In the first half of the season, road teams favored by 6 or more and 14.5 or less are 0-16 ATS after a win, if their opponent lost as home dog the week before. Last two seasons those favorites lost all three games straight up and against the spread despite being favored by 6, 6.5 and 7 points. Those games were: SD losing at OAK last year as -6. fave, IND losing at JAX as -7 fave last year and WAS losing at DET in 2009 as 6.5 pts fave. Before you tell me that Indianapolis is horrible, I will just remind you that Oakland was 1-3 SU and ATS, losing 2 games in a row before that game against SD last season, Jaxonville was 1-2 SU and ATS losing two games in a row before that game against the Colts, and Detroit was 0-2 SU and ATS before beating Washington. I dont really see Indianapolis winning against Pittsburgh but covering the big number playing for pride at home,with a vet backup QB on national TV is definately possible. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +10.5
Home favorites of more than 3 and less than 11 points after a home win are only 6-14 ATS if their opponent won as road favorite the week before. The Colts were in this same situation against Texas two years ago and they barely won, but Texans covered the spread. The Texas rarely win on the road, but when they do, watch out for them if they are getting points the following week. 7-0 ATS in last 7 as underdogs after a road win. As for the Saints, they are now 5-14 ATS in last 19 when favored after a win. I guess, the Saints are overpriced anyways, and that is especially true after they win a game or two. This is a situation where one team is favored because they had a better season the year before, or because they are simply more popular among the public bettors. HOUSTON TEXANS +4
Road favorites after a home favorite win are 3-16-1 ATS in first half of the season against teams that lost as home favorites the week before. Detroit hasnt been favored in Minnesota in more than 20 years and this is unknown territory for them. They lost last 13 road games against the Vikings. They started 2-0 five times in last 20+ years and lost their game #3 all 5 times both straight up and against the spread. They Vikings started 0-2 three times in last 6 years and won their game #3 every time both straight up and against the spread. For the Vikings, its <been there, done that>, and for the Lions this game is something new. I will take the team that faced this situation before, with a QB who saw it all. MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3.
Road favorites on 6 days rest after at least two home favorite wins are 12-26 ATS against teams that lost as road dogs the week before. This situation happened 3 times against the Raiders in last 7 years and the Raiders won outright as big dogs every time. In 2009 they beat Eagles as 14 points underdogs, in 2008 they beat the Jets as 3 points underdogs, and in 2004 they beat the Ravens as 7 pts underdogs. I guess, it is not easy to travel across the country to play the Raiders in Oakland after enjoying a lot of success at home in at least two straight weeks. That place out thare can be intimidating. This system is especially true if the road team was favored by 5 or more in each of previous two weeks. Then they are 6-20 ATS in that road game. Obviosly, the easier those home games are, the more dangerous the road game will be. OAKLAND RAIDERS +3
Home favorites after a road dog loss are 57-107 ATS against teams that lost as road dogs the week before. This one looks unbelievable but it is true. This is one of the best angles in pro football year after year. Dont get scared away with KC and their poor results this season or last week. This system suggested taking the dog that lost by more than 4 touchdowns the week before 14 times, and the dog went 11-3 straight up and 12-2 against the spread. The last time this happened was last year and it was the Chiefs who won as road dogs at Rams. Actually, this system suggested taking Chiefs 6 times and the Chiefs covered the spread all 6 times. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +14.5
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