New Regular Season NFL Strategy

Fade Greeny picks are in

He likes the Cowboys +4 and the Dolphins -2

That makes the picks Falcons -4 and the Colts +2

Fade Greeny went 2-0 last week
13-10-1 ytd

O/U 2-2
23-20-1

O/U

Panthers under 21.5
Loving the way the Broncos D has been playing lately.  Panthers offense is sputtering, and I don't think they will put up 3 td's against the Broncos D.  I also think Manning will be able to control the clock and the game flow...keep Newton frustrated and off the field.

Raiders over 19.5
Raiders playing the Ravens.  Ravens used to have a good defense, but right now they don't.  With McFadden and Goodson out, look for Palmer to throw the ball a ton.  Sure, there will be turnovers and sloppy play, but I think over the course of the game in real time or junk time, Raiders will be able to put up 20+.

Eagles under 22.5
Eagles offense is in total disarray.  Cowboys have a solid defense that should be able to slow down the Eagles attack, and for whatever reason the Eagles fall apart as soon as they get into the red zone.  Expect turnovers and field goals in this game.

GL...Fade Greeny picks will be in on Friday

Love this thread

Thanks guys...let's hope Greeny goes into his annual tailspin on his picks.

Fade Greeny picks are in

He likes the Cowboys -2 and the Bears-1.5

That makes the picks Eagles +2.5 and the Texans +1.5

2-1 in the O/U

Won a game by .5, and lost a game by .5
25-21-1 ytd

Fade Greeny went 1-1
14-11-1 ytd

O/U plays for this week

Buffalo Over 23.5
Miami's defense has been struggling as of late.  Now they get a short week to prepare for a Buffalo offense that can put up points through the air and the ground.  Also, the Buffalo defense has been awful so this game could get into a shootout.  Regardless, the Bills should have no problem getting to 24 at home here.

Ravens Under 22
This rivalry game has all the makings of a field goal fest.  Pittsburg's defense is playing well, and forget about the 55 points the Ravens put up on Oakland...Oakland is terrible.  Ray Rice hasn't been the beast he has supposed to be and Flacco is inconsistent at best.  Steelers D should be able to contain them.  Steelers will have Leftwich at qb which means the Steelers are probably going to try and control the clock by running the ball.  I see this as a field position game, not a lot of successful offensive possessions...hard to believe either team gets 3 touchdowns.

Jets under 17.5
Rams D at home has been good.  Jeff Fisher has these guys playing really tough, smart football.  Everything the Jets aren't.  Rams should be able to get pressure on Sanchez and get sacks that will stall the drives for the Jets.  Not to mention the running game for the Jets is mediocre.  I see the Jets struggling again on the road to put many points on the board.

GL

Fade Greeny picks are in

He likes the Broncos -8 and the Patriots -9.5

That makes the picks Chargers +8, and Colts +9.5

*What a disappointment last night for the Bills Over 23.5.  They put up 19 in the first half, then no points the second half. 

Going to add a play to the O/U

Bears Over 15.5

This number is really low because there's a backup quarterback, and the 49ers D is really good.  However, my theory is that since there's no film on what Campbell is going to do with the Bears offense, it could keep the 49ers guessing.  Also, don't forget about the Bears defense scoring points, and now they get a backup qb in Kaepernick.  49ers defense has been giving up running yards...I think Chicago will move the ball against them tonight.

Not at home on Monday night. Niners D will be solid

O/U went 1-3
26-24-1 ytd

Had the right idea on the MNF game, but was on the wrong qb. 

Fade Greeny went 1-1
15-12-1 ytd

Let's get on with the best football day of the year....THANKSGIVING!!!!

Fade Greeny picks
Greeny likes the Cowboys -3.5 and the Lions +4

That makes the picks Redskins +3.5 and Texans -4

Now, let's get to the team totals for tomorrow.  Because it's Thanksgiving I thought I'd make a Thanksgiving meal out of the team totals.  I've made picks on every team playing tomorrow and compared them to a particular piece of the Thanksgiving meal.  Hopefully, we have some fun with this...if anyone has any other teams they want to compare to Thanksgiving food, please add on to this thread.  The Jets are my favorite.

Texans Under 27.5
The Texans are the Turkey of this gambling meal.  They look great, all parts are really good and they are made of white and dark meat.
I think Houston wins this game, but I don't see the offensive explosion we saw last week.  The 2 weeks prior they didn't get over 21 points...I see a lot of running from the Texans and a low scoring game.

Patriots under 27.5
The Patriots are the green bean casserole with the creamy soup.  The problem is Gronkowski is the fried onions on top, and the casserole isn't as good without the fried onions.
The Jets know this team well, and Rex Ryan makes it his goal to slow down Brady and Bellichek.  He's still a good Defensive coordinator when he wants to, and I think not having Gronk will hurt them in the red zone. 

Cowboys  Under 25.5
Cowboys are the Cranberry Sauce.  Colorful, people love it, no substance and always shaky.
Romo hasn't turned the ball over a lot recently, but the Cowboys don't consistently score points.  Redskins D is getting better, and I think they can slow down the Cowboys enough to keep them under the total.

Redskins Over 22.5
The Redskins are the Johnny Walker Scotch.  Smooth, flows very quickly, and is only going to get better with age.
I like the Redskins offense to have success here on the short week.  RGIII and Alfred Morris should be able to move the ball with some nice improv plays, and I don't think the Cowboys D will have enough time to prepare for them to hold them under this total.

Lions Under 27
Lions are the Stuffing.  Everyone says they love it, they give it a taste, and it doesn't seem as good as you thought it would.
Both these teams off the short week, I see the Texans D with the edge.  They got humiliated last week, I think Wade Phillips has this unit ready to go.  I'm worried about 4th qt points here though...I actually think the 25.5 total going under the first half is a great bet.

Jets Under 20.5
Jets are the Loud Drunk Uncle at Thanksgiving.  Loud, obnoxious, nobody likes them, and they both think they know more about football than they actually do.
No doubt you can throw on the Pats, but running the ball is tough.  I see the Patriots STUFFING the run, and making Sanchez throw the ball.  I think he can put up numbers, but not multiple TD's. 

If you have any other teams to compare to Thanksgiving dishes, post them here.  I'd love to get a dish for every team.

HEY WHAT UP FOR SAT & SUN

Sorry about the late post.  All Overs today...GL everyone

Bears Over 22.5

Cutler is back, offense should be back on track.  Don't forget about the Bears D and Special Teams that are mad about last week.  Favorite play of the week.

Seattle over 20.5

Miami's Defense has really fallen off.  Teams can now throw and run on this team.  I see Lynch having a good day as well as Russell Wilson. 

Jaguars over 21

Titans D is pretty bad.  Chad Henne gets the start as well as Jalen Parmelee.  These are upgrades over Rashad Jennings and Blaine Gabbert.  I thing the Jags should be able to move the ball with ease today.

Broncos over 27

I know the Chiefs have been playing better, but I don't see them slowing down this offense.  Not to mention the Broncos D and Special Teams have really stepped it up.  I know it's a lot of points to lay, but I see 4 touchdowns for the Broncos today.

O/U went 3-1
Hopefully everyone loaded up on the Bears play.  Spoiler alert (they again are my favorite play)

29-25-1 ytd

Fade Greeny went 1-1
16-13-1

Let's get some O/U this week.

Bears Over 20.5
At home with Cutler at QB, the Bears can score.  Seahawks have a good d, but not as good on the road than at home.  Again, expect some defense and special teams to play a part in this game and affect the scoring.  This line seems to be affected by the Forte injury, but Bush is a good replacement, and Cutler and Marshall will be full strength.

Patriots over 29

Lot of points to lay here.  Patriots score a ton of points.  The defense has really been forcing a lot of turnovers (they even got one of the Jet's lineman's behind to force a turnover against the Jets), and Tannehill has been good, but now he faces a Pats D that had extra time to prepare.  I see Brady moving this team at will, and some turnovers...Pats should be in the 30's.

Lions under 27.5

Colts D has been surprisingly good.  They gave up 59 points to the Pats on the road, but lots of teams will do that.  Now they get a Lions team that is pretty much eliminated from the playoffs, and the Colts are in the playoff hunt.  Since week 5 besides the Pats, they haven't given up more than 20 points.  Even though it's on the road I expect a motivated Colts team to hold an unmotivated Lions team under 27.5.

Panthers under 21.5

Only play I lost last week was taking the Broncos at KC to go over.  They didn't even come close.  As much as I hate making a bet on KC, I'm betting their D plays well against a predictable Panthers offense.  Panthers put up 30 against a Philly D that has given up, and they were helped by several turnovers.  I see this game being fairly sloppy by both offenses, and field goals determining the outcome.  I'd be surprised if Carolina can go to Arrowhead and score over 21.

I'll post Fade Greeny picks on Friday

Fade Greeny Picks

he likes the packers -9 and the panthers -3

That makes the picks Vikings -9 and Chiefs +3

You messed the tracking up early on the season man.

His Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks picks are what you're supposed to base the fade off of. I've been following for years now. The other person was right, if you make the guy choose on one game, he has a 50/50 chance of picking it right because he has no idea.

Greeny's Locks record is 8-14-2 this season up to this point. So you'd be up 6 units minus some juice if you faded him.

He does the picks at around 7:30 on Friday mornings when I'm on my way to work.

If you didn't notice, he actually slipped up a little bit this past Friday. He admitted that he was on the obvious sucker pick and still picked it anyways.

You are correct...I missed that at the beginning of the year...I put in some of his plays on the Thursday and Monday night games.  I made the adjustment to where the plays now are only the fade the Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks.  My mistake earlier in the year.

I've only been playing 1 unit for this system, but I gotta say...next year, I may up the units per play.  It's been year after year that if you faded him on the Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks you would've made money.  Hopefully he tanks the rest of the year.  

Fade Greeny picks are in

He likes Redskins pk (weird...I see the Ravens getting points everywhere), and the Bears -3

That makes the picks Ravens +the points...and the Vikings +3

What's your total record for the season with all these bets? Keep going man!

Fade Greeny is 16-13-1

However, I added some MNF and Thursday Night games at the beginning of the year.  Without those, the system would be 15-8-3 if we are just going off the Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks.

My O/U is 30-28-1 after last week.  Felt pretty good about the picks last week, but went 1-3. 

Here are my picks for this week.

Chargers under 16.5
Steelers have made life really difficult for opposing quarterbacks.  Now they get Phillip Rivers who has looked awful this year.  News coming out that Norv and AJ Smith are gone after this year.  This team has nothing to play for...Steelers are playing for a playoff spot.  I look for the Steelers to play well with Big Ben coming back, and they will run the ball and control the game.  Chargers will struggle the whole game...I'd be surprised if they get over 13 points here.

Dolphins under 14.5
The last 3 times under Harbaugh...after a loss...in all three times...the 49ers have allowed 3 points to opposing teams.  SF will make a statement here that they are for real...look for Gore, Kaep, and the defense to flex their muscle against Tannehill and a Dolphins team struggling to find their identity.

Cardinals over 13
Yes, they are on the road.  Yes, the Cardinals are terrible on offense.  Yes, the Seahawks play great D at home.  However, Skelton will be starting at qb...an upgrade over Ryan Lindley.  Garbage time counts...I think the Cardinals get 2 td's here with Beanie and Fitz back in the mix.

Cowboys at Bengals under 45.5
This is the first Game Total I've played in a while...but the Bengals D has been arguably the best front 4 in the league recently.  I think they get pressure on Romo and make this game tough for Demarco who still isn't 100%.  On the flip side, the Cowboys are playing decent defense (not great)...but their line can slow down BJGE...and don't ignore the injury to Sanu who has been Dalton's favorite redzone target.  Also, Gresham has a hamstring issue...I think offense is tough to come-by here.  I see a lot of field goal attempts (and the Bengals kicker is hurt as well). 

GL this week everyone

Always an enjoyable read ! 

Fade Greeny picks this week

He likes the Lions -6.5, and the Colts +8.5

That makes the picks Cardinals +6.5 and Texans -8.5

O/U for this week.

I'm going all overs...I like several spots that some of the offenses are in.

Packers Over 22.5
The Packers have struggled in the past against the Bears D, but there are too many injuries for the Bears here.  Packers have been running the ball pretty good the last few weeks, and the Bears run D has been falling apart.  I look for Rodgers to be able to move the ball up and down the field all day here.

Jaguars Over 15
Getting Cecil Shorts back this week is huge for their passing game.  Miami can play good D, but they do give up passing yards.  Henne isn't a great QB, but he should be able to move the ball with these receivers.  Jacksonville's running game is down to third and fourth stringers which I think contributes to this low total.  However, their third and fourth string RB's are better than Jennings.  I don't see them scoring a ton, but at least 17 here.

Panthers Over 21
Favorite play of the week.  San Diego pulled a shocking result last week, and in true Charger style I think they have a big let down at home.  Cam will probably have a monster day here.  Last week the Chargers put pressure on a hurt Big Ben...but they will have problems with Newton and company this week.  Even if the Chargers win this game, I see the Panthers well over 20 points this week.

Patriots over 25.5
Patriots always play well at home at night.  This is a game in which people are expecting a great defense to play well against a great offense.  I'm not totally buying the SF defense against this offense.  49ers have given up some big rushing games this year, and the Patriots will figure out how to expose that.  Also, I expect the Pats D to have a good game plan to slow down a rookie QB and a smash-mouth running game.  That should give the Pats some extra possessions.

Looking for a big week here.  Last week went 2-2...I'm above .500 for the year, but I'm really hoping for a strong finish

GL this week everyone

Fade Greeny picks

2-0 on the picks last week!

17-8-3 on the Fade Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks this year

He likes the giants and the seahawks

That makes the picks Ravens +1.5 and 49ers pick.