New Regular Season NFL Strategy

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

2 early lines for next week

Jets-Dolphins over 40

First off, I like this line because I think this will go up later on in the week.  If we can get it over 42, we are in great shape to take the under and possible set up nicely for a middle.  However, I like this line even if it doesn't move for several reasons.  The Dolphins defense is good, but you can throw on them.  Palmer had 375 yards today.  We've seen the best and worse of the Jets the last 2 weeks...I think they are somewhere in the middle, and I think Sanchez will be able to move the ball through the air.  Even if Revis is back for the Jets, they will have problems with Reggie Bush, and all those things considered should be enough to get us over 40.

Eagles-Cardinals under 44

The Eagles have a surprisingly good run defense.  They gave up 1 rush td to the Ravens and it wasn't even to Rice.  Last week, no rush td's allowed, and dating back to last year they were great against the run.  No way the Cards will run against these guys.  No matter who is qb, the weapons for Arizona are very limited (except for Fitzgerald obviously)...but as we saw today, the defense is surprisingly good.  Young core, but they play really tough.  Vick has struggled, and I think the Cards D can make him struggle as well.  The one thing I worry about is Peterson or Jackson in the punt return game taking one to the house, or giving great field position to the offense...but even then, this could be a FG game.

Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

4 O/U for next week I like right out of the gate.

In years past, I've been an under bettor...but this is a different NFL.  Offense is king, so I've been trying to take more overs this year.  I like 3 right out of the gate.  Also, overs numbers seem to move over the course of the week, so getting the best number is smart.

Redskins at Buccaneers over 48

Pretty simple explanation for this one.  The Redskins defense is terrible.  Absolutely awful.  They haven't been able to slow down anybody, and I don't see why they will be able to start next week.  RGIII is taking a bunch of shots, but he is still leading an explosive offense...and should get Garcon back.  The Buccaneers defense is above average, but this game should be a shootout with the Redskins trying to keep up.

Bengals at Jaguars over 43

Shhh...don't tell anybody.  Andy Dalton is turning into a really good qb, and he and AJ Green are turning into one of the best qb-wr combos in the league.  Them along with BJGE should be able to move the ball fairly easy.  The Bengals defense is still not very good...I don't see how they keep MJD under 100 yards, and Gabbert is competent enough in this offense to put up a few TD's which should get us over.

Raiders at Broncos over 47

Who do I think will win the matchup of the Raiders Defensive prowess vs. Peyton Manning's football intellect?  Yeah, not even close.  Peyton should be able to move the ball at will against these guys, and the Broncos defense hasn't exactly been stellar.  Palmer is putting up good numbers, and a healthy McFadden is playing well.  All signs point to this being a high scoring affair, and both these teams can move the ball quickly at the end of the game in garbage time, or in hurry up time.

Bears at Cowboys under 44

Two offenses that are struggling, but two defenses that are playing well.  I really like the Bears defense right now.  They are playing real tough, shut down defense on everyone, and I think they keep that up here.  Not sure what has happened to the Cowboys offense the last couple weeks, but they are not clicking.  Bears get Forte back, but Cutler and the offensive line are bad right now.  I can see both teams moving the ball, but not punching in a lot of TD's.  Probably lots of FG's in this game but not enough to get over the number.