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*** New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins ***

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Posted: #26
Brady all day thank you 
Let's Get Paid
 
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Posted: #27
I don’t see it happening. But good luck. 
 
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Posted: #28
Got this at 12 last week and may play under live after first TD.
GL
 
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Posted: #29

Rule number 1 in NFL betting. Never bet against the Patriots. Pats are 13-3 ats in their last 16 road games, Pats are 10-1 ats vs a team with a losing record, Pats are 9-0 ats in their last 9 games on grass

 
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Posted: #30
Final plays locked in:
  • Dolphins +11 -105 ($10,000)
  • Patriots TT Under 30 -119 ($1,000)
  • Dolphins +480 ($500)
  • Dolphins +7.5 +145 ($500)
Let's cash. Tail at your own risk.


 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Final plays locked in:Dolphins +11 -105 ($10,000)Patriots TT Under 30 -119 ($1,000)Dolphins +480 ($500)Dolphins +7.5 +145 ($500)Let's cash. Tail at your own risk.

 

I don't think Miami wins, but I don't see how they don't cover in this spot at home and the Pats without Gronk.  I mean it is Jay Cutlet so who knows, but I'm tailing with the points and leaning under.  Could end up 24-14 and push at 48 worst case scenario.  waiting on my book to release TTs.  Love the under 30 play.  BOL!

 
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Posted: #32
Always a lump in my throat when going against the PATS, but
last time without Gronk, Pats won only 19-14 at Bucs on 10/5.


Hoping for low scoring game again and maybe tonite's officiating crew will help... they say games with fewer penalties more likely to go under.

Pete Morelli: Crews of this 11-year veteran Morelli have been way below average in calling penalties, thus many Unders in those games. If Cheffers is perceived as an Over Referee, then Morelli is definitely perceived as an Under one and worth watching.
-sportsbookreview.com  Aug 2015
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Final plays locked in:
  • Dolphins +11 -105 ($10,000)
  • Patriots TT Under 30 -119 ($1,000)
  • Dolphins +480 ($500)
  • Dolphins +7.5 +145 ($500)
Let's cash. Tail at your own risk.


10k on Miami tonite huh? Big fan of yours bud; interesting play though. I haven't read the thread but definitely will. 

 
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Posted: #34

Play the trend for the last 6 prime time games...dogs cover the spread and even have a shot at winning. I expect tonight's theatre performance to follow the same trend. BOL to all tailing. I will sit this one out just to keep my sanity. 

 
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Posted: #35
Mind Set of public tonight... 

Pats won by 18 at home a few weeks ago..

They should be able to win by 11 on the road..
 
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Posted: #36
Likely the same mindset of Steeler backers last night..

Won by 17 in Baltimore.. -5.5 is easy..  
 
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Posted: #37
You can find Pete Morelli crew games for 2017 here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/officials/MorePe0r.htm

Avg of 10 games this year. 39.6 pts.  
In 10 games (involving 20 teams), only 2 teams  scored over 28pts.

Good Luck LC
 
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Posted: #38
Bol LC I am on Miami +11 for a dime as well 
 
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Posted: #39

I can see Dolphins with a backdoor cover for sure. Especially at 11. Down 17 with 3 minutes left and cover. That's a solid pick. I'm teasing the Pats and the over 6.5 points myself. 

Everyone makes a big deal about Gronk but Pats ran all over the Dolphins last game so this game I full expect them to go 5 wide with Lewis, Burkhead, Ammendola, Cooks, and HOGAN who they get back. 

Pats will win 27-17 I'm thinking. 

 
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Posted: #40
I am just worried about the mental errors by the dolphins and turnovers as well that could be spread busters.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by JTNM60:

Rule number 1 in NFL betting. Never bet against the Patriots. Pats are 13-3 ats in their last 16 road games, Pats are 10-1 ats vs a team with a losing record, Pats are 9-0 ats in their last 9 games on grass


Difficult to debate those #s . Patriots most times break your heart when fading them ... for fuggin years . Not today , GL 
 
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Posted: #42
                
 
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Posted: #43

an_angelan_angelan_angel Xmas gift Miami , Tomb may sit Down a lot tonight , let's Miami control the clock 

 
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Posted: #44

Don’t fade LC when he is running hot...
 
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Posted: #45
i respect your plays, but i don't know about going against the Pats here, they are rolling and are on cylinders.  Miami has to score 17, i'm not sure they do that unless Miami's D  step up and force some turnovers.  There were better games to bet on yesterday and i don't trust Cutler, he sucks.  For miami bettors, this game will be a nail biter to see if they can back door cover, Pats will be in the lead by DD for most of the game, but GL to your play.
 
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Posted: #46
LC: How does this stat weigh with you?

New England red zone offensive efficiency is 4th

Miami red zone defensive efficiency is 32nd....LAST

Sure Gronk is out but has that stopped them ever in the red zone? They won a Super Bowl without him last year....right? So basically Jay Cutler is not going to turn the ball over and the Dolphins will be able to take it to a defense that hasn't given up more 17 in 8 weeks? And you also think the Pats sleep walk here in national television? Brady and Belicheck go though the motions in a divisional game with the division title in reach. I haven't watched too many games in the regular season where the Patriots played in 3rd gear....playoffs are a different story but not regular season. Enjoy the game tonite amigo.

 
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Posted: #47
An absolute must win for the dolphins and their slim playoff hopes.  New England has one thing in mind, stay healthy and fresh for next week. Win that and they won't be leaving New England until the super bowl. 
 
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Posted: #48
I've never seen so much trust in Jay Cutler. Am I missing something? Wow. As a guy who lives in Chicago and a die hard Bears fan, I can't wait to see what Jay does tonite. 
 
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Posted: #49
fins fan for life. and I wish it was true. but dont see it happening. hope I am wrong and best of luck!
 
 
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Posted: #50
this is cutlers last meaningful game of his career. 
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