit more confident with the swings. It also makes it easier for you to take the + cuz its a higher spread.